The Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life in our Solar System

[Philobot]

You are already an alien to yourself. Is that nothing?

[Xris]

Once again the BB influences our debate. If the universe is ageless, life might be a constant companion. Life may be so advanced in parts of the universe we may have been engineered by distant spawning. It has been scientifically suggested that comets carry simple life.

[H M]

I think it would have a lot more of these universal implications if the life found in our solar system, if it's found, comes with evidence that it wasn't the result of previous cross-contamination of some sort but rather originally evolved independently. This is particularly the case with microbial life. What do you think?

The crowded interior of galaxies involve more frequent devastating events for planetary environments (supernovas, gamma-ray bursts, gravitational disturbances from closer stars, etc) so no surprise that we're on the quieter, rural outskirts of the Milky Way. But it seems difficult to be rid of the spoiler of local panspermia transactions, of extremophiles migrating in interplanetary space; and the microscopic populations of an applicable planet or moon being intermittently "updated" by these exchanges of foreign invaders. Occasionally massive impacts still happened after the early days of bombardment, to expel hitchhikers on debris.

Exogenesis appears more far-fetched because the distance and time involved between stars would require yet another magnitude of ultra-hardy microorganism. But should comets collect such items or/and have been the original genesis grounds for primitive life, rather than planets, then a minority of these vagabonds would have been straying about from elsewhere before the sun formed (apparently nomad planets without a solar system are now in vogue, also).

Multicellular life didn't arise on Earth till late, and there's accordingly no guarantee of it being an inevitability of evolution even when it comes to a planet of favorable conditions. Less inevitable is intelligent organisms -- South America and other places had their share of primates for millions of years, and it was only in the climate changes of a gradual geological event in Africa that their ascent to sapience and multi-functional dexterity took place. Plus, it required the luck mutation of an extra copy of a brain-development gene appearing in our ancestors about 2.4 million years ago (discovered recently), to allow maturing neurons to migrate farther and achieve more connections.

Even with intelligence, the emergence of civilization and advanced technology is yet another degree of chance in itself. Archaic homo sapien groups bumbled about for hundreds of thousands years without significant progress, and their more gracile successors took tens of thousands of years to finally settle down agriculturally and turn their knack for spiritual-invoking depictions on cave walls into useful abstract symbol undertakings. Various civilizations or cultures indulging in critical and innovative thought had their own opportunity for producing the self perpetuating sci-tech progress that erupted in Europe a few centuries ago, but all reached a certain point and then fizzled into stagnation.

Because of all the chains of fortune underlying the arising of simple life, complex life, open-ended creative life, and the latter just stumbling upon its potential at all -- I tend to be pessimistic about there being anything like us in the rest of this galaxy. And certainly no signs of anything more advanced than us making its presence evident with visibly massive engineering projects carried out by self-assembling nanotech and macrotech robots in countless numbers. But the universe is a large place, extending well beyond the limit of how long light has had time to travel since the Big Bang, so it would be a stretch that we are completely alone, even if they might be a telescopically unobtainable distance away from us. If nothing else, the physics/cosmology extrapolations of the Max Tegmark types would have ourselves being replicated many times in a pseudo-infinite space, should the possible number of arrangements and patterns of matter be exhausted in the course of that.

[Fhbradley]

You are already an alien to yourself. Is that nothing?

Good point.

[Philobot]

You are already an alien to yourself. Is that nothing?

Good point.

It is the metaphysical point. The alien out-there is the alien in-us.

See the microcosm
In macrovision
Our bodies moving
With pure precision
One universal
Celebration
One evolution
One creation
-Lyrics from the song 'Macrovision' (Depeche Mode)

[Eckhart Aurelius Hughes]

A news report from yesterday tells of confirmation that Mars has had the building of life and organic chemistry for most of its history. This is a step closer to finally confirming life has or still does exist on Mars.


