I believe atheism is on a natural rising trend given that as humans evolved they are naturally more rational and less insecure [improved neural inhibitors] over their existential dilemma.One crucible for theories of religion is their ability to predict and explain patterns of belief and disbelief. Yet, religious non-belief is often heavily stigmatized, potentially leading many atheists to refrain from outing themselves even in anonymous polls. We used the unmatched count technique and Bayesian estimation to indirectly estimate atheist prevalence in two nationally representative samples of 2000 U.S. adults apiece.
Widely-cited telephone polls (e.g., Gallup, Pew) suggest USA atheist prevalence of only 3-11%.
In contrast, our most credible indirect estimate is 26% (albeit with considerable estimate and method uncertainty).
Our data and model predict that atheist prevalence exceeds 11% with greater than .99 probability, and exceeds 20% with roughly .8 probability. Prevalence estimates of 11% were even less credible than estimates of 40%, and all intermediate estimates were more credible. Some popular theoretical approaches to religious cognition may require heavy revision to accommodate actual levels of religious disbelief.
https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/edzda/
Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
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Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
To me since they are not a practicing catholic, they are not catholic. Are they therefore an atheist? Could be, but not necessarily. More likely to be agnostic, statistically.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
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For many years I completed the census as "C of E" because that's what I was Christened. I'd stopped believing in God at around age nine but thought that "C of E" was correct and that I could be fined if it was found that I just chose a category. Back in the day that question was broadly considered about as cut-and-dried as answering questions about age or nationality.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
It's funny because that was the attitude towards the "C of E" in England too. It was the religious affiliation for people who aren't religious - the default answer.For many years I completed the census as "C of E" because that's what I was Christened...
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
Spectrum wrote: I believe atheism is on a natural rising trend given that as humans evolved they are naturally more rational and less insecure [improved neural inhibitors] over their existential dilemma.
That may be true if your concept of theism is so narrow as to imagine that any "God" worthy of the title must be akin to an old man with a white beard.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
Dark Matter wrote:Spectrum wrote: I believe atheism is on a natural rising trend given that as humans evolved they are naturally more rational and less insecure [improved neural inhibitors] over their existential dilemma.
That may be true if your concept of theism is so narrow as to imagine that any "God" worthy of the title must be akin to an old man with a white beard.
Please share your broader concept of theism.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
In response to the following statement in the initial post:
"I believe atheism is on a natural rising trend given that as humans evolved they are naturally more rational and less insecure [improved neural inhibitors] over their existential dilemma."
Is your belief that atheism is on the rise a result of the study you cite? If so then I am not sure how much the study tells you about the epistemological practices of your fellow humans (atheist and theist alike). If not, then you may need to supply an argument to account for your belief. Which leads to my second question:
You also say that the trend toward atheism is "natural". What do you mean here by "natural"? Do you mean "inevitable" or "the result of processes occurring exclusively in nature" or something else? You seem to associate atheism with an increase in rationality among the population. Am I on the right path?
thanks for reading.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
Semtek wrote:Hi!
In response to the following statement in the initial post:
"I believe atheism is on a natural rising trend given that as humans evolved they are naturally more rational and less insecure [improved neural inhibitors] over their existential dilemma."
Is your belief that atheism is on the rise a result of the study you cite? If so then I am not sure how much the study tells you about the epistemological practices of your fellow humans (atheist and theist alike). If not, then you may need to supply an argument to account for your belief.
It is based on my own observations, readings plus pew researches and that study I cited.
500 years ago we hardly hear of discussion of atheism.
Then we have the age of enlightenment with lots of discussion relating to atheism.
With the progress of Science and rational knowledge we hear of churches being abandon every where. It is not a certainty but such events do give a clue atheism is on the rise when matched with the various discussion of atheism.
Not too long ago I was a theist. Beside my own abandonment of theism I am getting news from friends they are turning to be non-theists.
With the emergence of the internet the number of discussions in terms of forums, blogs, etc. relating to atheism is also on the rise.
Buddhism and Jainism are basically atheistic religions. Since 50+ years ago Buddhism has been on the rise in the West.
I have been reading studies from Pew the number of atheists are around 10% and rising, but this study is estimating the number of atheists in the USA is around 25%.
For more than a millennium, scholars have noticed a curious correlation: Atheists tend to be more intelligent than religious people.
It's unclear why this trend persists, but researchers of a new study have an idea: Religion is an instinct, they say, and people who can rise above instincts are more intelligent than those who rely on them.
"Intelligence — in rationally solving problems — can be understood as involving overcoming instinct and being intellectually curious and thus open to non-instinctive possibilities," study lead author Edward Dutton, a research fellow at the Ulster Institute for Social Research in the United Kingdom, said in a statement.
https://www.livescience.com/59361-why-a ... igent.html
The above study also support the trend that atheism is rising because intelligence is naturally rising as human evolved into the future.
The truth will always prevail.
The ideal of God is illusory and impossible to be real and theism is basically leveraged on human psychology. As the average human grow to be more psychological secure, there will be a less dependency on theism as a security blanket.
The above personal evidence, reading and various study support my point atheism is on a rising trend towards the future.
Which leads to my second question:
You also say that the trend toward atheism is "natural". What do you mean here by "natural"? Do you mean "inevitable" or "the result of processes occurring exclusively in nature" or something else? You seem to associate atheism with an increase in rationality among the population. Am I on the right path?
thanks for reading.
Note the link above on atheists in general being more intelligent than the faith-based religious [theists].
The progress for the average human to be more intelligent is natural.
Note the things students study 100 years ago compared to what they are studying at present with the internet in the background.
