Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Use this forum to discuss the philosophy of science. Philosophy of science deals with the assumptions, foundations, and implications of science.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:Can you try to understand my meaning, or are you just interested in looking for technically gotcha points?
I'm trying to work out whether you genuinely can't see that increasing the proportion of immune people increases the average distance between vulnerable/infected people, or whether you can see it, but don't want to concede it, perhaps because you think it has some bearing on your point about immune people blocking the virus.

In other words, I'm trying to work out why you cling to self-evidently false claims. I'm wondering whether you think that conceding one point weakens your argument on other points. It doesn't necessarily, of course.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

Steve, it seems like your only reason for debate is to try to find "gotcha points" so as to personally bash RJG.
Just incidentally: there are no "gotcha points" and this is not "personally bashing RJG". As I've said, you've declared your powers of reasoning to be superior to those of the people who study the Covid-19 virus and you've declared those superior powers of reasoning to lead to the conclusion that people should remove their masks and stop social distancing and ignore the advice of those you consider to be inferior to you in their powers of reasoning. You've repeated that advice from three separate topics in this forum. Perhaps other places too. It's advice that would, if taken seriously, lead to more deaths than if not taken seriously. Nobody has forced you to do that. You've done it voluntarily on a public discussion forum.

So no, this isn't about "gotcha points".
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RJG
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by RJG »

Steve, I understand your technical argument, but you are refusing to see/understand how my reference of the word "density" actually agrees with your technical argument. And if you refuse to try to understand another person's viewpoint, then this allows you to keep bashing him, because, after-all, that is what it seems that you are most interested in. Bashing first. Honest discussion second (or third). -- The proof of this is just look back at all your recent responses towards me, always with a condescending tone, never one of sincere, honest debate and discussion.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:Steve, I understand your technical argument, but you are refusing to see/understand how my reference of the word "density" actually agrees with your technical argument...
The argument is quite simple. It is that increasing the proportion of immune people increases the average distance between vulnerable/infected people. Simple. Here are your previous thoughts on that:
RJG wrote:The point is that "distance" between vulnerable people has absolutely no bearing on the "density" of immune people to the total population.

Why is this so difficult to comprehend?
So you've changed your mind on this, yes?
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RJG
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by RJG »

...aren't you missing something important in that last statement of mine?
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:...aren't you missing something important in that last statement of mine?
This one?
The proof of this is just look back at all your recent responses towards me, always with a condescending tone, never one of sincere, honest debate and discussion.
Obviously it depends how you define condescension. I guess some might say declaring oneself to have uniquely superior powers of reasoning could be classed as condescending. What do you think? But I'd say that you perception of my tone isn't really relevant.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:Steve, I understand your technical argument, but you are refusing to see/understand how my reference of the word "density" actually agrees with your technical argument...
The argument is quite simple. It is that increasing the proportion of immune people increases the average distance between vulnerable/infected people. Simple. Here are your previous thoughts on that:
RJG wrote:The point is that "distance" between vulnerable people has absolutely no bearing on the "density" of immune people to the total population.

Why is this so difficult to comprehend?
So you've changed your mind on this, yes?

---

It's a pity I'm not going to get an answer to this kind of thing because it's interesting to know what motivates you to say such strange things and on this particular topic there's the added importance of it literally being a life-or-death matter. It's disappointing that when you don't have an answer your resort to simply telling me your perception of my tone and leaving it there. As I've said, it looks like your motivation could be that you simply can't concede to having made a mistake on any issue, even if that issues doesn't necessarily affect your central point. As I said in that previous post to which I linked earlier, if you really want to, you can keep that central point about immune people blocking the virus while also conceding the simple point that increasing the proportion of immune people increases the average distance between vulnerable/infected people. But you just won't do it.

There's nothing wrong with getting things wrong! It's only wrong if you refuse to ever admit that it's happened. Especially on a subject as important as this.
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RJG
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by RJG »

Steve3007 wrote:The argument is quite simple. It is that increasing the proportion of immune people increases the average distance between vulnerable/infected people. Simple. Here are your previous thoughts on that:

"The point is that "distance" between vulnerable people has absolutely no bearing on the "density" of immune people to the total population." -RJG
My statement is TRUE. The "distance" between vulnerable people has absolutely no bearing on the "density" of immune people to the total population, within a given environment.

