Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

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RJG
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by RJG »

Steve3007 wrote:RJG, you do know what the word density means, right? You know it means amount of stuff per unit volume or per unit area? You know it doesn't mean the same as the word proportion? So if we talk about the density of a population we're talking about the number of people per unit area. If we talk about the density of the vulnerable people in that population we're talking about the number of vulnerable people per unit area. I've made this clear from the start, but I know from experience not to expect you to read what I say.
So what is your point? Are you trying to somehow imply that herd immunity is NOT based on the percentage of immune people within a given environment???

An increase in the "percentage" of immune people within a given environment means an increase in the "density" of immune people to all the people, within the given environment.
Steve3007
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

My point is to check that you know what the word density means.
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

Steve3007 wrote:RJG, you do know what the word density means, right? You know it means amount of stuff per unit volume or per unit area? You know it doesn't mean the same as the word proportion?
I guess I have the answer to my question. It's no.
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RJG
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by RJG »

Steve3007 wrote:RJG, you do know what the word density means, right? You know it means amount of stuff per unit volume or per unit area? You know it doesn't mean the same as the word proportion?
RJG wrote:An increase in the "percentage" of immune people within a given environment means an increase in the "density" of immune people to all the people within the given environment.
Steve3007 wrote:I guess I have the answer to my question. It's no.
I guess you didn't understand my answer. It's yes.

Steve, what is the purpose of this "red-herring" question? Does this somehow prove that herd immunity is NOT based on the percentage of immune people within a given environment???
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

"density" of immune people to all the people
was the phrase that provided the clue (that and the quotes). It looks like you confuse density with proportion.
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RJG
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

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RJG wrote:An increase in the "percentage" of immune people within a given environment means an increase in the "density" of immune people to all the people within the given environment.
Steve3007 wrote:
RJG wrote:..."density" of immune people to all the people
was the phrase that provided the clue (that and the quotes). It looks like you confuse density with proportion.
Ha, you are being overtly dishonest. You conveniently chopped away some of my words to give a different meaning. You left out the key words "within the given environment".

Again, what game are you playing? How does this "red-herring" have anything to do with implying that herd immunity is NOT based on the percentage of immune people within a given environment?

It appears that you are looking for a "distraction" (a smelly red-herring) away from the proven point that "distance" has absolutely nothing to do with herd immunity.
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

So, as I said, density means the amount of stuff per unit volume or per unit area. So if we're talking about people: number of people per unit area. Vulnerable people: number of vulnerable people per unit area. Marbles in a box: number of marbles per unit volume. Red marbles in a box: number of red marbles per unit volume. etc.
RJG wrote:An increase in the "percentage" of immune people within a given environment means an increase in the "density" of immune people to all the people, within the given environment.
The density of immune people is the number of immune people per unit area. That's it. No " to all people" required. That's what you'd say if you were talking about a ratio or a proportion. "The proportion of immune people to..." etc.

Similarly:
The density (no quotes needed) of vulnerable people is the number of vulnerable people per unit area.
The density (no quotes needed) of people is the number of people per unit area.

We're agreed what density means now, yes? Say if not.
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

Great. We're clear about what the word density means. So, given that meaning, let's start by going back to here:

viewtopic.php?p=378291#p378291
RJG wrote:The point is that "distance" between vulnerable people has absolutely no bearing on the "density" of immune people to the total population.

Why is this so difficult to comprehend?
As I said, because it's self-evidently not true. Here is why:

The density of immune people determines the density of vulnerable people; more immune means fewer vulnerable.
The density of anything is directly related to the average distance between those things. The lower the density, the greater that distance.
Therefore the density of immune people does relate to the the average distance between vulnerable people.
The higher the density of immune people, the greater the average distance between vulnerable people.
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RJG
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by RJG »

RJG wrote:The point is that "distance" between vulnerable people has absolutely no bearing on the "density" of immune people to the total population [within a given environment].
Steve3007 wrote:The density of immune people determines the density of vulnerable people; more immune means fewer vulnerable.
The density of anything is directly related to the average distance between those things. The lower the density, the greater that distance.
Therefore the density of immune people does relate to the the average distance between vulnerable people.
The higher the density of immune people, the greater the average distance between vulnerable people.
But herd immunity is not determined by the "density of immune people" (itself) within an environment, nor is it determined by the "distance" between vulnerable people. Herd immunity is determined by the percentage of immune people to total people within the herd. It is determined by dividing the number of immune people by the total number of people within the herd (the given environment). It is based on the saturation level (or "density") of immune people to the total people within a given environment. It is this saturation "percentage" that matters, not the "number" of immune people (by itself), within a given environment.

