The Dangerous Irrationality of Masking our Vaccinated People

[LuckyR]

I am not commenting on the uses nor the importance of various subjects, just that science literacy is less common than competence in other disciplines.

It seems to me that it's generally regarded as more socially acceptable to be both scientifically and mathematically illiterate than it is to be ignorant in other subject. I think there are various reasons for this, but one (at least where I live) is that the people whose voices are heard (journalists and politicians) are often proudly scientifically and mathematically lliterate.

There's a UK TV quiz show called University Challenge hosted by a journalist called Jeremy Paxman. He's never been shy to show his opinions and over the years of watching I've noted that there tends to be a difference in the way that he reacts when contestants get a question about, say, history wrong versus getting a question about mathematics or physics right. In the former case he mocks them for their ignorance and in the second case he mocks them for their geekiness.

The causes are quite numerous, you have mentioned several. Others include the reality that understanding concepts is inherently more difficult than regurgitating factoids, that formal Education has traditionally been politically led by the Humanities and that successful scientists can find well compensated employment in industry whereas the pinnacle of employment outside of the sciences is often in higher education itself. Lastly and likely most importantly, grade school educators are less likely to be personally science literate and thus shy away from teaching subject matter in which they themselves are not conversant.

I would hesitate from overlarge conclusions based on the prejudices of one man.

He is not the basis of my posting. Alas,
general trends predict nothing for individual situations and only have value when groups are analyzed.

[Newme]

Therefore the US states with the least amount of mask wearing and locking down should have the lowest case rate, right?

Yes, in many cases this is TRUE. For example, if you look at the states of Florida (less masking and lockdowns) and California (more masking and lockdowns), you'll see that Florida actually has lower cases per capita than California.

Also, if we compare countries such as Sweden (no masking/lockdowns) to USA or UK (lots of masking/shutdowns), then the empirical evidence makes it very clear that masking/lockdowns don't correlate to more protection, and in fact, if anything the empirical evidence/data seems to suggest just the opposite!

UK deaths per capita = 1817 per million
USA deaths per capita = 1600 per million
Sweden death per capita = 1278 per million

And also these numbers don't reflect all the collateral deaths and destruction of personal lives related to the lockdowns.

Thank you for taking up the baton. Was getting a bit tired.

I also read that cloth masks - or masks repeatedly worn or not worn correctly - are worse than no mask.

[Steve3007]

An update on this friendly wager:

https://onlinephilosophyclub.com/forums ... 54#p379354

Due to a combination of social distancing/lockdown, mask-wearing and the vaccine rollout, the UK death rate is now back down to pretty much where it was last summer:

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+s ... e&ie=UTF-8

At that point the Spring 2020 lockdown had brought down the death rate but there was no vaccine yet and the government started relaxing restrictions and implemented schemes like "eat out to help out" to help the hospitality industry by encouraging people to go out to restaurants. As we know, this turned out to be premature, and the result was another surge in Autumn which was reduced by the November lockdown, only to increase again in January 2021 when people mixed at Christmas.

So now, as per the plan published in February, social distancing measures are starting to be eased gradually, but of course mask wearing in public places remains. I had my first jab (the Oxford/AstraZeneca one) a few weeks ago and am due for the second one in early June. Most adults in my extended family have also had at least their first injection, either because they're over 50 or because they are high priority for other reasons (jobs and special needs). I think about half the total population has now had at least one dose of one of the vaccines. Mask wearing will likely continue in public places as restrictions are lifted further and the possibility of domestic "vaccine passports" is being discussed, whereby, essentially, you'll need to show you've had the jab before being able to go to the pub, and other public places where crowds gather close together.

So, given that the reduction in deaths and the consequent re-opening of society is currently going as planned, the thing to watch now is how big any consequent resurgence of infections and deaths this summer and Autumn is, and what then happens in early 2022.

