Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Use this forum to discuss the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
Pattern-chaser
Premium Member
Posts: 8232
Joined: September 22nd, 2019, 5:17 am
Favorite Philosopher: Cratylus
Location: England

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Pattern-chaser »

Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
In part: I accept that all humans are unique - although we also share many things - but I believe that humans DO think and work in patterns. Not that we can only think in patterns, or by using patterns, of course.
Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"
User avatar
LuckyR
Moderator
Posts: 7914
Joined: January 18th, 2015, 1:16 am

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
"As usual... it depends."
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

Pattern-chaser wrote: January 6th, 2022, 2:02 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
In part: I accept that all humans are unique - although we also share many things - but I believe that humans DO think and work in patterns. Not that we can only think in patterns, or by using patterns, of course.
When similar situations are taken into consideration, and when we look at how different people have reacted, we may be able to see some sort of a pattern. But I am sure there will be differences than similarities in those reactions as well as outcomes. If there really were patterns, how come the sociologists and people who study humans so far have not come up with a guide explaining how to act in various situations?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 7th, 2022, 2:34 am
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
What sort of groups are we referring to here? And what sort of predictions? Usually groups act according to their leader, and so will be their decision making. Then ultimately it all will depend on a single person, and predicting the thought procedure of an individual. Please correct me if I am wrong.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
LuckyR
Moderator
Posts: 7914
Joined: January 18th, 2015, 1:16 am

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 10th, 2022, 1:48 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 7th, 2022, 2:34 am
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
What sort of groups are we referring to here? And what sort of predictions? Usually groups act according to their leader, and so will be their decision making. Then ultimately it all will depend on a single person, and predicting the thought procedure of an individual. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Not what I meant. I can say that 17% of people will choose chocolate ice cream and 13% will choose vanilla. But if a person walks up to my counter I can only correctly predict his choice 17% of the time at the most.
"As usual... it depends."
Alan Masterman
Posts: 217
Joined: March 27th, 2011, 8:03 am

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Alan Masterman »

I think the word "gist" is significant. We tend to react as soon as we think we have the "gist" of the situation. This is understandable; evolutionary survival depends upon quick responses. Some of the time, we will misread the "gist" of the situation but, as long as we read it correctly more often than we read it incorrectly, the survival of the species is assured. Interpretation of the gist includes not only social interaction with other humans but also other natural forces: is this dog being friendly? Are these symptoms just a head cold?

Some individuals will always try to read the "gist" too early; and some, too late. So there will always be an element of unpredictability.
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

Alan Masterman wrote: January 13th, 2022, 1:39 pm I think the word "gist" is significant. We tend to react as soon as we think we have the "gist" of the situation. This is understandable; evolutionary survival depends upon quick responses. Some of the time, we will misread the "gist" of the situation but, as long as we read it correctly more often than we read it incorrectly, the survival of the species is assured. Interpretation of the gist includes not only social interaction with other humans but also other natural forces: is this dog being friendly? Are these symptoms just a head cold?

Some individuals will always try to read the "gist" too early; and some, too late. So there will always be an element of unpredictability.
I agree. Quick responses are a key component in survival. Some will determine whether you live to see the following day or not. But I think this is much easy and reliable in animals. Let's take a dog. If it is friendly, then it will show friendly gestures, and if it is not so, then it will show you the opposite. But having a complex and a more advanced brain, humans possess the ability to decieve. So they can show a friendly face when they are actually going to harm you.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 11th, 2022, 5:01 pm
Sushan wrote: January 10th, 2022, 1:48 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 7th, 2022, 2:34 am
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt


(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
Excellent question. The thing with human decision making is that it is completely predictable... for groups, yet will likely alway defy predictability for individuals.

Thus the answer to the specific question you ask is: no.
What sort of groups are we referring to here? And what sort of predictions? Usually groups act according to their leader, and so will be their decision making. Then ultimately it all will depend on a single person, and predicting the thought procedure of an individual. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Not what I meant. I can say that 17% of people will choose chocolate ice cream and 13% will choose vanilla. But if a person walks up to my counter I can only correctly predict his choice 17% of the time at the most.
You are correct. Even these sort of conclusions are made after observing thousands of people. Yet, no one has been able so far to create a method to correctly predict the person who we will meet next. This will be harder when it comes to human emotions.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
thegoldbering
New Trial Member
Posts: 3
Joined: December 13th, 2021, 4:11 pm

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by thegoldbering »

Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
LuckyR
Moderator
Posts: 7914
Joined: January 18th, 2015, 1:16 am

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am
thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]

Neuroscientists observe that after thousands of human interactions, a maturing brain becomes adept at a sort of pattern recognition. With just a few clues, interactions, or data points, we are, as we age, able to get what scientists call the “gist” of people or situations to predict outcomes more reliably.
(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
"As usual... it depends."
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 27th, 2022, 1:47 am
Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am
thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm
Sushan wrote: January 6th, 2022, 6:58 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month,Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt[/url]


(Location 155 of Kindle version)

Although the author says so, even after interacting with thousands of people, will we be able to predict the actions of the next person that we will meet? I believe that humans are unique, and do not think or work in patterns, do you agree with me?
I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
I am sorry, but I did not get you fully. Are you saying that AI can only learn to go for predictions based only on known percentages, so it may not be 100% accurate, like a true prediction made by actually knowing what a person might do next?
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
User avatar
LuckyR
Moderator
Posts: 7914
Joined: January 18th, 2015, 1:16 am

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by LuckyR »

Sushan wrote: January 27th, 2022, 2:31 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 27th, 2022, 1:47 am
Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am
thegoldbering wrote: January 25th, 2022, 6:04 pm

I strongly believe so.... AI..... not now..... maybe not in our life time but if technology keeps exponentially growing yeah, eventually it will be achieved........... I know, sounds scary so I really hope it doesn't happen in my time :shock: :D
Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
I am sorry, but I did not get you fully. Are you saying that AI can only learn to go for predictions based only on known percentages, so it may not be 100% accurate, like a true prediction made by actually knowing what a person might do next?
I am not drawing a distinction between accuracy, I am differentiating between process.
"As usual... it depends."
User avatar
Sushan
Book of the Month Discussion Leader
Posts: 2205
Joined: February 19th, 2021, 8:12 pm
Contact:

Re: Will anyone ever be able to predict humans?

