Odd that you should mix complex systems (jet aeroplanes), and quantum mechanics in a comment on the same subject. Metal fatigue was understood long before jets were built. I am not certain that the part that was responsible for the plane crashes was specifically subject to a rigorous metal fatigue prediction. If it was, then it does not violate my post since the prediction was better than pure chance yet not 100% accurate. This I called either incomplete understanding or a complete understanding of part of the issue. OTOH, let's say the part next to it, was subject to a rigorous metal fatigue assay and failed right on schedule. 100% of the time. Well, we pretty much know enough about that particular metal's fatigue at that point to use wording such as: "proof", "fact" and "causality" to describe it's behavior and our understand of it.Iapetus wrote: ↑July 27th, 2018, 6:37 am Reply to Lucky R:
I am with you in the broad sense of what you are saying but I think that I detect inbuilt dangers.
OTOH, say I use my understanding to predict future events, if I succeed 100% of the time, I truly understand the issue and can claim that "this" causes "that". That is a fact and true causality.
If you succeed 100% of the time, then that certainly does not mean that you truly understand the issue. For example, the earliest Comet jet airliners flew with remarkable safety until they started plunging from the skies. The ‘100%’ was fine until it wasn’t when metal fatigue started to rear its ugly head. As Richard Feynman (may have) said, "If you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don't understand quantum mechanics". If a scientist achieves 100% in any result, then that virtually guarantees an inadequate sample size or a sampling error. And I can't begin to touch on the pitfalls of trying to associate correlation with causation.
As to quantum events, as you know there is uncertainty built into the issue. Therefore 100% accuracy of prediction of single events is not possible. Thus does not fall within the confines of my post, so you are free to substitute anything you want to address that.