Can studying history be of any importance?
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Can studying history be of any importance?
In general terms of speaking, do you believe in the concept of "history repeats itself"? By studying the ancient socio-political events and let's say, we identified a pattern in them which has repeated in the history, can we apply it to today's politics and guess what might happen next? Most importantly, if the future can be accurately guessed and if it is harmful, will humans be ready to change their today's behaviour to prevent a future event, which is based on a speculation which is made by studying history? Ultimately, can studying history be of any importance?
- Count Lucanor
- Posts: 2318
- Joined: May 6th, 2017, 5:08 pm
- Favorite Philosopher: Umberto Eco
- Location: Panama
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
― Marcus Tullius Cicero
- Sculptor1
- Posts: 7092
- Joined: May 16th, 2019, 5:35 am
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
"These forums are not for preaching, non-philosophical sermons or making religious or other assertions without providing any argument for them. There is a big different between a philosophy of religion forum versus a religion forum."
-
- Posts: 75
- Joined: February 12th, 2021, 2:14 pm
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
Given your reference to God's Divine Plan and your assumed ability to predict the future based on it, I take it that you're a strict determinist?
In any case, to answer your question, I like the way Twain put it: "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes."
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
I see. Seemingly this author has wasted his time on some useless research.Count Lucanor wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 4:13 pm Studying history in a systematic way is important. The Bible is pure religious narrative, mostly fiction and nonsense. Any attempt to draw any historical lessons from it is a waste of time.
And I do agree with your point. If we consider historical lessons in a systematic way, we can understand a general pattern of the socio-political events that happen during rise and fall of cultures. We can divide this knowledge into various stages and apply (or adopt) them to today's society and predict what might come next. But this won't be 100% accurate since there is always a chance for random things to happen, and most importantly it is about humans, who are very hard to predict on
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
I agree with you for certain extent. That is why I have forwra seperate topic to discuss about the author's true intention behind this book.Sculptor1 wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 5:17 pm What an odd Book choice by a Forum whose rules include a proscription on preaching.
"These forums are not for preaching, non-philosophical sermons or making religious or other assertions without providing any argument for them. There is a big different between a philosophy of religion forum versus a religion forum."
But I won't consider this as completely preaching, since there is no mentioning about the modern Christian beliefs or even about Jesus. This book is mainly based in ancient scriptures and work of scholars, whose main way of proving things was apologia. So I think that we are currently not supporting any preaching through this forum
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
Well, I am not a determinist. I believe in random happenings and I also believe that there is a chance of predicting socio-political events in a mass scale, based on the systematic studies on what happened in similar situations previously.BobS wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 7:49 pmGiven your reference to God's Divine Plan and your assumed ability to predict the future based on it, I take it that you're a strict determinist?
In any case, to answer your question, I like the way Twain put it: "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes."
I think Twain has accurately said that. Repeating something means its happening in the exact same way. But with time many things change and the possibility for sosomething to happen in a exactly similar way is reduced. But things can happen repeatedly in a similar pattern, like rhyming words in a poem or a song
- WarrenZ
- New Trial Member
- Posts: 8
- Joined: February 25th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
In defense of History, although we cannot use it to predict the future, we can perhaps use it to gauge what potentially can happen (e.g. Fascism, Bolshevism, etc.), and try our best to prevent them from happening.
However, events that really change the world are unpredictable precisely because they do not follow our historical observations. The Fukushima Nuclear Disaster was caused by a Tsunami that's bigger than anything that was recorded in 100 years. To say that "History repeats itself" would not do justice to History, whose beauty lies in its possibility.
- Count Lucanor
- Posts: 2318
- Joined: May 6th, 2017, 5:08 pm
- Favorite Philosopher: Umberto Eco
- Location: Panama
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
Yes, some patterns will repeat, but still the future is open, both because of the random events you mention, or because social forces are driven in one direction by conscious decisions.Sushan wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 8:46 pmI see. Seemingly this author has wasted his time on some useless research.Count Lucanor wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 4:13 pm Studying history in a systematic way is important. The Bible is pure religious narrative, mostly fiction and nonsense. Any attempt to draw any historical lessons from it is a waste of time.
And I do agree with your point. If we consider historical lessons in a systematic way, we can understand a general pattern of the socio-political events that happen during rise and fall of cultures. We can divide this knowledge into various stages and apply (or adopt) them to today's society and predict what might come next. But this won't be 100% accurate since there is always a chance for random things to happen, and most importantly it is about humans, who are very hard to predict on
― Marcus Tullius Cicero
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
That is true. If we take political leaders today, they do not depend on historical patterns to make thier future decisions. But they discuss with few people who are consciously thinking over the current situation and make speculations about the future, and depending on their ideas they arrange their plans. And our future is mainly dependant in such plans, unless any repetition of historical patterns, most of the timesCount Lucanor wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 9:25 pmYes, some patterns will repeat, but still the future is open, both because of the random events you mention, or because social forces are driven in one direction by conscious decisions.Sushan wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 8:46 pmI see. Seemingly this author has wasted his time on some useless research.Count Lucanor wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 4:13 pm Studying history in a systematic way is important. The Bible is pure religious narrative, mostly fiction and nonsense. Any attempt to draw any historical lessons from it is a waste of time.
