The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

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Sy Borg
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The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Sy Borg »

I see the growing wealth gap as a stage of evolution. That is, in time H. sapiens will be out-competed by H. machina, just as H. sapiens out-competed their peer hominids.

Despite human illusions of empowerment, the biosphere continues to evolve without the slightest care as to whether this is what its components (ie. individual humans and other animals) want. Humans believe to be in control, but what I have seen in my life has been societies furiously fudging to hide the fact that they are not in control and do not quite know what they are doing.

So King Donald I, like the rest of humanity, is simply an agent of change. This change will see relatively homogeneous human societies break up into super-powerful and resources central hubs that will be mostly surrounded by relative poverty and desert lands, ie. a continuation of current trends. This is analogous to how our solar system transformed over time from a relatively homogeneous proto-planetary disc to planets surrounded by relatively empty space. It's a good thing - if you are one of the privileged, anyway.

Biology requires functioning ecosystems to survive. That is still true for humans masses, but increasingly not for billionaires, who can easily be kept healthy with advanced food, water and other technologies, and have their supplied defended by automated weapons. That's why they seem so unworried by climate change.

Currently, the wealthiest eight people own more than the poorest 3.9 billion. As corporate behemoths gather an ever greater share of resources, they will have ever less need for the inconvenient and ignorant masses, whose share of wealth will become insignificant. Already corporations (ever more being run by algorithms) are separating from the people. Many large companies have largely stopped paying tax. Many have been buying up their own stock. In time, ever more will focus on B2B transactions - interacting with other super wealthy players.

Humans are already being out-competed by companies ever more run by algorithm, whose operations are ever more automated. We seem to have misread what AI is and the kind of threat it poses to most of us. Chances are that, whatever we do, the above dynamic will play out. Policies today decide on relatively short-term issues and how hard these growing trends hit us, but they will not determine what ultimately happens to humanity, only how it plays out and how much it the change hurts.

One can only hope that H. machina manages to solve at least some of the problems of humans, just as we overcame many of the problems that come from living in the wild.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

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Greta wrote: October 24th, 2020, 6:35 pm I see the growing wealth gap as a stage of evolution.
Thus far the vast majority of evolutionary pathways have led to extinction.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by LuckyR »

But in the broader time sequence, is there a wealth gap increase? I'd much rather be in the bottom quarter in the US currently than be in the second quarter in pre-revolutionary Europe.

In addition, numbers can be misleading. How is the life of a billionaire "better" than someone with "only" 10% of their wealth? Or 1%?
"As usual... it depends."
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Sy Borg »

LuckyR wrote: October 25th, 2020, 4:11 am But in the broader time sequence, is there a wealth gap increase? I'd much rather be in the bottom quarter in the US currently than be in the second quarter in pre-revolutionary Europe.

In addition, numbers can be misleading. How is the life of a billionaire "better" than someone with "only" 10% of their wealth? Or 1%?
The lives of the poor are better now but, once climate change bites more, their standard of living will plummet, at best.

When more ecosystems start breaking down, the advantage of billions will become more apparent. However, those whose wealth is counted in hundreds of millions will tend to do significant business with billionaires' organisations. The greater the affiliation, the greater the chance of being included in their protective umbrella when the faeces hits the fan.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Arjen »

This is one possible future:
https://youtu.be/sU8RunvBRZ8
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Sy Borg »

Arjen wrote: October 25th, 2020, 12:41 pm This is one possible future:
https://youtu.be/sU8RunvBRZ8
I don't see it as humans being the architect of their own demise, any more than the evolution of humans was the architect of apes' demise. The fact is that humans are still apes - so apes are actually doing tremendously well. We humans will remain apes until significant body systems are replaced with digital counterparts, and that is a long way off.

Even when the last human biological organ is gone or has been replaced, and humans are technically extinct, humanity's legacy will remain in every component of their replacements, just as humans retain so much of the various species from which we've evolved - from the first microbes to the last ape common ancestor of great apes.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Pattern-chaser »

Pattern-chaser

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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by gad-fly »

Greta wrote: October 24th, 2020, 6:35 pm I see the growing wealth gap as a stage of evolution. That is, in time H. sapiens will be out-competed by H. machina, just as H. sapiens out-competed their peer hominids.

