RJG wrote:Steve, revise the terms of the wager however you please, and then I'll decide to accept, not-accept, or suggest another revision. We can go back and forth until we are both satisfied with terms of the wager.
Sounds fair enough. Here's my suggestion then:
The UK infection/death rate is currently declining. If it continues to decline, the UK government plans a phased reduction of social distancing as set out in this guidance document:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 21-summary
If the re-opening happens on dates no earlier than those given in that government guidance then:
If by March 1, 2022, the virus (and all its mutations) ARE "under control" then RJG owes Steve3007 $100
If by March 1, 2022, the virus (and all its mutations) are NOT "under control" then Steve3007 owes RJG $100
If the re-opening happens earlier than those dates then the bet is off. (Since they are explicitly given as "no earlier than..." dates this is unlikely to happen.)
"Under control" is defined as the 7 day average death rate being around what it was last summer, or lower, with the result that the lifting of social distancing to at least the level shown at the end of that government guidance ("Step 4 - not before 21 June") is still in place.
Here's the source I propose to use for the 7 day average death rate:
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+s ... e&ie=UTF-8