I could schedule a BBQ in winter. After all the ten day forecast is not 100% accurate. Maybe it will be 30 degrees Celsius. Who knows?
Precisely. Hopefully Atreyu gets the point of what you're saying here.
And it is that one should not 'believe' in the climatology models which are predicting what the climate will be 50-100 years out, any more than one should 'believe' in the 10th day of a 10-day weather forecast. In fact, the models are even less reliable than the 10-day forecasts.
The reason why weather forecasting is less reliable the further into the future you go is that weather is a chaotic system. But a system which is chaotic on a small scale can be very predictable on a large scale. An analogy is the laws of thermodynamics and ideal gases. These are very precise and accurate laws which work very well. But they apply to large collections of particles which, on a small scale, are entirely random and unpredictable. You can't tell where an individual gas molecule is going to be in a few seconds. But you can tell very accurately what will happen to the gas as a whole if you change the pressure, volume or temperature.
It is predictable that the more fossil fuels we burn the more CO2 there will be in the atmosphere. And it is predictable that the more greenhouse gases, such as CO2, there are in the atmosphere the higher the global average temperature will go. This is completely different
from trying to predict the short term local weather. There is no comparison whatsoever between the two.
We should not be basing laws and big decisions on what computer models are telling us our climate will be like decades from now. The 'weight' of the proposed changes are too 'heavy' compared to the accuracy of the models, which are, in fact, merely glorified educated guesses...
Present your evidence that these models are glorified educational guesses. Or is it just a hunch?