And I do agree with your point. If we consider historical lessons in a systematic way, we can understand a general pattern of the socio-political events that happen during rise and fall of cultures. We can divide this knowledge into various stages and apply (or adopt) them to today's society and predict what might come next. But this won't be 100% accurate since there is always a chance for random things to happen, and most importantly it is about humans, who are very hard to predict on
– William James
-
- Posts: 75
- Joined: February 12th, 2021, 2:14 pm
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
Sorry, maybe I misunderstood. From the way you worded your initial message, I thought it was implied that you agreed with the author that there's such a thing as "God's Divine Plan," and that your question related to the secondary matter of whether very finely calibrated predictions, such as the author's, are justified in light of that plan.
If you don't agree with him that there such a thing as "God's Divine Plan,", then my question about determinism was misdirected. But if you do think that there's such a thing, then exactly what do you think it means for there to be such a plan? On the one hand, that God has a preference as to what takes place in the future, but he doesn't actually dictate what takes place, or, on the other hand, that he does dictate what takes place?
It seems to me that if God merely has a preference, then it's not at all relevant to making predictions based on past events, and there was no reason for you to refer to it. But if he does dictate what happens, then how is that not determinism? That was the point of my question.
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
I see. For the record, I do not believe in God. So I do not believe in God's plans either for the individuals or for the populations. My simple question for those who believe in God and pray for Him with various requests, why should such a supreme, almighty being cannot make all the humans equally prosper and live happily? How anyone with a cleat conscience can let one to be in Forbes as a millionaire and one to die on a street as a beggar?BobS wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 11:01 pmSorry, maybe I misunderstood. From the way you worded your initial message, I thought it was implied that you agreed with the author that there's such a thing as "God's Divine Plan," and that your question related to the secondary matter of whether very finely calibrated predictions, such as the author's, are justified in light of that plan.
If you don't agree with him that there such a thing as "God's Divine Plan,", then my question about determinism was misdirected. But if you do think that there's such a thing, then exactly what do you think it means for there to be such a plan? On the one hand, that God has a preference as to what takes place in the future, but he doesn't actually dictate what takes place, or, on the other hand, that he does dictate what takes place?
It seems to me that if God merely has a preference, then it's not at all relevant to making predictions based on past events, and there was no reason for you to refer to it. But if he does dictate what happens, then how is that not determinism? That was the point of my question.
I raised this question because it was suggested by the author, and I just wanted to see whether there are people who think alike. Seemingly it is merely a making of the author by putting few historical events into a very convincing pattern, and he has tried to predict the future depending on that. I believe that our future will be determined by our collective acts today. And since our collective minds are usually represented by the politicians, then it will depend on their decisions and acts. God has nothing to do with that.
– William James
-
- Posts: 75
- Joined: February 12th, 2021, 2:14 pm
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
I suppose that I could think of reasons, but since I'd be speculating about something that I don't believe in in the first place, I doubt that it would be very edifying. So I'll just leave it at this: my experience of religious people (specifically, Christians) is that they mostly break down into two groups: those who sort of generally believe in God, without troubling themselves too much over the details, and fundamentalists, who feel compelled to take the bible "literally," and then, since even that isn't enough for them, proceed to give every sentence the most extreme interpretation possible, and conclude that everything is explained by God's love for us. There is, of course, a third group, the members of which fret about the theological details without getting (in their minds) too literal, but that seems to be a pretty small group.Sushan wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2021, 12:38 am For the record, I do not believe in God. So I do not believe in God's plans either for the individuals or for the populations. My simple question for those who believe in God and pray for Him with various requests, why should such a supreme, almighty being cannot make all the humans equally prosper and live happily?
In the first camp, I'd place an acquaintance who once told me that he believed in God "because" it made him feel good. He was not receptive to my suggestion that, such being the case, he obviously also believed that on the morrow, upon waking up, he would discover that all disease, crime and world conflict would have disappeared. After all, what kind of a person would he be if that belief didn't make him feel good?
