The Future of Commuting: Hopeful or Questionable?

[WanderingGaze22]

From blimps that are designed more differently that the last ones to three motor electric-powered trucks, the idea of environmentally safe vehicles inches closer to becoming reality. But if and when this becomes a part of society, how will the public be able to apply the use of non-exhaust emission permanently? Where I live, there is an app called Circuit which uses electric-powered carts as taxis to transport up to five people and even a wheelchair. The range is under a mile or so but the vehicles are fast and quite durable and of course come with seatbelts. I even own an electric-powered scooter that has good speed. Think about all your communities are doing to reduce the carbon footprint as well as how far they have come to do so. Do you believe bikes will become more influential in the future or will we still stick them on the rack of carbon dioxide spewing buses ten years from now?

[Steve3007]

It already is part of society. Where I live, at least, an increasing proportion of cars on the roads are electric. Electric trucks are now also being developed. Electric buses have already been developed. In the small company for which I work, we're gradually moving over to electric vehicles. My sister (as an example) does a job which requires a lot of driving. They (her and her family) have solar panels on their roof and a battery in the loft. In the summer, at least, her car is entirely solar powered.

Obviously there are problems to overcome. Some that spring to mind are:

1. How to generate the electricity sustainably as the demand grows. (A lot of offshore wind here. Solar is getting much cheaper.)
2. The mix between electric motor driven and hydrogen engine driven cars.
3. The relative slowness of charging, compared to filling a tank with liquid fuel.
4. The locations of charging points.
5. The environmental issues caused by the need to manufacture and replace batteries.
6. Establishing standards, as always has to happen with major new technologies.

Those are all solvable issues. Number 3 is a particular problem where I live because most people don't have off-street parking, so can't easily charge up overnight at home. I envisage a system arising whereby charging points are placed in streets and supermarket carparks like lamp posts. You'd just park and automatically be charged and charged, so to speak.

So my answer is: hopeful. And yes, I do believe bikes have an important part to play. But the move to electric vehicles is happening now.

[WanderingGaze22]

It already is part of society. Where I live, at least, an increasing proportion of cars on the roads are electric. Electric trucks are now also being developed. Electric buses have already been developed. In the small company for which I work, we're gradually moving over to electric vehicles. My sister (as an example) does a job which requires a lot of driving. They (her and her family) have solar panels on their roof and a battery in the loft. In the summer, at least, her car is entirely solar powered.

Obviously there are problems to overcome. Some that spring to mind are:

1. How to generate the electricity sustainably as the demand grows. (A lot of offshore wind here. Solar is getting much cheaper.)
2. The mix between electric motor driven and hydrogen engine driven cars.
3. The relative slowness of charging, compared to filling a tank with liquid fuel.
4. The locations of charging points.
5. The environmental issues caused by the need to manufacture and replace batteries.
6. Establishing standards, as always has to happen with major new technologies.

Those are all solvable issues. Number 3 is a particular problem where I live because most people don't have off-street parking, so can't easily charge up overnight at home. I envisage a system arising whereby charging points are placed in streets and supermarket carparks like lamp posts. You'd just park and automatically be charged and charged, so to speak.

So my answer is: hopeful. And yes, I do believe bikes have an important part to play. But the move to electric vehicles is happening now.

Thank you for the fast reply, and you bring up some valid points with the pros and cons of such changes. So many factors to consider and the changes to be made to the systems.

[LuckyR]

Well if you live where electricity is generated from water, nuclear, wind or solar, that's true. OTOH, if you live where electricity is generated from fossil fuels (60% of the US market) you are kidding yourself.

[chewybrian]

3. The relative slowness of charging, compared to filling a tank with liquid fuel.


Those are all solvable issues. Number 3 is a particular problem where I live because most people don't have off-street parking, so can't easily charge up overnight at home. I envisage a system arising whereby charging points are placed in streets and supermarket carparks like lamp posts. You'd just park and automatically be charged and charged, so to speak.

I always figured we would develop a system to swap battery packs. You'd pull up to a station and an automated rig would remove your batteries and replace them with a charged set for a fee. Think of it like swapping an empty propane tank for a full one. It seems difficult and expensive at first glance, but if you did it at a big enough scale the cost per swap would come down. Each swap would have to include the depreciation on the batteries such that you paid all the costs as you went. One bonus would be that nobody would have to worry about a big financial hit for having to replace their own batteries.

[Steve3007]

I always figured we would develop a system to swap battery packs. You'd pull up to a station and an automated rig would remove your batteries and replace them with a charged set for a fee. Think of it like swapping an empty propane tank for a full one. It seems difficult and expensive at first glance, but if you did it at a big enough scale the cost per swap would come down. Each swap would have to include the depreciation on the batteries such that you paid all the costs as you went. One bonus would be that nobody would have to worry about a big financial hit for having to replace their own batteries.

Yeah, that would make a lot of sense. We sometimes discuss this kind of thing at work and that is something we've discussed, along with the analogy with propane tanks. As you said, it would also address the problem of battery depreciation. With modern phones they make it difficult and fiddly to replace the battery partly because of the need to make the phone waterproof (and presumably for cynical commercial reasons too). But there shouldn't be any such problem with vehicles.

As far as I can tell, it's not something that's being seriously considered though. At least not yet. Most of the effort seems to be going into addressing the charging problem. The fact that, as you said, it seems difficult and expensive at first glance, and needs large scale to work, might mean that it's one of those examples where the free market struggles because of its non-forward-looking nature, and because there are some kinds of systems that benefit all but which no individual market player has an interest in putting into place.