For example:
If we have 10 marbles in a shoe box (within a given environment). And 6 of these marbles are blue (immune) and 4 are red (vulnerable). Then the "distance" between the red marbles (vulnerable) has absolutely no bearing on the density of the blue marbles to the total marbles within the given environment.

If you don't believe me, then try it yourself! - move the red marbles as far apart as possible (to increase the "distance" between them). And you will see that no matter how far apart you move them, you will still have 6 blue marbles (out of 10 total) in the shoe box.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:move the red marbles as far apart as possible (to increase the "distance" between them). And you will see that no matter how far apart you move them, you will still have 6 blue marbles (out of 10 total) in the shoe box.
viewtopic.php?p=378360#p378360

As you've said, we're flogging a dead horse. I'll never convince you and you'll never convince me. From my point of view you're endlessly insisting the equivalent of 2 + 2 = 5. Obviously from your point of view you're not. So I guess we leave it there, place our bets and each expect the other to insist, one year from now, that they won.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:If you are agreeable to the terms below then count me in!

1. UK keeps the same level of masking and social distancing as they do now to at least August 1, 2021
2. If by March 1, 2022, the virus (and all its mutations) ARE "under control" then RJG owes Steve3007 $100
3. If by March 1, 2022, the virus (and all its mutations) are NOT "under control" then Steve3007 owes RJG $100

"Under control" is to be defined as not needing masking or social distancing anymore to maintain normal economic and social life.
Back on the subject of this wager then, in an earlier post I queried point 1. I asked: what if they don't? You didn't specify whether that means, in your view, the bet is off or you will deem one of us to have won.

I ask because as I've said vaccination levels are increasing, and infection/death rates are dropping, currently at a rate where social distancing is planned to be reduced according to this roadmap (as they call it):

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 21-summary

I mentioned some of the dates shown there in previous posts.
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RJG
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by RJG »

Steve, revise the terms of the wager however you please, and then I'll decide to accept, not-accept, or suggest another revision. We can go back and forth until we are both satisfied with terms of the wager.
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:Steve, revise the terms of the wager however you please, and then I'll decide to accept, not-accept, or suggest another revision. We can go back and forth until we are both satisfied with terms of the wager.
Sounds fair enough. Here's my suggestion then:

The UK infection/death rate is currently declining. If it continues to decline, the UK government plans a phased reduction of social distancing as set out in this guidance document:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 21-summary

If the re-opening happens on dates no earlier than those given in that government guidance then:

If by March 1, 2022, the virus (and all its mutations) ARE "under control" then RJG owes Steve3007 $100
If by March 1, 2022, the virus (and all its mutations) are NOT "under control" then Steve3007 owes RJG $100

If the re-opening happens earlier than those dates then the bet is off. (Since they are explicitly given as "no earlier than..." dates this is unlikely to happen.)


"Under control" is defined as the 7 day average death rate being around what it was last summer, or lower, with the result that the lifting of social distancing to at least the level shown at the end of that government guidance ("Step 4 - not before 21 June") is still in place.

Here's the source I propose to use for the 7 day average death rate:

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+s ... e&ie=UTF-8
Steve3007
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

A little suggestion about the money: If neither of us are keen to give the other personal financial details, one option is for the loser to pay $100 to a charity of their choice, and post some kind of evidence that that's been done here.
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RJG
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Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by RJG »

Well done Steve. Yes, I accept these terms along with the last suggestion that the money goes to charity. We can meet up here again on March 1, 2022 to settle the wager. Thanks, and see you then!

Here is another good link we could use in the wager: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Steve3007
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Joined: June 15th, 2011, 5:53 pm

Re: Covid-19 highlights the pros and cons of mathematical models

Post by Steve3007 »

RJG wrote:Here is another good link we could use in the wager: ...
Yes. Good. I've looked at that one before myself, and it seems to roughly agree with the other one I linked to. I presume it uses the same source data.
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