Despite human illusions of empowerment, the biosphere continues to evolve without the slightest care as to whether this is what its components (ie. individual humans and other animals) want. Humans believe to be in control, but what I have seen in my life has been societies furiously fudging to hide the fact that they are not in control and do not quite know what they are doing.

So King Donald I, like the rest of humanity, is simply an agent of change. This change will see relatively homogeneous human societies break up into super-powerful and resources central hubs that will be mostly surrounded by relative poverty and desert lands, ie. a continuation of current trends. This is analogous to how our solar system transformed over time from a relatively homogeneous proto-planetary disc to planets surrounded by relatively empty space. It's a good thing - if you are one of the privileged, anyway.

Biology requires functioning ecosystems to survive. That is still true for humans masses, but increasingly not for billionaires, who can easily be kept healthy with advanced food, water and other technologies, and have their supplied defended by automated weapons. That's why they seem so unworried by climate change.

Currently, the wealthiest eight people own more than the poorest 3.9 billion. As corporate behemoths gather an ever greater share of resources, they will have ever less need for the inconvenient and ignorant masses, whose share of wealth will become insignificant. Already corporations (ever more being run by algorithms) are separating from the people. Many large companies have largely stopped paying tax. Many have been buying up their own stock. In time, ever more will focus on B2B transactions - interacting with other super wealthy players.

Humans are already being out-competed by companies ever more run by algorithm, whose operations are ever more automated. We seem to have misread what AI is and the kind of threat it poses to most of us. Chances are that, whatever we do, the above dynamic will play out. Policies today decide on relatively short-term issues and how hard these growing trends hit us, but they will not determine what ultimately happens to humanity, only how it plays out and how much it the change hurts.

One can only hope that H. machina manages to solve at least some of the problems of humans, just as we overcame many of the problems that come from living in the wild.
The tile asks a very general question: What is the future of the big picture (of what)? The thread starts with the growing wealth gap. Then it goes on with the evolution of homo sapiens. The subject seems too unwieldy to focus on. It risks inviting all around to a picnic.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Sy Borg »

gad-fly wrote: October 26th, 2020, 4:41 pm
Greta wrote: October 24th, 2020, 6:35 pm I see the growing wealth gap as a stage of evolution. That is, in time H. sapiens will be out-competed by H. machina, just as H. sapiens out-competed their peer hominids.

Despite human illusions of empowerment, the biosphere continues to evolve without the slightest care as to whether this is what its components (ie. individual humans and other animals) want. Humans believe to be in control, but what I have seen in my life has been societies furiously fudging to hide the fact that they are not in control and do not quite know what they are doing.

So King Donald I, like the rest of humanity, is simply an agent of change. This change will see relatively homogeneous human societies break up into super-powerful and resources central hubs that will be mostly surrounded by relative poverty and desert lands, ie. a continuation of current trends. This is analogous to how our solar system transformed over time from a relatively homogeneous proto-planetary disc to planets surrounded by relatively empty space. It's a good thing - if you are one of the privileged, anyway.

Biology requires functioning ecosystems to survive. That is still true for humans masses, but increasingly not for billionaires, who can easily be kept healthy with advanced food, water and other technologies, and have their supplied defended by automated weapons. That's why they seem so unworried by climate change.

Currently, the wealthiest eight people own more than the poorest 3.9 billion. As corporate behemoths gather an ever greater share of resources, they will have ever less need for the inconvenient and ignorant masses, whose share of wealth will become insignificant. Already corporations (ever more being run by algorithms) are separating from the people. Many large companies have largely stopped paying tax. Many have been buying up their own stock. In time, ever more will focus on B2B transactions - interacting with other super wealthy players.

Humans are already being out-competed by companies ever more run by algorithm, whose operations are ever more automated. We seem to have misread what AI is and the kind of threat it poses to most of us. Chances are that, whatever we do, the above dynamic will play out. Policies today decide on relatively short-term issues and how hard these growing trends hit us, but they will not determine what ultimately happens to humanity, only how it plays out and how much it the change hurts.

One can only hope that H. machina manages to solve at least some of the problems of humans, just as we overcame many of the problems that come from living in the wild.
The tile asks a very general question: What is the future of the big picture (of what)? The thread starts with the growing wealth gap. Then it goes on with the evolution of homo sapiens. The subject seems too unwieldy to focus on. It risks inviting all around to a picnic.
What big picture? The big picture of the process that started with the Big Bang and, at least in our galactic neighbourhood, has progressed to high tech societies. Biological evolution is only a small aspect of the changes, not the "end product" but a byway to more advanced entities.

