Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

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Sushan
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Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Pattern-chaser »

Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
In part: I accept that all humans are unique - although we also share many things - but I believe that humans DO think and work in patterns. Not that we can only think in patterns, or by using patterns, of course.
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

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Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
"As usual... it depends."
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

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Pattern-chaser wrote: January 6th, 2022, 2:02 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
In part: I accept that all humans are unique - although we also share many things - but I believe that humans DO think and work in patterns. Not that we can only think in patterns, or by using patterns, of course.
When similar situations are taken into consideration, and when we look at how different people have reacted, we may be able to see some sort of a pattern. But I am sure there will be differences than similarities in those reactions as well as outcomes. If there really were patterns, how come the sociologists and people who study humans so far have not come up with a guide explaining how to act in various situations?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 7th, 2022, 2:34 am
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
What sort of groups are we referring to here? And what sort of predictions? Usually groups act according to their leader, and so will be their decision making. Then ultimately it all will depend on a single person, and predicting the thought procedure of an individual. Please correct me if I am wrong.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 10th, 2022, 1:48 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 7th, 2022, 2:34 am
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
What sort of groups are we referring to here? And what sort of predictions? Usually groups act according to their leader, and so will be their decision making. Then ultimately it all will depend on a single person, and predicting the thought procedure of an individual. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Not what I meant. I can say that 17% of people will choose chocolate ice cream and 13% will choose vanilla. But if a person walks up to my counter I can only correctly predict his choice 17% of the time at the most.
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Alan Masterman »

I think the word "gist" is significant. We tend to react as soon as we think we have the "gist" of the situation. This is understandable; evolutionary survival depends upon quick responses. Some of the time, we will misread the "gist" of the situation but, as long as we read it correctly more often than we read it incorrectly, the survival of the species is assured. Interpretation of the gist includes not only social interaction with other humans but also other natural forces: is this dog being friendly? Are these symptoms just a head cold?

Some individuals will always try to read the "gist" too early; and some, too late. So there will always be an element of unpredictability.
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

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Alan Masterman wrote: January 13th, 2022, 1:39 pm I think the word "gist" is significant. We tend to react as soon as we think we have the "gist" of the situation. This is understandable; evolutionary survival depends upon quick responses. Some of the time, we will misread the "gist" of the situation but, as long as we read it correctly more often than we read it incorrectly, the survival of the species is assured. Interpretation of the gist includes not only social interaction with other humans but also other natural forces: is this dog being friendly? Are these symptoms just a head cold?

Some individuals will always try to read the "gist" too early; and some, too late. So there will always be an element of unpredictability.
I agree. Quick responses are a key component in survival. Some will determine whether you live to see the following day or not. But I think this is much easy and reliable in animals. Let's take a dog. If it is friendly, then it will show friendly gestures, and if it is not so, then it will show you the opposite. But having a complex and a more advanced brain, humans possess the ability to decieve. So they can show a friendly face when they are actually going to harm you.
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 11th, 2022, 5:01 pm
Sushan wrote: January 10th, 2022, 1:48 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 7th, 2022, 2:34 am
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt


(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
What sort of groups are we referring to here? And what sort of predictions? Usually groups act according to their leader, and so will be their decision making. Then ultimately it all will depend on a single person, and predicting the thought procedure of an individual. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Not what I meant. I can say that 17% of people will choose chocolate ice cream and 13% will choose vanilla. But if a person walks up to my counter I can only correctly predict his choice 17% of the time at the most.
You are correct. Even these sort of conclusions are made after observing thousands of people. Yet, no one has been able so far to create a method to correctly predict the person who we will meet next. This will be harder when it comes to human emotions.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

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Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

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thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am
thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
"As usual... it depends."
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 27th, 2022, 1:47 am
Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am
thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]


(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
I am sorry, but I did not get you fully. Are you saying that AI can only learn to go for predictions based only on known percentages, so it may not be 100% accurate, like a true prediction made by actually knowing what a person might do next?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 27th, 2022, 2:31 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 27th, 2022, 1:47 am
Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am
thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm

I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
I am sorry, but I did not get you fully. Are you saying that AI can only learn to go for predictions based only on known percentages, so it may not be 100% accurate, like a true prediction made by actually knowing what a person might do next?
I am not drawing a distinction between accuracy, I am differentiating between process.
"As usual... it depends."
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Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 28th, 2022, 4:05 am
Sushan wrote: January 27th, 2022, 2:31 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 27th, 2022, 1:47 am
Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am

Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
I am sorry, but I did not get you fully. Are you saying that AI can only learn to go for predictions based only on known percentages, so it may not be 100% accurate, like a true prediction made by actually knowing what a person might do next?
I am not drawing a distinction between accuracy, I am differentiating between process.
But I think even the process is somewhat similar. An AI is taught by humans to make guesses as per human knowledge. So the calculations and percentages that are taken into consideration are similar. AI may be fast in calculations, and human thought process may not actually go in calculation wise, though ultimately what have been applied are calculations. The difference will be the use of emotions in human thought process, which has nothing to do in AI thought process.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
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