Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
-- Updated Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:50 am to add the following --
(Sorry. Lots of typos there. Should have checked it.)
- Sy Borg
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
However, it's true that Kim is in a league of his own for babyish tantrums. There is no answer unless China helps, but they like having NK as a barrier between them and US troops in the south. I also doubt that the Chinese would much worry about any existential threats to the Japanese.
NK looks like a wicked problem to me. Let's hope all it's just words ...
Steve, they say that in prison, inmates tend to leave the "mad dog" types alone. I suppose the mad "dog stance" is akin to that of a porcupine - KEEP YOUR DISTANCE. A strong defensive stance, although "mad dogs" can be vulnerable if they are genuinely reflexive and thus not savvy enough to notice when they have been outnumbered or out-manoeuvred.
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
I don't think it's particularly surprising that the threat of violence has always been and will always be one of the most effective ways for one person to persuade another person to act or speak in a certain way. But I don't think that excludes merit and morality as long as we're pragmatic and don't have the unrealistic idea that one day all of humanity will come together and cooperate for the benefit of all.This tells us something important about reality. While we humans have long flirted with concepts such as merit and morality, unfortunately the world still operates on the basis that might is right.
I think the challenge in trying to build working societies is fully recognising human nature, and what motivates us, and working with it.
It seems to me that the proper task of global diplomacy and politics probably lies in being able to lay out for people their options and making it clear that the option you want them to take is the one that is in their interests. i.e. you persuade people by making their interests align with yours. That's why a regime like the one in NK mustn't be backed into a corner with no way out. There must always be a way out. In the case of a self-regarding dictator it must be a face-saving one.
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
What may change this stalemate is the madmanship of the US president. I expect him to be indecisive and inactive; passing no major policy or policy changes. And he will be happy with that, given that he can make his speeches and get ego gratification in the ways he's accustomed to. But he might snap, not in a major way as in a nervous breakdown, but snap as in making a quick, hasty, and uninformed decision. This will mean trouble for some other country, and N Korea is on top of the list where the US might strike once it feels like acting out its aggression.
I like Mazor's theory of N Korea being a sour spot for China, but Ch draws more benefit than hindrance from the N Korean hubris in international politics. I like the dynamic Mazor depicts: the effect-counter-effect that plays out itself in international politics almost as cruelly precisely as in Newtonean physics.
Everyone stands to lose only, with a war against North Korea. The only sad or dangerous element in this standoff is the US, which may misjudge the situation, or else may see little risk for herself, and assume a devil-may-care-attitude for its allies, and upset the delicate imbalance of the situation.
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
"The people's army should always maintain a highly agitated state and be equipped with full fighting readiness so as to
smash the enemies with a single stroke if they make the slightest move and achieve
the historic cause of the fatherland's reunification."
- Kim Jong-un
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
-- Updated Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:40 am to add the following --
The fact that all this smashing, and stroking and reunification hasn't happened and probably won't happen suggests that the purpose of this particular piece of rhetoric is simply the same as the purpose of all similar rhetoric - unite the people against against a common enemy who, for all intents and purposes, is imaginary. Shaking fists is an enjoyable and useful user of energy."The people's army should always maintain a highly agitated state and be equipped with full fighting readiness so as to smash the enemies with a single stroke if they make the slightest move and achieve the historic cause of the fatherland's reunification."
-- Updated Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:43 am to add the following --
(Shaking fists and blowing up some fish.)
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
-- Updated August 10th, 2017, 2:44 pm to add the following --
*I looked up, it's "The Wonder Years" show
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
But recently I read that apparently North Korean government people have been trying to make back-door contacts with people in the US government to urgently find out how serious Trump is, and why he's so different from his predecessors. I have to say, I'm surprised by this. I had assumed that it was obvious to the whole world how the rules of this game work. It seemed surprising that the North Korean government, apparently, don't get it, given that they are such enthusiastic players.
So maybe there really is a danger here of a tragedy caused by a misunderstanding. Maybe one of Trump's trademark angry thought-free tweets about declaring war on North Korean really might goad them into detonating a nuclear weapon over Seoul or Tokyo.
Interesting times, coming right up. Maybe?
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
Maybe not, me. Maybe good times. Maybe sunlit uplands. What do we think? Have us Trump-sceptics got it wrong, on at least this issue? On this particular issue (North Korea) is Trump's simple big stick/big carrot approach going to work much better than anything has in the past? Go Trump? Make North Korea Great Again?Me wrote:Interesting times, coming right up. Maybe?
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?
Both Kim and Trump benefit from their outlandish, ridiculously larger-than-life personalities. This allows them to pass (or more accurately, impose) oppressive laws and measures. When they do, we only say, "Well, Whaddya expect?" Both figures capitalize on this. They do more than other political leaders to preserve their interests, as well as the interests of their most important collaborators. But, neither will initiate an attack on the other. Their personality only serves to make us think that it is likely one may nuke the other. They simply won't. Forget the fact that the world has too much to lose if NK and the US go berserk. Both NK and the US have too much to lose to go warring.
At best, this only serves as sensational political anticipation; it's not even news.
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