How useful are ensembles
- Philosophy Explorer
- Posts: 2116
- Joined: May 25th, 2013, 8:41 pm
How useful are ensembles
The most visible exposure the public has to ensembles is in weather forecasting, particularly with hurricanes. For example, one model would predict a path with a hurricane while another model would predict another path.
The key question is how to handle the information? Should one go with the entire ensemble and average the results? Or should one go with the historically most reliable model?
Something to think about. What have you say about this?
PhilX
-
- Posts: 176
- Joined: July 18th, 2010, 3:38 pm
- Favorite Philosopher: Bertrand Russel
Re: How useful are ensembles
My guess would be they go with an average, but I don't really know and as weather forecasting is a very complicated science I don't think I'd be able to tell what goes best unless I took several years studying it.
- Philosophy Explorer
- Posts: 2116
- Joined: May 25th, 2013, 8:41 pm
Re: How useful are ensembles
You may be very well right about this. Years ago I heard that the satellites in some way would help in weather forecasting, but I have doubts about this and you supplied an answer that supports my doubts. It'd be interesting to hear from others on this and in other areas where ensembles are used.Keen wrote:I've never seen these before, but from what I've read, it's a method supposed to deal with dynamical systems that are chaotic. The thing is, that even though in theory, weather is 100% predictable, in reality it's not due to the huge number of parameters and the fact that even though all the equations involved have unique solutions, those solutions are impossible to calculate, so statistical methods like these ensembles are needed.
My guess would be they go with an average, but I don't really know and as weather forecasting is a very complicated science I don't think I'd be able to tell what goes best unless I took several years studying it.
PhilX
2024 Philosophy Books of the Month
2023 Philosophy Books of the Month
Mark Victor Hansen, Relentless: Wisdom Behind the Incomparable Chicken Soup for the Soul
by Mitzi Perdue
February 2023
Rediscovering the Wisdom of Human Nature: How Civilization Destroys Happiness
by Chet Shupe
March 2023