Why Donald Trump disappointed me
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
Again I'm not sure where you go to get your science news? The consensus is that global warming will cause a rise in the sea level. This will cause upheaval. Mostly in the third world. Developed countries will be able to protect themselves at the expense of other countries.
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
No, that was not the prevailing consensus nor was it the view pushed in politics, it was once believed it was genetically determined before birth. It was stupid then and it is stupid now. The epigenetics "revolution" did not really begin until circa 2010. Genes are more complicated than scientists previously imagined. But I don't want to get off into some side-bar about homosexuality, I was only pointing out I heard the same thing years ago from people online: "You're not an expert and most scientist say it so therefore we must believe them."Eduk wrote:Homosexuality is a spectrum influenced by genes and environment (physical and societal). I think that has been the consensus for some time.
Anyways, I stumbled across this old man on youtube named Freeman Dyson. At about the 20:08 point of the video interview (one can fast forward to that to check my claim) he says roughly, that the general public has more common sense on climate change than those in academia. I will interpret that from him as: "just use a little common sense."
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs&t=44s
"Freeman Dyson on the Global Warming Hysteria April, 2015"
So, his statement about "common sense" does not seem to imply he pressures all of us laymen on earth to have blind faith in all claims coming from out of the scientific establishment.
You keep saying that. But that is not what the Corbett Report video was demonstrating. The climate change articles were self contradictory. Albeit science is supposed to be able to recognize errors over time and them adjust for proper corrections. But when you ad hoc to save your underlying belief exactly how faithful is one to orthodox scientific inquiry? Not very much I would say.But the point is that anyone (scientists included) can be wrong, but science is able to change. How do we know science made mistakes? Because science proved they were mistakes.
So, here again is that 5 minute or so Corbett Report video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huKY5DzrcLI&t=110s
Climate Change is Unfalsifiable Woo-Woo Pseudoscience
Published on Dec 8, 2015
SHOW NOTES: https://www.corbettreport.com/?p=17205
Karl Popper famously said, “A theory that explains everything explains nothing.” So what do you make of the theory that catastrophic manmade CO2-driven “climate change” can account for harsher winters and lighter winters, more snow and less snow, droughts and floods, more hurricanes and less hurricanes, more rain and less rain, more malaria and less malaria, saltier seas and less salty seas, Antarctica ice melting and Antarctic ice gaining and dozens of other contradictions? Popper gave a name to “theories” like this: pseudoscience.
You keep speaking to me about consensus in science as if I am supposed to regard that as something infallible?Again I'm not sure where you go to get your science news? The consensus is that global warming will cause a rise in the sea level. This will cause upheaval. Mostly in the third world. Developed countries will be able to protect themselves at the expense of other countries.
Freeman Dyson gives his views about the likelihood in the rise of the sea level and catastrophe resulting in the video interview below, with Charlie Rose. An interesting video anyways given the old man is kind of humorous. Like myself he views nuclear weapons as the greatest threat currently to mankind. Not climate change. A close second I would put the potential threat of drug-resistant diseases spread across nations. The one thing I think needs to be global is public health rather than still tackling it from 20th century national perspective.
The anti-Trump protestors were marching with signs pointing to an image of planet earth with words like, "I'm with her." Basically, they are saying Trump is against planet earth and nature.
At about the 3:25 mark he is asked about the rising sea and provides a reply: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q5WeoZER8s
Professor Freeman Dyson in Charlie Rose (2009)
- Roel
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
Hi Dolphin, I understand that you strongly disagree with me on Trump. The choice however was Hillary or Trump, and for me and many others Hillary is one of the most hated politicians.Dolphin42 wrote:So, in your mind, Bush woke up one morning and said "let's have a war on terrorism"? The only way you will have any hope of understanding why global events unfold as they do is if you try to actually look at the chains of events - cause and effect, without the benefit of hindsight, and try to put yourself in the position of the human beings involved.Bush threw everyone in a war on terrorism, it created many problems and barely anyone wanted it except for the party establishment.