***

Because of all the chains of fortune underlying the arising of simple life, complex life, open-ended creative life, and the latter just stumbling upon its potential at all -- I tend to be pessimistic about there being anything like us in the rest of this galaxy

I understand your points, but even the Galaxy is a very big place. If we find extraterrestrial life our solar system, and especially if we find complex extraterrestrial life in our system such as animal-like life, then I would have to believe that there is other life with human-level civilization and/or intelligence in our galaxy. There must be second (or more) generation stars that are billions if not 10s of billions of years older than ours, so if life starts evolving so easily that it originated twice in just our tiny solar system then I think we can expect that in one of the billions of star systems in our galaxy of which presumably then most have microbial life that some of them evolved like we did. Millions of years is not a long time cosmologically. The fact that it took life on Earth millions of years to do this and millions of years to do that doesn't seem to change the fact that -- if billions of planets/moons in our galaxy started to have had microbial life over a billion years before Earth did -- one of them at least presumably has evolved to a human-like level in billions of years. I doubt we would make contact with them in our lifetimes, and maybe not at all. The galaxy is a huge place.

As you wisely point out, the universe is even unimaginably bigger than the galaxy. It's interesting that even if every galaxy one has one human-like civilization -- which would make the chances of intelligent life developing on any given planet one in trillions -- on average that that sill means there's billions if not trillions of other civilizations in the visible universe, and perhaps an infinite number in the invisible parts of the universe or so-called multiverse.

I think we can rule out finding life with human intelligence in our solar system, but finding a separate origin of life in our solar system speaks to how common microbial life would be in the galaxy.

Then the question is what do we estimate the odds that on a planet/moon that has microbial life it evolves within the lifetime of that planet/moon into life with human-like civilization or intelligence? One in a million? One in a billion? one in a 10 billion? One in 100 billion? One in a trillion? We might say it's hard to estimate since so many planets aren't Earth-like and we might want to assume planets need Earth-like qualities to develop life with human-like intelligence. (Of course, we used to think that way even about microbial life, but now that seems to have been incorrect and finding microbial life in our solar system will finally prove it was incorrect.) Yet, that's an easy calculation. Simply put together the odds that a planet is sufficiently earth-like in whatever ways you think it needs to develop life, e.g. being far away from the center of a galaxy, and then multiply that by the odds you think an Earth-like planet will develop human-like intelligence during its lifespan. And if it evolves, how long does it take on average?

[Xris]

So nature is always determined by some secret formula?

[Eckhart Aurelius Hughes]

Statistics and probabilities represent the fact that we are not omniscient beings living in a determined universe. If we say that there is is a 1-in-52 chance the playing card laying face down on the table it an ace of spades that doesn't mean nature -- whether or not it is in fact an ace of spades -- is determined randomly by the statistic. Nature clearly is determined in a much more absolute sense, in fact whether or not the card turned out to be an ace of spades may have been causally determined years prior, but our statistics represent the limits in our knowledge. As we gain more knowledge, we can adjust our statistics and estimation accordingly. If we became omniscient, i.e. had all the knowledge, then we could predict everything with 100% certainty and wouldn't have any statistics. That's all assuming the universe is determined, which is the word you used in your post, Xris.

For one to assert whether or not one bets that intelligent life probably exists in the galaxy, one is making a statistical statement. We have a rough idea how many galaxies are in the visible universe, and roughly how many average stars are in each galaxy on average. We also have a roughly good estimate of how many stars are in our galaxy, and can induce the odds they have a planet or Earthlike planet. If one is predicting intelligent life didn't evolve on any of those in our galaxy, they seem to making an estimation regarding how likely the evolution of intelligent life from microbial life is, in that it must be less than the 1 in the estimated number of planets (or habitable moons) in our galaxy.

Cosmologically, yes, the visible universe does appear to be very uniform.

[Xris]

Expectations of life and intelligent life indicates we are wired to believe in a determined nature. It denies any random act only varied circumstances. The outcome for nature is determined by the formula and the conditions it encounters. It must be restricted by the formula but not stifled by it. Nature, like us, plays the best game it can by the cards it is dealt. What an exciting prospect awaits our children's children.

[Steve3007]

Scott: That article about the discovery of reduced carbon on Mars was interesting.

I've been following the progress of the Spirit and Opportunity rovers as they've slowly crawled across Mars since they landed 8 years ago. Sadly, Spirit seems to have died but Opportunity is still functioning. An amazingly successful mission given that the original planned lifetime was about 3 months! One of the most striking things is the abundant evidence of sedimentary rocks everywhere. One of the most recent pictures shows a vein of gypsum. Clearly there was a lot of liquid water around at one time. I can't wait for the latest rover to land there. Just hope it survives the novel and ambitious landing technique.

