What is randomness?

Use this forum to discuss the philosophy of science. Philosophy of science deals with the assumptions, foundations, and implications of science.
enegue
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by enegue »

Spiral Out wrote:If you cannot possibly know the causes for any given phenomenon then you also cannot assume the assumed causes have any specific order or direct causal effect, but merely an unknown degree of (also assumed) influence, or not.

If you don't know then you don't know. Assumptions are ****.
Well, I'm guessing your speciality is in the humanities, Spiral. Here's a page from Berkeley University that you might find informative.

Cheers,
enegue
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Spiral Out
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Spiral Out »

Thanks for that article, enegue.
Berkeley University wrote:There is consistency in the causes that operate in the natural world. In other words, the same causes come into play in related situations and these causes are predictable.
Yes indeed, but only to a somewhat limited degree. The example given relative to the above quote is that of gravity. Fair enough.

So we know that if we hold something above the floor and let go of it then it will fall to the floor. Done deal.

However, can it be consistently and accurately predicted in what precise state the object will end up, as in what location on the floor, what position on the floor, what specific damage(s) it will incur (if any), what damage(s) the floor will incur (if any), will pieces separate from the object and what will be the specific location, position and condition of those pieces as well, etc?

That is the random we speak of.
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Steve3007
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Steve3007 »

Spiral Out:
Is that what good scientists do? They make an assumption based on an unjustified possibility and then prove or falsify it with an inherent lack of knowledge?
That's not what enegue said you do.
If you cannot possibly know the causes for any given phenomenon then you also cannot assume the assumed causes have any specific order or direct causal effect, but merely an unknown degree of (also assumed) influence, or not.
But that statement hangs on the phrase "cannot possibly know". Enegue's point, as I understand it, is that it is inherently impossible to know that you "cannot possibly know" because the statement: "it is not possible to know" is one of those generalizations that refers to a potentially infinite number of observations. So it would take you an infinite amount of time to confirm it. Like all such general statements it cannot be definitely confirmed by observation; only definitely refuted.

That, I think, is why enegue proposes that randomness can only ever be regarded as an incompleteness of knowledge which is, at least in principle if not in practice, open to further investigation.

But, if you go on to discuss Quantum Mechanics, (as 99% of the topics in the science section of this forum sooner or later seem to do!) you will see this proposition described in terms of "hidden variable theories" and see some refutations of those theories and propositions that QM does indeed demonstrate genuine randomness and not merely lack of knowledge.
Jklint
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Jklint »

Randomness is when one particle (pick any particle) doesn't know what the other one is doing or where its going. Randomness is a "failure of communication". Ergo, each particle, including the human kind, is forced to become independent, in effect, saying to the other particle "screw you". It is the upshot of events no longer in proximity when the "gravity" which creates organization is too tenuous to provide a system. Randomness is like a drunk who, standing still, waits for his address to pass by so he can insert the key.

Sorry, this is the best I can do. I'll leave the truly intelligent stuff to the forum science specialists to interpret what randomness really is or otherwise stated to un-randomize randomness. :mrgreen:
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Spiral Out
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Spiral Out »

Steve3007 wrote:Enegue's point, as I understand it, is that it is inherently impossible to know that you "cannot possibly know" because the statement: "it is not possible to know" is one of those generalizations that refers to a potentially infinite number of observations. So it would take you an infinite amount of time to confirm it. Like all such general statements it cannot be definitely confirmed by observation; only definitely refuted.
I think you're losing focus. We're speaking of the nature of randomness.
Spiral Out wrote:So we know that if we hold something above the floor and let go of it then it will fall to the floor. Done deal.

However, can it be consistently and accurately predicted in what precise state the object will end up, as in what location on the floor, what position on the floor, what specific damage(s) it will incur (if any), what damage(s) the floor will incur (if any), will pieces separate from the object and what will be the specific location, position and condition of those pieces as well, etc?

That is the random we speak of.
The question is "what is randomness?" The above answers that question. If the causes are not known then the effects also will not be known. If the effects are not known in advance (prediction) then the causes cannot be assumed in retrospect.

Randomness need only be apparent, even if it is actual. It cannot be known to be actual, only that it is apparent. In Human understanding, it is only the apparent that is necessarily considered.
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enegue
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by enegue »

Spiral Out wrote:If the causes are not known then the effects also will not be known.
I think a community of Spiral Out's would never have discovered gravity, if this were true.

Cheers,
enegue
Last edited by enegue on May 13th, 2014, 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Spiral Out
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Spiral Out »

Spiral Out wrote:If the causes are not known then the effects also will not be known.
enegue wrote:I think a community of Spiral Out's would never have discovered gravity, if this were true.
Misrepresentation via selective quoting out of context. Bravo!

The entire thought behind that selective snippet was this:
Spiral Out wrote:Yes indeed, but only to a somewhat limited degree. The example given relative to the above quote is that of gravity. Fair enough.

So we know that if we hold something above the floor and let go of it then it will fall to the floor. Done deal.