This is completely consistent with Trump's clear central aim in life: for Trump to be Seen to Win. This has always been his stated aim, so I applaud his consistency. We absolutely cannot say that we weren't warned. The best way for a president to be seen to win is to beat somebody who is playing the same game as him - another president. So the aim is to beat Obama and to win, win win. Everything else is secondary.My disappointment came after the strike of the Syrian air base, applauded by many, I didn't like it because it wad breaking his promise to not intervene, and if we learned ONE thing, it is that regime changes and heavy intervention never ended well.
That is why we get a "complete and utter repeal of nasty, ugly horrible Obamacare with a beautiful, beautiful total and utter replacement" when neither Trump nor most Republicans actually know or care what is in the replacement. Doesn't matter. So long as it can be claimed that it isn't Obamacare. And that's why we get a nice neat comparison between the response to two gas attacks. One from weak, pathetic, red-line-drawing Obama and one from strong decisive Trump.
Why on Earth did you think that he would refrain from intervening in other countries' wars?
To answer your last question: Trump constantly criticized this in his campaign and initially he mainly listened to Steve Bannon as his chief strategist, a nationalist. The US has been responsible for so many, what can be defined as, war crimes, that I thought this nationalist approach was an interesting step and could lead to the development of the US to a normal country, servings its' own interests without
Trump however seems to be easily influenced, especially by his family. The downside is that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, seems to be propagating an establishment agenda, but because he is married to Ivanka, he has a lot of influence, ad family is important to Trump. I disagree that Trump would be a psychopath. A narcissist? Yes, to some extent, but narcissism is needed to success and especially as a president it is important to believe in yourself. Trump shows a lot of care for his family, and he shows affection for some people, which is in my opinion genuine. Many presidents were psychopaths, but these fake emotions of supposedly caring for others... I haven't really observed them in Trump. He is very open about himself and isn't afraid to get angry when it's needed.
He also, as opposed to the Mainstream Media portraying Trump as the biggest sexist alive, respected the women in his companies very well and valued them. A psychopath doesn't do that, a psychopath sees them as merely tools or trash.
-- Updated May 23rd, 2017, 10:26 pm to add the following --
Trump is indeed very rich, and as an outsider that is needed to fund your campaign without giving in to political funders which want you to become their spokesman for interests which aren't the interests of the people.Eduk wrote:Roel, for those on the outside looking in Trump being inconsistent is the equivalent of saying if I drop my pen it will fall and hit the floor. It's so obvious that it's weird to even mention it. From the inside however it is very difficult to notice inconsistencies so I for one applaud your intellectual honesty. Please don't take this to mean that I support Clinton, we can both agree that Clinton (either one) is not someone who we would choose to be the president (not that I get a choice, but you get the point).
I would like to make some points which I hope you will find interesting.
1. If all racists vote for X and you vote for X that does not mean you are a racist. Everyone should agree with that. But is it an issue that all racists are voting for X and you are voting for X, is that a problem? Is furthering the political ideals of racists a good or a bad thing? It might well be a necessary evil when it comes to voting as I've never been in the situation where I could vote for an ideal candidate, but is my point worth any time thinking about?
2. Politicians from within the establishment almost by definition have to work within the rules of the establishment. If the establishment is fundamentally corrupt then would it even be possible for someone who wasn't corrupt to rise within the party system? This is basically agreeing with you. But is Trump not a part of the establishment being that he is insanely rich? It's not like he had no political power before his foray into politics? You also, even if we agree that he isn't establishment, have to show that he is better than the establishment. Being different in and of itself is not enough, anyone can be different.
3. I don't understand the fear people have of PC? To my mind it's a mostly irrelevant annoyance, like children's birthday parties. I can't think of real harm which policies accused of being PC have caused. Most of the policies stated aims are to prevent harm. I mean it's a good thing that people don't discriminate against other people right? I guess it's discriminating against people who discriminate, but is that a bad thing? You could of course argue that the policies don't work or they flawed in other ways, that's reasonable, but all I'm asking for is specific examples?
4. Negative effects of immigration are contentious amongst various disciplines (say economics). You will find respectable people saying it is of net benefit and respectable people who say it is not. Having a discussion is perfectly valid, the problem is in assuming that either side is 100% right to a massive degree. It's possible for example that migration is of net benefit but only by 0.00001%, so stopping it or allowing it would make no difference (overall). Basically my point is that this matter is extremely complex and not settled.