[Sculptor1]

An update on this friendly wager:

https://onlinephilosophyclub.com/forums ... 54#p379354

Due to a combination of social distancing/lockdown, mask-wearing and the vaccine rollout, the UK death rate is now back down to pretty much where it was last summer:

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+s ... e&ie=UTF-8

At that point the Spring 2020 lockdown had brought down the death rate but there was no vaccine yet and the government started relaxing restrictions and implemented schemes like "eat out to help out" to help the hospitality industry by encouraging people to go out to restaurants. As we know, this turned out to be premature, and the result was another surge in Autumn which was reduced by the November lockdown, only to increase again in January 2021 when people mixed at Christmas.

So now, as per the plan published in February, social distancing measures are starting to be eased gradually, but of course mask wearing in public places remains. I had my first jab (the Oxford/AstraZeneca one) a few weeks ago and am due for the second one in early June. Most adults in my extended family have also had at least their first injection, either because they're over 50 or because they are high priority for other reasons (jobs and special needs). I think about half the total population has now had at least one dose of one of the vaccines. Mask wearing will likely continue in public places as restrictions are lifted further and the possibility of domestic "vaccine passports" is being discussed, whereby, essentially, you'll need to show you've had the jab before being able to go to the pub, and other public places where crowds gather close together.

So, given that the reduction in deaths and the consequent re-opening of society is currently going as planned, the thing to watch now is how big any consequent resurgence of infections and deaths this summer and Autumn is, and what then happens in early 2022.

The media, especially the BBC are obsessed to attribute the drop in cases, and deaths holly to the advent of vaccinations. Clearly the lockdown is the main mover in the reduction of infections, as the vaccinated number is only now exceeding half partial vaccinations.

I think the big test will be when the Summer ends, and the vaccinations are more or less complete. Last year it was the end of September when cases started to rise again, with deaths rising four weeks later. (Ignored by the government and allowed to thrive, until the new year).

By the end of Summer this year we shall have lockdown fatigue, complacency and vaccine optimism. However,, the large number of variants emerging the world over may still be problematic. And with countries like India where vaccinations are close to zero, we can expect more and possibly vaccine resistent strains.

[RJG]

Due to a combination of social distancing/lockdown, mask-wearing and the vaccine rollout, the UK death rate is now back down to pretty much where it was last summer.

But this should not be equated to as "success" by any means. Success is measured by low death rates 'without' "social distancing/lockdowns and mask-wearing". -- For if we had mandated everyone to stay in the shade then we would have also reduced the total number of sunburns, but this does not mean success in stopping future sunburns, nor would it mean that it is now safe to go back out to play in the sun again.

As you know, I contend that "social distancing/lockdowns and mask-wearing" of our 'vulnerable' people is good, but doing so with our healthy immune people will have catastrophic effects; ultimately killing many more vulnerable people, by creating a never ending growth and perpetuation of this virus (including vaccine resistant mutations, and then mutations from mutations, etc). It is foolhardy to believe that we can create vaccines at a fast enough pace to fight the ever increasing number of mutations that we are intentionally creating via social distancing and masking of our healthy immune people. It is a fight we cannot win.

It's as dangerously irrational as keeping one's own white blood cells away from the site of an infection. Preventing mother nature's method of protecting mankind (for the past eons) will ultimately be a death sentence to all mankind.

Long story short - the more we mask and socially distance our healthy immune population, the worse this virus (and its mutations) become. UK will have a particularly tough time as it's strict social distancing and masking mandates will only create many more deaths when (if?) they can ever finally remove their masking/social distancing. The empirical evidence is very clear, but it seems this evidence is being dismissed in favor of fear mongering and politics.

Steve and my wager is based on what happens when the UK finally unmasks. I say things will be much worse, and Steve says things will be much better. I hope I am wrong, but logic and science tell us otherwise.

However, the large number of variants emerging the world over may still be problematic.