However, can it be consistently and accurately predicted in what precise state the object will end up, as in what location on the floor, what position on the floor, what specific damage(s) it will incur (if any), what damage(s) the floor will incur (if any), will pieces separate from the object and what will be the specific location, position and condition of those pieces as well, etc?

That is the random we speak of.
Then, following up on that, I had stated:
Spiral Out wrote:The question is "what is randomness?" The above answers that question. If the causes are not known then the effects also will not be known. If the effects are not known in advance (prediction) then the causes cannot be assumed in retrospect.
So, now that all the information is there, can you address it intelligently?
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enegue
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by enegue »

Sorry, Spiral.

I was replying based on the assumption that I had already addressed your post about gravity. I was surprised not to see it in the history of the discussion, so I had a look on my other computer and found that I never sent it. Never mind. If you can forgive my light-hearted gibe, you might like to consider my thoughts about that post.
Spiral Out wrote:However, can it be consistently and accurately predicted in what precise state the object will end up, as in what location on the floor, what position on the floor, what specific damage(s) it will incur (if any), what damage(s) the floor will incur (if any), will pieces separate from the object and what will be the specific location, position and condition of those pieces as well, etc?

That is the random we speak of.
The reason we can't predict all those things is because our knowledge of the forces involved is incomplete. I guess your object could be a vase. What was it made from, glass or clay? How thick was the clay/glass? What shape was it? Was is glazed? How thick was the glazing? Did it have any faults in its manufacture? At what angle did it strike the floor? Was there a breeze blowing through a window or a door? At what speed was the vase struck? Was it spinning as it fell? There are so many variables involved it wouldn't be reasonable to suggest you could predict the outcome, BUT the outcome is still the result of the forces in play.

Is the roll of a die on a crap table, random? We can't know all the forces involved, but we know enough about them to be able to tinker with the die so that it's motion is more predictable. The more we learn about the forces in play, the more subtle can be our tinkering. Cheating is a pretty powerful mechanism for discovery.

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enegue
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Spiral Out
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Spiral Out »

enegue wrote:If you can forgive my light-hearted gibe, you might like to consider my thoughts about that post.
I've been a bit edgy lately. Other threads have gotten me worked up a bit. My apologies to you.
enegue wrote:There are so many variables involved it wouldn't be reasonable to suggest you could predict the outcome, BUT the outcome is still the result of the forces in play.
Agreed. That's why I had stated that randomness, even if it happens to be actual, need only be apparent since that is all we can perceive. It is fundamentally impossible for Humans to ever have the capacity to have knowledge of all associated variables in any given event. As far as I'm concerned, that is randomness.
enegue wrote:Is the roll of a die on a crap table, random?
By my logic above, I would say it is a random event, even though the outcomes are limited, they can never be consistently predictable to within a reasonable repeatability.
enegue wrote:We can't know all the forces involved, but we know enough about them to be able to tinker with the die so that it's motion is more predictable. The more we learn about the forces in play, the more subtle can be our tinkering.
We can also add more variables to offset the tinkering. In the end, I think the unpredictability of consciously adding variables would cause randomness to prevail over any tinkering we could do to increase predictability.

Case in point: In the vase example, even if we carefully engineered all of the conditional factors involved that we could possibly "control", we still could not predict the resultant chaotic effects of such a complex event.
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enegue
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by enegue »

I think, pragmatically, we are pretty much on the same page. However, philosophically, you still hold out for the possibility of spontaneous uncaused events, whereas I don't.

Cheers,
enegue
Ruskin
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Ruskin »

What is randomness?
retgrtjkvbrqrcerthje7nzabhr5yb5nr5n ratfqe2g45bnt6ujnyuiu97tjntfghvddcvvetzc xvfbdx trsfgvsrc vbfbtycr v trfdsdv r
enegue
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by enegue »

Ruskin wrote:
What is randomness?
retgrtjkvbrqrcerthje7nzabhr5yb5nr5n ratfqe2g45bnt6ujnyuiu97tjntfghvddcvvetzc xvfbdx trsfgvsrc vbfbtycr v trfdsdv r
I'm afraid that wasn't a spontaneous uncaused event, Ruskin.

Cheers,
enegue
Steve3007
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Steve3007 »

Ruskin:

Those "random" characters come almost exclusively from the left side of the keyboard.

Are you left handed?
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Spiral Out
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Spiral Out »

enegue wrote:However, philosophically, you still hold out for the possibility of spontaneous uncaused events, whereas I don't.
I don't believe anything can be uncaused. There is no causeless effect. I only offer that it is impossible for Humans to be able to comprehend all of the causes involved, and that's enough for something to be considered random. Apparent randomness is sufficient for the qualification of the concept.
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Steve3007
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Re: What is randomness?

Post by Steve3007 »

Spiral Out:
I don't believe anything can be uncaused. There is no causeless effect.
On what basis do you establish, to your satisfaction, the existence of these causes as distinct from "mere" correlations?
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