5. I don't know of anyone ever saying only white men owned slaves? That is clearly wrong and I agree with you 100%. If you are getting shot down by saying that I'd like to hear some examples?
6. I don't see Trump as a bastion for fighting corruption, sorry. I may be off the mark here but in my mind the average Trump voter isn't voting for him because they are racist (at least no more racist than anyone else on average) but out of despair in the state of politics and hope (not expectation) that Trump will do anything to improve matters?
In regard to the political establishment, Trump was an outsider.
What Trump is currently doing, might have effects which make people realize what happens if a corrupted political system reigns for too long not in the general interest of the public. Someone will come to disarrange almost literally everything and give a signal that something is wrong. I regard Trump as a wake-up call for the normal politicians which will hopefully make them realize that not serving the people in honesty will have consequences. So therefore I still regard Trump as something good.
As for your question about racists, you might better ask yourself the question: Is Trump propagating racist ideas? He doesn't advocate for racist laws etc. If a part of his electorate consists of racists, so be it, the same might apply to other normal things in daily life which you choose, which might be preferred by racists. Everything better than Hillary.
Many people see chaos on the outside with Trump, this is however an image portrayed by the western media, in the past infiltrated by the CIA, which can't be trusted generally. It is very well possible that Trump is in fact trying to fight the system from the inside, and there are theories in line with that, these are however not solid, but he is portrayed as some madman to discredit him.
- Grotto19
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
Please do me a kindness and don’t quote me nor address my arguments. You can call it a win for you if that makes it palatable for you, but I would greatly appreciate if you do not waste a moment of my attention again.Supine wrote:I live in the United States. And its is like living in Nazi Germany. Not because of Trump per se but because of the corrupt Democrats and Republicans with intelligence community that put out a level of propaganda today that might even exceed the levels of propaganda Nazi Germany put out.Grotto19 wrote:“Trump is on a learning curve” Yeah that’s was my biggest point. The job requires training beforehand of which Trump had none of.
“Expecting Trump to be superman on day one…” Give me a break are you serious. I would be thrilled if we could get through a week without him humiliating my nation. My highest aspirations for this clown is we don’t start a nuclear war. This is what you get when you put your crazy drunk uncle in charge of everything because he thinks he knows how to run a country. Spooler alert it is a really bad idea and lots of people will get hurt.
Trump is controlled by Neo-cons but they existed in the US Government before Trump. It is their policy agenda, along with factions of the Democrats that want to wage a secular religious crusade across earth, that will put all pieces in place for an accidental nuclear war. That along with Democrats and Republicans being influenced by the industries that make military weapons for wars including bombs.
So, it makes no sense to buy into propaganda that somehow Trump came along and put a loving, non-aggressive, non-military patrolling around earth United States of America, into some unique and historically unprecedented confrontation with another country or countries. I mean... look at US history. Just about every generation it goes to war. It is the only nation on earth to have ever used nuclear weapons on another country, on civilians.
As for "lack of experience," critics of Obama said the same thing, and then as now I find it invalid for both him and Trump. And I am one, gauged from a brief personality assessment created by a female agent in the FBI, that highly values experience. So, yeah, if you're a right-wing Brazilian politician that has made a career out of politics, wheeling and dealing, then you are experienced in the system of corruption in Brazilian politics. Within that corrupt system you can build your network, alliances, and learn to become a good player. But it does not necessarily follow--keeping with the case of Brazil (but any country)--that being an experienced political player in a system of corruption necessarily benefits "the people." Nor does it mean an outsider can't come in and turn out in short time to become a great elected representative for "the people."
I think as I pointed out before that arguably the greatest President Brazil ever had worked with his hands in blue collar labor his whole life and had no more than a 3rd grade education. President Lula.
Hillary Democrats and McCain Republicans were already and remain the greatest threat to all life on earth. Not just human life. As doctor Helen Caldicott says... "evolution" being annihilated on planet earth from mass nuclear war. Although, she may be exaggerating to some degree (or maybe not), I get her point.“You may critique Trump based on his current performance but you cannot conclude he is a failure until the completion of his term.” This is true. And as I am a theist I pray regularly that he is not as bad a nightmare as I think. I don’t believe prayers work btw but hell its only billions of lives on the line.
