The Rational Choice?
- Burning ghost
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The Rational Choice?
You are on a train track and can pull a lever to change tracks. No matter what you do you have to choose either track A or track B.
On track A there is a man who is 70% likely to murder several people.
On track B there are two men who are both 50% likely to murder several people.
Which track do you take?
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Re: The Rational Choice?
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Re: The Rational Choice?
- Burning ghost
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Re: The Rational Choice?
How about if I changed the percentage chance to say they would murder one person?Steve3007 wrote:I guess it would depend how good I am at doing mental arithmetic quickly and under stress.
- RJG
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Re: The Rational Choice?
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Re: The Rational Choice?
Choose B / avoid A: 70% chance of 1 innocent person dieing. 30% chance of no innocent people dieing.
Choose A / avoid B: 25% chance of 2 innocent people dieing. 50% chance of just 1 innocent person dieing. 25% chance of no innocent people dieing.
I'll choose B and avoid A because, on average, slightly fewer innocent people die with that option.
So it's the trolley problem with some maths thrown in.
-- Updated Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:09 pm to add the following --
RJG beat me to it.
-- Updated Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:18 pm to add the following --
Although, thinking about it, more bad guys die with that option. And since I oppose the death penalty (especially for people who haven't yet committed a crime but are just deemed likely to do so) I should take that into consideration.
OK. I accept that it is actually more than simply the trolley problem with some added maths. It's a good one.
-- Updated Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:25 pm to add the following --
And I shouldn't have said "innocent people" and "bad guys" because those "bad guys" haven't yet committed any crime.
Yes. Very good one.
Although if it took my rusty mental cogs this long to come to this conclusion here, I still think I would have hit them long before I'd made my decision.
- Burning ghost
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Re: The Rational Choice?
If you choose B then that is two innocents die instantly.
If you choose A then that is one innocent dies instantly.
-- Updated October 13th, 2017, 11:41 am to add the following --
Ah! You spotted it
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Re: The Rational Choice?
Also, the two innocents who I kill with my choice were actually, individually, less likely to kill than the other guy. So, on the face of it, that makes them better? No, because we're still only talking about our perception of their likelihood to kill, that shouldn't make a difference.
- Burning ghost
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Re: The Rational Choice?
I have to ask would what if you knew you were on the track that was going to hit two innocent people and that you'd have to pull the lever to change tracks and instead hit one innocent person. Would you still choose to deny any responsibility and let two innocents die instead of one?Maxcady10001 wrote:There are two cases of murder definitely happening. The first one being, I pull the lever, and the second one being, I don't pull the lever on track B, since the chance of them committing murder is one hundred percent. So I would not pull the lever, choosing whichever track the train is already on. I do not believe in murder by omission, so if the train leaves someone alive who is a murderer I am not responsible, since I did not take action.
note: You are not the murder in this situation, merely a person faced with a tough decision.
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Re: The Rational Choice?
- Burning ghost
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Re: The Rational Choice?
Reasoning can blind you from the moral problem. The other post where someone said emotions do more hindrance than a help to reason made me think of the reversing the roles a little.Steve3007 wrote:Funnily enough, in another thread, in a different context, I recently said "being good at maths doesn't necessarily make you a good person.". I guess this puzzle demonstrates that!
If I had posted this in "ethics" I imagine the responses would've been quite different.
-- Updated October 13th, 2017, 12:06 pm to add the following --
What always puzzles me is setting up scenarios where the stakes are much higher. If there was a 50-50 chance that person stood before you would destroy all life on Earth ... at some point we all find a very, very grey area that really makes us shudder at ourselves and our own thoughts.
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Re: The Rational Choice?
Yes, I think that's where these kinds of mental exercises are thought provoking - when you do a "reductio ad absurdum" - i.e. follow the logic until you reach a point where everyone can see the absurdities that it's possible to reach.What always puzzles me is setting up scenarios where the stakes are much higher. If there was a 50-50 chance that person stood before you would destroy all life on Earth ... at some point we all find a very, very grey area that really makes us shudder at ourselves and our own thoughts.
Another extreme that sprang to my mind as soon as I "got" this one: One of the tracks could have a very large number of people on it each with a very small chance of killing someone. The same reasoning that led me to throw away my common sense morality when faced with what looked like a mathematical challenge would lead to me ploughing my train through a whole army of people who are no more likely to commit murder than you or me! Reasoning leads to mass murder!
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Re: The Rational Choice?
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Re: The Rational Choice?
How do we know these percentages? Are we perhaps exhibiting the "soft bigotry of low expectations"? I could expect the best from all of these men and then run down only one. Also, what people would be "murdered" by the men ? Perhaps some or all of these 3 are law-enforcement officers sent by Janet Reno, and the "murders" are only in the eyes of anti-government right -wingers?Burning ghost wrote:Here is the situation (one you may be somewhat familiar with) ...
You are on a train track and can pull a lever to change tracks. No matter what you do you have to choose either track A or track B.
On track A there is a man who is 70% likely to murder several people.
On track B there are two men who are both 50% likely to murder several people.
Which track do you take?
- Sy Borg
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Re: The Rational Choice?
It's more realistic to imagine that the percentages aren't known, so all one would see is three people tied to the tracks. Thus the option would be to kill one person or two.
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