Awesome post, Zeichner.
"What do you believe is true even though you cannot prove it?" One thing this question instantly brings to my mind is uncertainty. I cannot prove it, but I believe that no belief can ever be determined to be absolutely true or false. I believe I will never have true knowledge. One can stack evidence on either side of a proposition (for or against), but being limited by evidence means that any new and opposing evidence or any misused evidence would undermine a belief. To have true knowledge one would have to be absolutely certain of evidence and absolutely certain that there is no opposing evidence. I don't believe this will ever be the case, as you mentioned, we are an insignificant speck of sand in a vast desert. To claim absolute knowledge of the entire desert as it relates to a proposition is ludicrous.
To your comment on religous/non-religious believers: I think it is not rational to claim that there is, for a fact, the supernatural or not the supernatural. Like I mentioned in the previous paragraph, I don't believe we can ever have true knowledge. However, taking sides based on evidence is rational. I am not agnostic to whether I'm really typing at my keyboard right now or I am hooked up to a virtual reality simulator in a scientist's lab. Even though it cannot be known certain either way, the evidence points to me typing at a keyboard, so I believe I am typing at a keyboard. I think the same can be said about the supernatural. If one truly has no evidence in either direction, than a strictly agnostic belief is the best way to go. However, if there is evidence to believe one way or another, I think it is best to believe in what the evidence points to. Many people believe they have seen god, felt his spirit, etc; to these people I think a belief in god is absolutely rational. They have evidence.