Yes, and this will continue to a point-of-no-return (if we haven't reach that point already) where we cross the threshold point in the battle of survival-of-the-fittest. Vaccines by themselves won't and can't save us if we continue to let the virus grow and mutate. If we don't immediately unmask our vaccinated (and healthy immune people) and allow them to fully socialize ASAP, we can kiss all our human butts good-bye.

[Steve3007]

But this should not be equated to as "success" by any means. Success is measured by low death rates 'without' "social distancing/lockdowns and mask-wearing".

Hence the bet is not just about what is happening right now but about what might happen next year. Your prediction is, and has been, that if we don't unmask the vaccinated right now then the results will be catastrophic. So it's important to note that here in the UK we have not yet unmasked and probably won't for some time. I, for example, have had the vaccine and I still wear a mask in public places, as do almost all others. So your prediction is catastrophe as a result of this. We find out who's right next year.

[Steve3007]

The media, especially the BBC are obsessed to attribute the drop in cases, and deaths holly to the advent of vaccinations. Clearly the lockdown is the main mover in the reduction of infections, as the vaccinated number is only now exceeding half partial vaccinations.

It's difficult to tell the extent to which the lockdown since the beginning of this years is the cause of the latest big drop in infections/deaths and to what extent the vaccine is the cause. But since the drop in deaths matches the drop that happened in April-June last year and, as you say, the vaccine rollout has only just reached 50% partial vaccinations, it does seem reasonable to assume that the lockdown is the biggest driver.

I think the big test will be when the Summer ends, and the vaccinations are more or less complete. Last year it was the end of September when cases started to rise again, with deaths rising four weeks later. (Ignored by the government and allowed to thrive, until the new year).

Yes. Modelling predicts another surge at the end of this Summer. The extent to which it it less than the surge in Autumn last year will indicate how successful the vaccine rollout has been.

By the end of Summer this year we shall have lockdown fatigue, complacency and vaccine optimism. However, the large number of variants emerging the world over may still be problematic. And with countries like India where vaccinations are close to zero, we can expect more and possibly vaccine resistent strains.

Yes, and Brazil, due to its lack of nationwide lockdowns and generally chaotic approach to the whole thing, seems to be a major source of new variants. The Brazil Bolsonaro government's attitude to the whole thing seems to be like an even worse version of the US Trump government's approach.

[RJG]

Hence the bet is not just about what is happening right now but about what might happen next year. Your prediction is, and has been, that if we don't unmask the vaccinated right now then the results will be catastrophic. So it's important to note that here in the UK we have not yet unmasked and probably won't for some time.

Yes, correct. The bet is based on "success" (or the lack of it). If UK can't safely unmask by early next year, then I win the bet. -- And an additional prediction of mine is - that if UK does not unmask their vaccinated (and all healthy immune) people very soon, then they will never be able to unmask.

I, for example, have had the vaccine and I still wear a mask in public places, as do almost all others. So your prediction is catastrophe as a result of this.

Yes, vaccinated people wearing masks (or continuing social distancing) will only contribute to their (and the worldwide) demise.

We find out who's right next year.

Correct. ...and I do truly hope you are right.

[Steve3007]

If UK can't safely unmask by early next year, then I win the bet.

I always suspected I'd have to watch out for this kind of thing - gradual shifting of the terms as events unfold. That is not what it says in our bet. Here it is again:

https://onlinephilosophyclub.com/forums ... 54#p379354

You agreed to that in the next post.

[Sculptor1]

The media, especially the BBC are obsessed to attribute the drop in cases, and deaths holly to the advent of vaccinations. Clearly the lockdown is the main mover in the reduction of infections, as the vaccinated number is only now exceeding half partial vaccinations.

It's difficult to tell the extent to which the lockdown since the beginning of this years is the cause of the latest big drop in infections/deaths and to what extent the vaccine is the cause. But since the drop in deaths matches the drop that happened in April-June last year and, as you say, the vaccine rollout has only just reached 50% partial vaccinations, it does seem reasonable to assume that the lockdown is the biggest driver.

