Exploring this question will allow us a better understanding of how natural systems work, how evolution works, and even lend insight into how communication works. It provides a conceptual framework which is distinct from other understandings of probability which allows us to understand more clearly how things function.

Understanding the question of objective probability of specific state will allow us to understand:

- What is the information content of a physical system?

- What is the complexity of a physical system?

Taking these ideas to a larger level, we will eventually be able to ask:

- What is the information content of the universe as a whole?

- What is the complexity of the universe as a whole?

To begin, we need to define some terms.

The objective probability of specific state is the probability at a specific point in time that a physical system exists in its state, relative to an earlier specific state at an earlier specific point in time,

*considered independently from any specific observers knowledge or expectation*. This will be called the "Oposs probability". (sorry about the redundancy)

For any system, there are many probabilities that can be understood. For example, we can ask of a deck of cards- what is the probability we will randomly draw a red card? Or, what is the probability we will draw a spade? These are probability questions that have different answers. Neither of the questions is "more correct" but they have different answers, and it is important when looking at questions of probability to see if two questions are the same or different before accidentally conflating them.

Similarly, for any system, there can be different observers with different knowledge or expectations. We can imagine a machine which accepts a deck of cards and observers are told it "randomly spits out a card". Then we can ask- what is the probability it will spit out the Ace of spades? To the first observer, it appears to be 1 in 52. A machinist may open the machine and see that all of the red cards are discarded before the shuffle, and to this person it appears to be 1 in 26. A second machinist may observe that after the first separation, another card separation takes place and only the spades are left before the shuffle. This again changes the probability. These are all subjective probabilities, and are valuable, but different than the objective probability, which exists independently of any specific observers knowledge or belief.

When there is talk about the probability of physical systems, it normally is in reference to statistical mechanics. The Oposs probability is a distinct probability from statistical mechanics.

In statistical mechanics, there is a macrostate which contains many microstates, and the system moves probabilistically towards the macrostate which contains the majority of micro states. This is a different question of probability than Oposs, as statistical mechanics is a question of "what is the probability of the current state falling into a macro state", not a question of "what is the probability of a specific micro state".

For example, if one had a box full of deterministically moving molecules on one side, with a separation preventing them from moving to the other side, we can ask the question: when we remove the partition, what is the probability at a future point in time that we have reached a macro state where the molecules are evenly distributed? We can compute the probability, without knowledge of where the particles are specifically but only a gross knowledge of the energy, at any point in time in the future. However, this question of probability is not Oposs probability. We can see for this example, given the specific starting state and deterministic movement of the molecules, at every later time there is a 100% probability the molecules are at a given location. Because the molecules are moving deterministically, they do not change the probability of the Oposs. There is a 100% probability for each moment in time moving forwards that it exists at a specific state.

The Oposs is 100% at all times for this system.

The revelation here is that when one reads about "the probability of the system" or "the probability of the universe" the discussion is often about the statistical mechanic probability. This is a useful, but different, question from the Oposs probability. We shouldn't conflate them.

So now that we are clear there is a totally different probability from the statistical mechanical probability, we can ask- what is it? What does it mean?

If there are specific questions about how to interpret this notion of probability with regards to physical systems I'd like to hear them.