[Jklint]

I haven't yet discovered anyone who recognizes any irony in all this. How many species have humans exterminated since they became "the intelligence" of the planet and it's still happening even if it's no-longer intentional. Most people don't care anyways. Yet we consider it a major revelation of life in the universe if we discover a planet with a few amoebas in its pond. Great! What a discovery! Finally "empirical" proof. Oh Joy!

What's the definition of a miracle? Maybe it goes something like this: A possibility with the least probability of ever becoming more than that. If we are the only life in the universe then we and everything still on this planet would be that kind of miracle. As pointed out by most this is virtually impossible. So what's the big deal about finding life on other worlds? There's plenty of chemistry to go around and there is without doubt a great deal of life out there but we're all so quarantined by distance and absolutes - which is almost certainly essential for the development of life - that no matter how much there is we might as well claim ourselves as a majority of one.

Instead of trying to discover a few alien cockroaches - wonder of wonders - maybe we should grant the highest priority to keep what's left from going extinct because what may make this planet even more unique, compared to others that may also support life, is its truly incredible variety and panorama. It reeks with life.

What should it mean to me if whole "civilizations" out there screwed themselves out of existence since I wouldn't know about it any event but if it's verified, for example, that the Siberian Tiger is now officially extinct, even if I was never destined to see one "in person" It would cause allot of pain and considerable amount of rage against a species that keeps on growing like a cancer killing off everything else while searching for some kind of "empirical abundance" elsewhere where the possibility of it not existing is in itself impossible. Ours is a species which has seldom proved itself to be wise or smart, merely technological and intensely savage! We're not ready for communication who can barely even communicate among ourselves.

Not least, Hawkins - counter to Carl Sagan who was so optimistic and in favor of striving for extra terrestrial communication - understood how dangerous it can be not knowing who or what you're talking to. Only a few times in history have WE ever respected a civilization equal to our own that was defeated.

[Eckhart Aurelius Hughes]

What I think would be amazing about finding an "alien cockroach" is the implications that would have regarding the abundance of complex life, and thus I argue intelligent life, throughout the galaxy and universe. Sure most of us don't think we are alone in the universe, but the distances are so much greater between galaxies than between stars within a galaxy that that doesn't compare to suddenly thinking there is numerous other human-like civilizations in our own galaxy, some that may be billions of years ahead of us in terms of evolution and/or technology. It would make me believe the existence of current galactic societies is probable.

[Philobot]

I haven't yet discovered anyone who recognizes any irony in all this. How many species have humans exterminated since they became "the intelligence" of the planet and it's still happening even if it's no-longer intentional. Most people don't care anyways. Yet we consider it a major revelation of life in the universe if we discover a planet with a few amoebas in its pond. Great! What a discovery! Finally "empirical" proof. Oh Joy!

Jklint, You are probably puzzled because you expect them to philosophize but they do not. It is obvious why for them the terran cockroach is not half as interesting as the cockroach from Alpha-Centauri. Why? Simply because the latter is far away and the former in your kitchen closet. If you understand what science does, you do understand why distance matters. So basically, as are most inquiries in this forum, these are scientific inquiries, not philosophical ones.

[Eckhart Aurelius Hughes]

If I see one roach crawling down the road on my way to work, I'm not very interested. If I see one bed bug on my mattress before I go to sleep, I am quite interested, not because one bed bug is interesting but because one bed bug implies many. I believe discovering one 'alien cockroach' would massively increase the reasonable estimates regarding how many alien species exist in the galaxy and indeed the visible universe. It's these massive implications of and the alleged or potential meaning of those implications of the scientific discovery of some so-called 'alien cockroach' -- i.e. the philosophy of science, among other things -- that I find very interesting. Of course, interest may be subjective, and I don't think we can hold it against those who are more interested in terrestrial zoological than evidence of a exponentially larger amount of species in the galaxy, evidenced by the hypothetical discovery of a second origin of life in the solar system.

In cosmological scales, it does seem distance matters in regards to interest. But it's the distance closer to us. Most don't seem to doubt that there are other species in the universe, but it's not as interesting as discovering the galaxy is filled with life because everything in the galaxy is so incomprehensibly closer.

[Bermudj]

It will be very exciting.