I think the big test will be when the Summer ends, and the vaccinations are more or less complete. Last year it was the end of September when cases started to rise again, with deaths rising four weeks later. (Ignored by the government and allowed to thrive, until the new year).

Yes. Modelling predicts another surge at the end of this Summer. The extent to which it it less than the surge in Autumn last year will indicate how successful the vaccine rollout has been.

By the end of Summer this year we shall have lockdown fatigue, complacency and vaccine optimism. However, the large number of variants emerging the world over may still be problematic. And with countries like India where vaccinations are close to zero, we can expect more and possibly vaccine resistent strains.

Yes, and Brazil, due to its lack of nationwide lockdowns and generally chaotic approach to the whole thing, seems to be a major source of new variants. The Brazil Bolsonaro government's attitude to the whole thing seems to be like an even worse version of the US Trump government's approach.

Yes for Bolsanaro's "policy" read our very own RDG here on the Forum.

[Sculptor1]

ERROR: For RDG read RJD

[Steve3007]

For RDG read RJD

and for RJD read RJG!

Yes, the Bolsonaro disaster in Brazil is what would now be happening in other countries if they took RJG's "unmask those I deem to be healthy and encourage them to mix!" attitude.

[RJG]

Success is measured by low death rates 'without' "social distancing/lockdowns and mask-wearing".

If UK can't safely unmask by early next year, then I win the bet.

I always suspected I'd have to watch out for this kind of thing - gradual shifting of the terms as events unfold. That is not what it says in our bet.

Yes, of course. My words above is just a brief (non complete) abstract of the bet. It was not intended to replace the specific terms that we agreed to.

But also our terms include no masking/social distancing to achieve this "success".

The verbiage at the beginning of our agreement says "the UK government plans a phased reduction of social distancing as set out in this guidance...". This implies reduced masking/social distancing.

Hopefully you are not going to claim success (and winning of the bet) if UK is still masking/social distancing.

Yes, the Bolsonaro disaster in Brazil is what would now be happening in other countries if they took RJG's "unmask those I deem to be healthy and encourage them to mix!" attitude.

You are twisting my words. I said "vaccinated" and other healthy immune (those that have previously been infected and now immune) should rip off their masks and start socializing asap. This is the ONLY way to stop the growth and further mutations of this virus.

Vaccines are reactive (not proactive) measures.

Social distancing is hiding; playing defense (not offense) measures.

Doing nothing to stop the growth and mutations of this virus means it will not stop growing and mutating.

[Steve3007]

Hopefully you are not going to claim success (and winning of the bet) if UK is still masking/social distancing.

https://onlinephilosophyclub.com/forums ... 95#p378995

I'm happy to bet you £100 or $100, whichever you like, that one year from now life in the UK will be pretty much back to normal whether or not masks are still being worn.

As I said there and elsewhere, I can see mask wearing, to some extent, continuing when social distancing has stopped and normal life has returned, as it is practiced in Japan, for example, and was before Covid-19. Hence my prediction is that by March 2022 social distancing will have gone and normal life will have resumed as set out in the June 21st section of the phased reduction to which I linked. That doesn't necessarily mean an end to all masks. If normal life has resumed, without social distancing, but a lot of people are still wearing masks in public places I will regard myself as having won. Do you disagree with that?

[Steve3007]

Here's that June 21st section from the UK government guidance for reference:

Social contact
By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

Business, activities and events
We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.

As we move through each of these phases in the roadmap, we must all remember that COVID-19 remains a part of our lives. We are going to have to keep living our lives differently to keep ourselves and others safe. We must carry on with ‘hands, face, space’. Comply with the COVID-Secure measures that remain in place. Meet outdoors when we can and keep letting fresh air in. Get tested when needed. Get vaccinated when offered. If we all continue to play our part, we will be that bit closer to a future that is more familiar.