In the second camp, I'd put a friend of mine (friends through backgammon and tennis, not through shared intellectual pursuits) who's a born-again fundamentalist. He once pointed out how "wonderful" the world is, and said that that was proof of God's existence. (He also thinks that Pascal's wager is a "proof".) When I asked "what about bone cancer and ALS?", he said that the promise of heaven made that all better. In other words, the good things in the world prove that there's a god; the bad things prove that there's a heaven. When I said that to me it seemed screwed up that an all-wise, all-loving, all-powerful, etc., god would create a world in which living things had to eat other living things in order to survive, he said that "that was Adam's doing, not God's."
There's no reasoning with that kind of nonsense. One can only laugh and hope that, as the population grows, such people form a smaller and smaller minority of voters.
Oh, yeah. Both guys are Trump supporters.
- Sushan
- Book of the Month Discussion Leader
- Posts: 2221
- Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
- Contact:
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
I found myself laughing at your humorous, yet very practical and informative response. There are these Christians as you explained. The ones who just believe in God and the ones who believe in everything that the bible says. And this second group have whatever the nonsense to say to defend what they believe. Seemingly with the scientific advancements and the busy lifestyles, this sort of fellows are becoming scarce, and the rest of the world may not have to bother about them for much longer.BobS wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2021, 2:46 amI suppose that I could think of reasons, but since I'd be speculating about something that I don't believe in in the first place, I doubt that it would be very edifying. So I'll just leave it at this: my experience of religious people (specifically, Christians) is that they mostly break down into two groups: those who sort of generally believe in God, without troubling themselves too much over the details, and fundamentalists, who feel compelled to take the bible "literally," and then, since even that isn't enough for them, proceed to give every sentence the most extreme interpretation possible, and conclude that everything is explained by God's love for us. There is, of course, a third group, the members of which fret about the theological details without getting (in their minds) too literal, but that seems to be a pretty small group.Sushan wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2021, 12:38 am For the record, I do not believe in God. So I do not believe in God's plans either for the individuals or for the populations. My simple question for those who believe in God and pray for Him with various requests, why should such a supreme, almighty being cannot make all the humans equally prosper and live happily?
In the first camp, I'd place an acquaintance who once told me that he believed in God "because" it made him feel good. He was not receptive to my suggestion that, such being the case, he obviously also believed that on the morrow, upon waking up, he would discover that all disease, crime and world conflict would have disappeared. After all, what kind of a person would he be if that belief didn't make him feel good?
In the second camp, I'd put a friend of mine (friends through backgammon and tennis, not through shared intellectual pursuits) who's a born-again fundamentalist. He once pointed out how "wonderful" the world is, and said that that was proof of God's existence. (He also thinks that Pascal's wager is a "proof".) When I asked "what about bone cancer and ALS?", he said that the promise of heaven made that all better. In other words, the good things in the world prove that there's a god; the bad things prove that there's a heaven. When I said that to me it seemed screwed up that an all-wise, all-loving, all-powerful, etc., god would create a world in which living things had to eat other living things in order to survive, he said that "that was Adam's doing, not God's."
There's no reasoning with that kind of nonsense. One can only laugh and hope that, as the population grows, such people form a smaller and smaller minority of voters.
Oh, yeah. Both guys are Trump supporters.
And I get you as a Joe Biden supporter
– William James
-
- Posts: 957
- Joined: April 19th, 2020, 6:20 am
Re: Can studying history be of any importance?
Who is the author that you are referring to here?
Did that author mention what God's divine plan is exactly?
If yes, then what is God's divine plan exactly?
In general terms of speaking, do you believe in the concept of "history repeats itself"? [/quote]Sushan wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 12:55 pm He shows that, though the specific events are different, they follow a common pattern, so based on that we can predict what may come next when few of the initial events of the pattern occur. The author has used this to predict a future war against Israel by other powerful nations.
History, itself, does not repeat itself. Some human beings, however, may keep repeating and doing the same things over and over, but if when they are doing this, they are expecting the same results, then there is a name for this phenomena.
Human beings could guess absolutely anything. But it is only a 'guess'. A guess, however, just like an assumption and/or a theory is not necessarily true nor real at all, as they could all be false, wrong, and/or incorrect.
Sushan wrote: ↑March 2nd, 2021, 12:55 pm Most importantly, if the future can be accurately guessed and if it is harmful, will humans be ready to change their today's behaviour to prevent a future event, which is based on a speculation which is made by studying history? Ultimately, can studying history be of any importance?
Of course the future could be accurately guessed. But how does anyone know if that 'guess' is accurate or not until the time of what is guessed to happen or occur, actually happens and/or occurs?
2023/2024 Philosophy Books of the Month
Mark Victor Hansen, Relentless: Wisdom Behind the Incomparable Chicken Soup for the Soul
by Mitzi Perdue
February 2023
Rediscovering the Wisdom of Human Nature: How Civilization Destroys Happiness
by Chet Shupe
March 2023