Propaganda teaches trust in the corrupt system with its established paid-off politicians. Just as it can be used in the private sector to promote trust in SERCO a company that has its hands in education, prisons, running nuclear weapons facilities, and cyber security.
The Biggest Company You've Never Heard Of
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hSjloOXzXk&t=40s
Dr. Helen Caldicott at the San Francisco Public Library
Published on Aug 14, 2016
Nobel Peace Prize Nominee Dr. Helen Caldicott, known as the world’s foremost anti-nuclear activist, speaks about whether nuclear disarmament is achievable.
Dr. Helen Caldicott speaks about the uranium and medical after affects of the invasion of Iraq in this short interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ujwoe0BViys
So, contrary to the CIA or Democrats or Republicans Trump did not get in office as President and create some historically unique chance the United States might end up in war nor nuclear war.
Trump will simply be a puppet for the corrupt American political system that pushes wars and more money be spent on buying military weapons.
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
What I am genuinely interested though is in the process of belief. Let's try to ignore specific claims (or at least try to stick to facts which we both agree are facts) but instead focus on the process.
If I said I had a car, would you believe me? How much would you believe me? What would you be prepared to wager on that belief? And why would you believe me, or not?
I think this is a more interesting topic. Do you agree?
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
Does that teach you rate people by their character?Spectrum wrote:I have read a lot [books and reports] about Trump and have an idea of his character. Like every human, he has his pros and cons. One of my forte is Strategic Management and Planning (MBA).And how do you arrive at the conclusion that Trump would tackle the issues better than Clinton?
So, he must be capable because he's rich? His actual track record, bankruptcies and all, is not that compelling, but he certainly has made money, even if there's considerable disagreement as to how much.Spectrum wrote:Trump's egoism and narcissism [ugly socially] fortunately for him generate a very high internal drive for being result oriented based on high quality and efficiency. The results of these drives are proven by actual performances in terms of his products and financial success.
Is this your MBA, or Ann Rynd? It doesn't sound like any strategic management theory I've ever heard of.Spectrum wrote:What is critical in all human endeavors is that internal drive for success plus the necessary competences to produce results.
Ok, so rather than being based on concrete results, you're basing his competance on how much his declared views match... your own views.Spectrum wrote:There are many variables I have not discussed here. One very obvious point is Trump's very negative views of radical Islam and his various statements on Islam.Eduk wrote:How do you arrive at the conclusion of the weighting of terrorism.
Hilary and Obama dare not even mention 'Radical Islam' or any linkage of the terrorism committed by SOME Muslims to Islam. How can there be results if one is not willing to identify the root causes. Worst is, Hilary is diverting off tangent from the ultimate root cause, i.e. Islam.
As such I am giving Trump a high score over Hilary's low score.
Taking your ratings, you're giving Trump a high score for the issue being important to you, and speeches in which his views resembling your views, rather than anything he's actually done.
Can you see how that's an entirely subjective judgement, rather than being objective in any way?
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
Yeah, it got side tracked into the climate change issue but the string pullers that be side track the anti-Trump masses into the climate change issues. That, the climate changing, they believe is the threat to themselves and children that would occur at a future concert in Manchester, England. Critics of the string pullers are portrayed as lunatics for not supporting the planned overthrow of the governments of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran.Eduk wrote:Supine I feel like I'm getting sidetracked. I suggest you take up your concerns with climate change (or the CIA) with the relevant bodies, I have no influence even if I were to agree.
So, I just here British authorities are saying the recent Manchester bomber had links to ISIS and traveled to Libya and Syria.
Libya fell into the divided hands of theocratic goons like Al Qaida, Muslim Brotherhood, and some off-shoot of ISIS (calling themselves ISIS) after we used Al Qaida to extra-judicially lynch Gaddafi. And part of Syria is controlled by the country of ISIS. With ISIS being an acronym like the USA and ISIS being translated more or less as The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Assad is a violent opponent of ISIS and is fighting to drive them out of Syria. We oppose Assad's efforts to do so.
