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‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

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devans99
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‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by devans99 » June 24th, 2018, 4:59 pm

- This saying is often used in connection with infinite time but:
- Things that are possible can become impossible
- Things that are impossible can’t become possible
- So the probability space shrinks with time
- So infinite time does not make everything possible
- But Infinite space makes everything possible but at such as distance to never effect us.
- This is enough to rule out local Boltzmann Brains.

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Burning ghost
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by Burning ghost » June 24th, 2018, 9:25 pm

Mods? What’s this gibberish here for?
AKA badgerjelly

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Thinking critical
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by Thinking critical » June 25th, 2018, 8:38 am

I agree ghost, it's a non sequitur.
The saying is a mathematical claim "everything that can happen, will happen" (given enough time). It is simply a statistical probability.
This cocky little cognitive contortionist will straighten you right out

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ThomasHobbes
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by ThomasHobbes » June 25th, 2018, 3:41 pm

devans99 wrote:
June 24th, 2018, 4:59 pm
- This saying is often used in connection with infinite time but:
- Things that are possible can become impossible
- Things that are impossible can’t become possible ...
Here's is where your brain leaves to stage.
Since impossible things CANnot happen. this sentence is not relevant to the thread title.

devans99
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by devans99 » June 25th, 2018, 5:21 pm

Ok perhaps my initial estimate explanation was not too clear:

In a closed system, at time t+1 the set of all possible future events is smaller or equal to the set of all possible future events at time t.

Because:

- Things that are possible can become impossible
- Things that are impossible can’t become possible
- So the probability space shrinks with time

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ThomasHobbes
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by ThomasHobbes » June 25th, 2018, 5:38 pm

devans99 wrote:
June 25th, 2018, 5:21 pm
- Things that are possible can become impossible
NO.
- Things that are impossible can’t become possible
SO WHAT?
- So the probability space shrinks with time
NO.
[/quote]

devans99
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by devans99 » June 25th, 2018, 5:52 pm

- Things that are possible can become impossible
You need to think in terms of the 2nd law of thermodynamics; systems start dynamic and full of energy and then become still with time. Things that were once possible in the system are no longer. Or a person as they age - less becomes possible for them. Or in a horse race, horses drop out so less winners become possible...

- Things that are impossible can’t become possible
It means when combined with the first predicate that the probability space must shrink with time .

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Burning ghost
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by Burning ghost » June 26th, 2018, 3:58 am

So what? Go to a physics forum. You’re conflating ideas here. It’s pointless.

We all know (I hope) that the term “impossible” in physics refers to something being so improbably that it may as well be said that it will never happen - such as, as you point out (entropy), a sand castle simply won’t appear on a beach spontaneously. You may as well say everything is impossible because it only happens once and that everything is meaningless for this reason because everything is impossible to varify with any absolutism. Herein may lie the issue with the OP. Physics practices a “loose absolutism” (forgive the hastily cobbled together term!), meaning physics operates within the limits of measurement.

To attempt to conflate semantics from one field to another is going to get you nowhere fast.

I hope you can see now that taking a generic saying and trying to splice it into physics and philosophy is little more than a poorman’s mysticism.
AKA badgerjelly

Steve3007
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by Steve3007 » June 26th, 2018, 4:45 am

"Everything that can happen will happen" or to put it another way "everything that is not forbidden is compulsory" is just a statement about determinism. Sherlock Holmes put it as "once you have eliminated the impossible then everything that is left, however improbable, must be true." I guess that fits well with the Victorian pre Quantum Mechanical triumphantly Newtonian/Maxwellian mindset.

OP:
- This saying is often used in connection with infinite time but:
- Things that are possible can become impossible
- Things that are impossible can’t become possible
- So the probability space shrinks with time
- So infinite time does not make everything possible
- But Infinite space makes everything possible but at such as distance to never effect us.
- This is enough to rule out local Boltzmann Brains.
The first two bullet points seem reasonable. But the probability space only shrinks with time if there is a finite amount of time available. The reason why bullet point 1 is true is that we can't go back in time so an event that was possible at time 't' might no longer be possible at time 't+1' (as you point out later). But if there was an infinite amount of future time available then the shrinking pool of possible future events would always be infinitely large. So I disagree with bullet point 4.

devans99
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by devans99 » June 26th, 2018, 7:12 am

“But if there was an infinite amount of future time available then the shrinking pool of possible future events would always be infinitely large”

- The set of possibilities in a closed system shrinks with time and tends to zero. For example the way systems start dynamic and reach equilibrium after a time. Sturing a coffie cup is an example; lots of stuff going on to start with followed by stillness.

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Thinking critical
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Re: ‘Everything can happen, will happen’ is wrong...

Post by Thinking critical » June 26th, 2018, 7:45 am

devans99 wrote:
June 25th, 2018, 5:52 pm
- Things that are possible can become impossible
You need to think in terms of the 2nd law of thermodynamics; systems start dynamic and full of energy and then become still with time. Things that were once possible in the system are no longer. Or a person as they age - less becomes possible for them. Or in a horse race, horses drop out so less winners become possible...
The increase of entropy within a system only reduces probability it does not make something impossible. Attempting to apply an entropic principal to explain the lack of ability due to age in humans and horses is nonsense, this not a valid comparison to prove your premise.

As for your coclusion, as stated earlier this is a non sequitur.
This cocky little cognitive contortionist will straighten you right out

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