Again, refer to the marbles illustration to help better understand the irrelevance of "distance" between vulnerable people in achieving the 60% threshold value of herd immunity.

Marbles = people
Blue marbles = immune people
Red marbles= vulnerable people
Box = a fixed (given) environment

Imagine a box of 10 marbles (6 blue and 4 red):
1. Move the 4 red marbles next to each other (0 distance between each). What is the percentage of blue marbles to all marbles? Answer = 60%
2. Move each of the 4 red marbles to the corners of the box (thereby increasing the distance between them). Now what is the percentage of blue marbles to all marbles? Answer = 60%

Therefore, "distance" between vulnerable people has no absolutely no effect on the protective effect of herd immunity.
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:Move the 4 red marbles next to each other.
The herd immunity model is based on a well mixed population. Look it up. So no moving marbles of the same colour next to each other or apart.
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by LuckyR »

All those who cashed in their 401k (retirement funds) early to spend before homo sapiens goes extinct, raise your hands.
"As usual... it depends."
Steve3007
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:But herd immunity is not determined by the "density of immune people" (itself) within an environment, nor is it determined by the "distance" between vulnerable people. Herd immunity is determined by the percentage of immune people to total people within the herd.
And the reason why the percentage of immune people to total people within the herd makes a difference to the R number is that it affects the average distance, and the frequency of contacts, between vulnerable/infectious people. This has been clearly explained over and over again. But rather than just sticking to your assertion that there is an additional benefit of the immune somehow sucking up the virus, you've gone down this irrational route of claiming that there is no relationship between the density of a bunch of objects and the average distance between them. By refusing to back down after making an honest mistake you paint yourself into the corner of having to make self-evidently absurd claims.

Why not just accept that that line of argument was a blind alley, admit that it was a mistake, and just stick to your claim that the immune suck up the virus as well as increasing the average distance between the vulnerable? As you know, I disagree with that for reasons previously stated, but at least it's not quite as irrational as the position you've forced yourself into here.
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RJG
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by RJG »

Steve3007 wrote:And the reason why the percentage of immune people to total people within the herd makes a difference to the R number is that it affects the average distance, and the frequency of contacts, between vulnerable/infectious people.
Not so, ...you are STILL confusing "social distancing" with "herd immunity".

Social distancing works by increasing the distance between people.
Herd immunity works because immune people STOP the transmission of the virus.

Maybe one of these graphics might help you better understand the difference between the two types of protection:

Covid Protections - small.jpg
Covid Protections - small.jpg (16.26 KiB) Viewed 2017 times
Herd Immunity vs Social Distancing - small.jpg
Herd Immunity vs Social Distancing - small.jpg (31.94 KiB) Viewed 2017 times
Herd Immunity Protection - small.jpg
Herd Immunity Protection - small.jpg (18.73 KiB) Viewed 2017 times
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RJG
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Re: Part 2 - Will Continued Social Distancing Ultimately Destroy All Human Life on this Planet?

Post by RJG »

*****************

The purpose of the three graphics above is to help clarify how herd immunity works, as there seems to be a general misunderstanding and confusion between the protective effects of herd immunity with that of social distancing. The main point I wanted to clarify is:

Herd immunity works because immune people STOP the transmission of the virus. Immune people break vectors (stop the transmission) of the virus to a neighboring vulnerable person (i.e immune person protects vulnerable person), whereas social distancing works by increasing vector distances (between infected person to vulnerable person) to achieve protection. Two different sets of people, two different types of protection, and two different mechanisms (breaking vectors versus increasing vector lengths).

Once the protective effects of herd immunity is clearly understood, then I can move forward in the discussion to ultimately prove "healthy people remove the virus from the environment", and then move on to the conclusion to show how continued masking and social distancing of our healthy population will ultimately destroy all human life.
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