I wonder what Malcolm X would say about this Manchester bombing were he still alive today, recalling his past comments about "chickens coming home to roost" or something like that? Yet, so many liberals in England thought Hillary was of such an innocent variety by helping orchestrate the lynching (without trial as all lynchings are) of a leader of an African country, and spreading misery across that nations as it devolved into factions fighting and chaos.
But be at rest. Trump whom I voted for has agreed to render himself at the service of the same malicious string pullers that handled Hillary, Obama, and George W. Bush.
The planned take down of Libya, Syria, and Iran occurred before Obama ever became President or Trump became President. Irrespective of who becomes President.... surprise, surprise, the same plan continues to go underway.
I do feel sorry for that little 8 year-old girl and some of the young people killed and injured in that Manchester bombing. Little kids no matter where in the world be it Europe, Africa, Asia, Saudi Arabia, the USA... have nothing to do with the machinations of us adults. Yet, in our wicked schemes we ensnare them in the violent results of our hates, greed, and never satisfied lust for power.
Yeah, it is an interesting question. It can be an interesting question if you applied the question to interpreting (beliefs) Trumps recent speech (I doubt he wrote the speech as few world leaders do) in Saudi Arabia.What I am genuinely interested though is in the process of belief. Let's try to ignore specific claims (or at least try to stick to facts which we both agree are facts) but instead focus on the process.
If I said I had a car, would you believe me? How much would you believe me? What would you be prepared to wager on that belief? And why would you believe me, or not?
I think this is a more interesting topic. Do you agree?
I interpret his speech as saying he will carry on the will of the string pullers that gave orders to Bush, Obama, Hillary, and now him by overthrowing the governments of Syria and Iran. And I would not be surprised if officials from Saudi Arabia helped advise on the crafting of that speech.
I want to be clear about this. Assad's Syria and Iran are no threat to people in Milwaukee going to local concerts. I don't care how Trump or anyone tries to spin it. But the American efforts to allow ISIS to expand throughout Syria and to throw Iran into chaos in which some theocratic terrorist groups might enter to fill a void is a threat to people in Milwaukee going to local concerts. The Manchester case example ought to provide evidence of that.
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
I have no reason to doubt you. As cars are so normal and common place. Less common than table spoons but more common than personal helicopters. If you told me you have more than 1 million cars I might question that in my mind.Eduk wrote:So if I said I had a car, would you believe me?
I would believe Trump if he told me he's had sex with a model and sexy (subjective) looking women on more than one occasion. In contrast I have doubted a disheveled, skinny, homeless man that on more than one occasion claimed nice looking professional women were flirting with him but he just ignores them.
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
How much would you be willing to bet that I had a car if I offered you odds of 2/1?
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Re: Why Donald Trump disappointed me
I don't gamble.Eduk wrote:So you believe I have a car because it's common place and you have no reason to doubt me (entirely reasonable in my opinion).
How much would you be willing to bet that I had a car if I offered you odds of 2/1?
But I think the point you are getting at is that probability is useful in informing decisions for many things. I don't disagree with you.
Calculating probability for certain things requires dense and accurate information. Gaps in knowledge, "black swans," and one let alone many variables not accounted for renders a probability math calculation inaccurate. This is what I believe old man Freeman Dyson was getting at when he pointed out, giving an example, that scientific weather predictions have become remarkably good for 5 days out, but science currently lacks the tools to accurately predict the weather even locally 1 month from now let alone 10 years from now. He was applying this example to the dilemma of climate predictions in which case he says there remains a great deal about climate we do not understand and many variables never inputted into the models run in computers.
So, if I were to be willing risk money on the probability (on gambling) on you having a car or your ability to manage a mining company in Latin America and turn it into to a multi-billion profitable company, I would have to know a lot more information about you. Due diligence as they call it in the financial and investment world.
Even just betting (risking money) on you having a car I would need to know more information on you. Run a background check, know your credit history, verify you are employed or have a source of income, check personal and professional references.
That said... I have on a few rare occasions put pennies and quarters in a slot machine in a casino and hit the buttons or pulled the handle. I think the most I ever won was $0.50.
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