The progress of the average human psychology towards existential security is also a natural growth.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
I don't think any rational person would assumed they had reached the end point of understanding. It is the only religions, especially the Abrahamic where believers had been told their God had revealed all critical knowledge in the holy texts.Greta wrote:Spectrum, if increased atheism is an expression of increasingly rational approaches by human to questioning the nature of reality, may I suggest that in every period of history many assumed that they had reached the end point of understanding. There may be another twist in this tale, especially given all the odd and "spooky" unexplained things. Maybe the answer isn't as simple as either side maintains?
There is definitely an increasing trend towards atheism since 500 years ago in relation to increase in knowledge and critical thinking skill within humanity.
However this increase is very slow going because of the terrible existential dilemma that is holding the majority back from abandoning theism.
Most theists are not aware of the basis [subliminal existential threat of mortality] that is holding them back and compelling them to theism but [argue how they like] theists are quite aware theirs is merely a faith-based belief, i.e. beliefs without proofs nor justifiable reasons, baseless and groundless.
What is 'odd' and 'spooky' and all the mysteries beyond the known [and desperately reifying the abstract entities] are merely due to insecurity arising from subliminal existential threat of mortality.
I am optimistic once there are fool proof alternatives to deal with the subliminal existential threat of mortality, the majority of theists will abandon theism.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
First, I want to say that Spectrum's analysis is offensive to anyone who sees the world outside modernity's mythological narrative. As David Bentley Hart puts it:LuckyR wrote:Please share your broader concept of theism.Dark Matter wrote: (Nested quote removed.)
That may be true if your concept of theism is so narrow as to imagine that any "God" worthy of the title must be akin to an old man with a white beard.
It's an exhilarating and intoxicating promise, but it is also a fairytale only the gullible can believe.The story the modern world tells of itself now is the story of how we Westerners finally learned to be free, for the first time ever; and so it is also necessarily a story about the bondage from which we have escaped. After all, the freedom we now possess in the aftermath of Christendom has vouchsafed us (has it not?) so many and such prodigious marvels: free inquiry, which has given rise to all the marvelous achievements of modern science, technology, and medicine, and which (we are told) the church once violently discouraged; all those political liberties that only a secular polity can guarantee and that (as we all know) the church always feared and strove to suppress; the freedom from sectarian violence and “warsof religion” that only a rigorously secular regime can preserve and that (obviously) Christian society was unable to provide; and the immense wealth produced by modern market economies, which are nourished by the incalculable diversity of consumer wants and needs, and which (everyone agrees) should never be limited by the imposition of “private” religious concerns upon society as a whole.
Religion is a wholly natural phenomenon, and in fact there seems to be a genetic predisposition for it so it's not just "memes." There's more to it than "mere belief." So-called atheistic religions always emphasize that it is a creator God they do not believe in. Jains, for example, do believe in God, not as a creator, but as perfect being. Buddhism, too, has deities. So why Spectrum would call them "atheistic" is something I do not understand. I can only assume it's a manifestation of prejudice against the Western idea of God as the result of watching too much televangelism and reading too little.
There is no question that the idea of God is undergoing a metamorphosis of sorts, but it's hardly going away. It would be interesting to live long enough to see how it pans out. One thing for sure: atheism will always be a minority view.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
I was hoping to address your argument.
You question the rationality of theists on the basis of increased atheism (where atheism includes all non-monotheistic faiths). You say that atheism is increasingly prevalent (among a population) and cite your evidence. You associate the increase in atheism with an alleged increase in general rationality among humans (or as you say “knowledge and critical thinking skill”). I am not sure that this shows that theistic belief is irrational. It is not necessary that accepting scientific theory rules out rational theism.
Also, I may question the notion that increased general rationality among people has occurred entirely with respect to a secular body of knowledge and that no such increase has occurred in religious knowledge and understanding. Also, it is not obvious that there is some general, over-arching improvement in our understanding of the world. Scientific knowledge is ever-expanding and improving in that sense. However there is much more that is subjected to reason than what is contained within the specific epistemology of science. In some areas there may be regression in our rationality perhaps specifically caused by our trend toward belief that all of reality is natural ( a claim which is itself not a claim established by science).
There may be other causal factors at play in the decline of theism in addition to people being persuaded on a rational level (whatever that is) by emerging scientific ideas or the ever reducing gap in which God can remain as an explanatory factor.
You also write that “the ideal of God is illusory and impossible to be real.” Can you elaborate?
You also suggest some subconscious and irrational cause of religious activity that you call the “subliminal existential threat of mortality”. This seems to be to be a quite explicit function of non-naturalistic worldviews to address this very question. That may be a virtue rather than some kind of a limit on the value of religion.
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Re: Study: How Many Atheists Are There? Be Suprised!
I want to believe you have done all the studies you claim, even though they have lead you to some peculiar conclusions, but then you write stuff that suggests you have made no effort at all.Spectrum wrote: E.g. in the Quran, Allah stated the Sun settled into a muddy pond. Scientific knowledge contributed to expose such irrationality out of psychological desperations.
For those that are interested, the verse about the sun setting in a pond comes as part of a story about a being that travels not only past the setting sun, but also past the rising sun, and builds a great wall to keep the giants Gog and Magog from destroying our world, which wall will stand until the Day of Judgement. It is plainly not meant to be understood in the same way as a physics text book. In the same chapter is the story of the 'seven sleepers', who remain sleeping in a cave for 300 years. Did you read that and conclude that religion claims we can, or do, sleep for 300 years?
I think you must be a terrible sufferer from 'confirmation bias'. It is no good spending years studying if you do so with a closed frame of mind! You have some theory and everything you read or come across is interpreted to fit with that theory.
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