So the growing, extreme and unprecedented level of global wealth gap points us to the future evolution of H. sapiens. The future are the super wealthy - corporations and the ultra-rich, not the masses. While such extreme inequality is painful for many individuals, it's ultimately positive in terms of the world's future. In the larger scheme of things - a gargantuan universe with over a trillion years more development ahead of it - humans' and animals' current problems are akin to a toddler's upsets.

Humanity has come a long way but, then again, so have toddlers - all the way from egg, zygote, blastula, gastula, various other embryonic stages, then foetal stages, and then infancy to a few years. The change from egg to toddler is as profound as the evolution of microbes to Google. It appears that life is not as we see it. We think of ourselves as end products, just in need of refinement. In truth, we are just one more step to complexity.

The ultimate general enlightenment that we ultimately crave - a world without cruelty and ill-will - is not possible for individual hominids. Humanity is collectively acting in a manner skin to blue-green algae two billion years ago (triggered a major extinction event that changed the world forever). Yet, our personal trajectories more echo that of mitochondria, which had apparently evolved from ancient bacteria that became stuck within larger cells (either as a parasite or as prey), a union that ended up exponentially empowering each.

Like mitochondria, individual humans are contained in a "cell" (home), either alone or with some others. The "cells" are rapidly evolving, with rapidly increasing, and ever more essential, connections being formed between homes and the rest of society - like an evolving cellular network.

Another hint: do you notice that individualism is disappearing as each person accesses roughly the same information online? Once people enjoyed and were interested in "eccentrics", whom are now diagnosed and have their individuality medicated out of them. There are increasing "tribal" affiliations, where all members parrot exactly the same motherhood statements about the world, often word for word. Then they complain about political correctness, when the PC within their own ranks is more strict than anything in society. This also harks to the rise in authoritarianism and cults of personality, eg. Xi, Putin, Trump - all all comes down to an increasing demand for homogeneity.

Personally, I am from another age, one that treasures individuality, so the changes do not suit me at all. However, I can appreciate that things must change. Look at mess of humanity today - hugely unsustainable in our numbers and consumption, yet unwilling to change course. The growing hatreds and cruelties. The removal of natural spaces to be replaced by concrete, tar and steel.

These are, in a sense, all terrible things. They are also catalytic, seemingly leading to a future that transcends humanity's current tendencies towards pettiness and short-term thinking.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Jklint »

Greta wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:50 pm
Personally, I am from another age, one that treasures individuality, so the changes do not suit me at all. However, I can appreciate that things must change. Look at mess of humanity today - hugely unsustainable in our numbers and consumption, yet unwilling to change course. The growing hatreds and cruelties. The removal of natural spaces to be replaced by concrete, tar and steel.

These are, in a sense, all terrible things. They are also catalytic, seemingly leading to a future that transcends humanity's current tendencies towards pettiness and short-term thinking.
...or to one that ends it.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by LuckyR »

Greta wrote: October 25th, 2020, 8:13 am
LuckyR wrote: October 25th, 2020, 4:11 am But in the broader time sequence, is there a wealth gap increase? I'd much rather be in the bottom quarter in the US currently than be in the second quarter in pre-revolutionary Europe.

In addition, numbers can be misleading. How is the life of a billionaire "better" than someone with "only" 10% of their wealth? Or 1%?
The lives of the poor are better now but, once climate change bites more, their standard of living will plummet, at best.

When more ecosystems start breaking down, the advantage of billions will become more apparent. However, those whose wealth is counted in hundreds of millions will tend to do significant business with billionaires' organisations. The greater the affiliation, the greater the chance of being included in their protective umbrella when the faeces hits the fan.
That is entirely possible, though is a commentary on climate change not wealth inequality. That is, your guess on the implications of climate change aren't improved with a thriving middle class.
"As usual... it depends."
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Sy Borg »

LuckyR wrote: October 27th, 2020, 4:22 am
Greta wrote: October 25th, 2020, 8:13 am
The lives of the poor are better now but, once climate change bites more, their standard of living will plummet, at best.

When more ecosystems start breaking down, the advantage of billions will become more apparent. However, those whose wealth is counted in hundreds of millions will tend to do significant business with billionaires' organisations. The greater the affiliation, the greater the chance of being included in their protective umbrella when the faeces hits the fan.
That is entirely possible, though is a commentary on climate change not wealth inequality. That is, your guess on the implications of climate change aren't improved with a thriving middle class.
Yes, I don't much fancy the future of the middle class, other than upwardly mobile upper middle class. Funny thing, isn't it? We thought we'd outgrown class divisions, and still often pretend that we live in classless societies, but royalty and the classes have once again emerged. In the longer term, I can only see these divisions widening.

Consider how humans separated from other apes, how their "wealth gap" widened. At first they would have only been doing a bit better than other apes; we would have been peers, competitors. Now we talk about their conservation status. Homo machina may one day have conservation concerns about natural humans.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Pattern-chaser »

Let me begin by saying that my comments here are minor, and don't address the main thread of your argument. 😉


Greta wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:50 pm There are increasing "tribal" affiliations, where all members parrot exactly the same motherhood statements about the world, often word for word.
Are these affiliations "tribal"? I recognise "tribal" as more or less synonymous with "communal", an extension of "family" into larger social groupings. Rather, I think these affiliations are a symptom of our modern preference to ignore and dismiss 'experts', and to create truth by constant repetition, instead of basing our belief(s) on facts. It seems to me that this is mostly down to American Libertarianism, the cult of the (selfish and greedy) individual, who has all kinds of 'rights' (and no duties or responsibilities), and who revile the "government" as an enemy of the people (i.e. not an enemy of the people at all, but an enemy of the 'individual').


Greta wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:50 pm Personally, I am from another age, one that treasures individuality...
I think I am from an earlier age still, a transitional age that treasures the balance between the individual and the community. Earlier again, we 'knew our place', and respected our 'betters', but that's my grand-parents' time.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by Sy Borg »

Pattern-chaser wrote: October 27th, 2020, 10:05 amAre these affiliations "tribal"? I recognise "tribal" as more or less synonymous with "communal", an extension of "family" into larger social groupings. Rather, I think these affiliations are a symptom of our modern preference to ignore and dismiss 'experts', and to create truth by constant repetition, instead of basing our belief(s) on facts. It seems to me that this is mostly down to American Libertarianism, the cult of the (selfish and greedy) individual, who has all kinds of 'rights' (and no duties or responsibilities), and who revile the "government" as an enemy of the people (i.e. not an enemy of the people at all, but an enemy of the 'individual').
Hence the inverted commas. The behaviour is tribal - as opposed to reasoning and unbiased.
Pattern-chaser wrote: October 27th, 2020, 10:05 am
I think I am from an earlier age still, a transitional age that treasures the balance between the individual and the community. Earlier again, we 'knew our place', and respected our 'betters', but that's my grand-parents' time.
You raise an important point - the friction (and frission) between the individual and the group.

In the future, humans will clearly be very much more controlled than they are today. With facial recognition technology, compulsory digital currency issued by governments, the UBI (since most jobs will be automated), GPS and implantable technology, the worlds of Orwell and Huxley loom large.

The more that humans are controlled, the more that large corporations, cities and nations will resemble super-organisms - a state of integration that lies between that of colonies and organisms. It appears that multicellularity is once again emerging, but on a larger scale.

If, in the future, societies become as integrated as organisms, there I expect that most, if not all, of the human individuals that would effectively be acting as a microbiome would have no idea that this larger being existed. Just as microbiomes have no sense of the organism that they support.
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Re: The Big Picture: What Does the Future hold?

Post by LuckyR »

Greta wrote: October 27th, 2020, 5:25 am
LuckyR wrote: October 27th, 2020, 4:22 am

That is entirely possible, though is a commentary on climate change not wealth inequality. That is, your guess on the implications of climate change aren't improved with a thriving middle class.
Yes, I don't much fancy the future of the middle class, other than upwardly mobile upper middle class. Funny thing, isn't it? We thought we'd outgrown class divisions, and still often pretend that we live in classless societies, but royalty and the classes have once again emerged. In the longer term, I can only see these divisions widening.

Consider how humans separated from other apes, how their "wealth gap" widened. At first they would have only been doing a bit better than other apes; we would have been peers, competitors. Now we talk about their conservation status. Homo machina may one day have conservation concerns about natural humans.
Yeah, I know. I saw the Terminator.
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