Post by Sushan »

LuckyR wrote: January 28th, 2022, 4:05 am
Sushan wrote: January 27th, 2022, 2:31 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 27th, 2022, 1:47 am
Sushan wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:13 am

Even today AI has developed to an unbelievable extent. AI are self learning, which is called as neural learning, and they are called as neural engines, giving a similar level as our brains. But they are human products as well. Although they are given the ability to learn by themselves, will humans be able to give them talents which humans do not possess, like predicting other humans?
There is a big difference between knowing percentages and using them to make educated guesses that are correct more than random chance, on one hand and true prediction (truly knowing what someone is going to do before they do it) on the other.
I am sorry, but I did not get you fully. Are you saying that AI can only learn to go for predictions based only on known percentages, so it may not be 100% accurate, like a true prediction made by actually knowing what a person might do next?
I am not drawing a distinction between accuracy, I am differentiating between process.
But I think even the process is somewhat similar. An AI is taught by humans to make guesses as per human knowledge. So the calculations and percentages that are taken into consideration are similar. AI may be fast in calculations, and human thought process may not actually go in calculation wise, though ultimately what have been applied are calculations. The difference will be the use of emotions in human thought process, which has nothing to do in AI thought process.
“There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers”

– William James
Post Reply

Return to “Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt”

2023/2024 Philosophy Books of the Month

Entanglement - Quantum and Otherwise

Entanglement - Quantum and Otherwise
by John K Danenbarger
January 2023

Mark Victor Hansen, Relentless: Wisdom Behind the Incomparable Chicken Soup for the Soul

Mark Victor Hansen, Relentless: Wisdom Behind the Incomparable Chicken Soup for the Soul
by Mitzi Perdue
February 2023

Rediscovering the Wisdom of Human Nature: How Civilization Destroys Happiness

Rediscovering the Wisdom of Human Nature: How Civilization Destroys Happiness
by Chet Shupe
March 2023

The Unfakeable Code®

The Unfakeable Code®
by Tony Jeton Selimi
April 2023

The Book: On the Taboo Against Knowing Who You Are

The Book: On the Taboo Against Knowing Who You Are
by Alan Watts
May 2023

Killing Abel

Killing Abel
by Michael Tieman
June 2023

Reconfigurement: Reconfiguring Your Life at Any Stage and Planning Ahead

Reconfigurement: Reconfiguring Your Life at Any Stage and Planning Ahead
by E. Alan Fleischauer
July 2023

First Survivor: The Impossible Childhood Cancer Breakthrough

First Survivor: The Impossible Childhood Cancer Breakthrough
by Mark Unger
August 2023

Predictably Irrational

Predictably Irrational
by Dan Ariely
September 2023

Artwords

Artwords
by Beatriz M. Robles
November 2023

Fireproof Happiness: Extinguishing Anxiety & Igniting Hope

Fireproof Happiness: Extinguishing Anxiety & Igniting Hope
by Dr. Randy Ross
December 2023

Beyond the Golden Door: Seeing the American Dream Through an Immigrant's Eyes

Beyond the Golden Door: Seeing the American Dream Through an Immigrant's Eyes
by Ali Master
February 2024

2022 Philosophy Books of the Month

Emotional Intelligence At Work

Emotional Intelligence At Work
by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt
January 2022

Free Will, Do You Have It?

Free Will, Do You Have It?
by Albertus Kral
February 2022

My Enemy in Vietnam

My Enemy in Vietnam
by Billy Springer
March 2022

2X2 on the Ark

2X2 on the Ark
by Mary J Giuffra, PhD
April 2022

The Maestro Monologue

The Maestro Monologue
by Rob White
May 2022

What Makes America Great

What Makes America Great
by Bob Dowell
June 2022

The Truth Is Beyond Belief!

The Truth Is Beyond Belief!
by Jerry Durr
July 2022

Living in Color

Living in Color
by Mike Murphy
August 2022 (tentative)

The Not So Great American Novel

The Not So Great American Novel
by James E Doucette
September 2022

Mary Jane Whiteley Coggeshall, Hicksite Quaker, Iowa/National Suffragette And Her Speeches

Mary Jane Whiteley Coggeshall, Hicksite Quaker, Iowa/National Suffragette And Her Speeches
by John N. (Jake) Ferris
October 2022

In It Together: The Beautiful Struggle Uniting Us All

In It Together: The Beautiful Struggle Uniting Us All
by Eckhart Aurelius Hughes
November 2022

The Smartest Person in the Room: The Root Cause and New Solution for Cybersecurity

The Smartest Person in the Room
by Christian Espinosa
December 2022

2021 Philosophy Books of the Month

The Biblical Clock: The Untold Secrets Linking the Universe and Humanity with God's Plan

The Biblical Clock
by Daniel Friedmann
March 2021

Wilderness Cry: A Scientific and Philosophical Approach to Understanding God and the Universe

Wilderness Cry
by Dr. Hilary L Hunt M.D.
April 2021

Fear Not, Dream Big, & Execute: Tools To Spark Your Dream And Ignite Your Follow-Through

Fear Not, Dream Big, & Execute
by Jeff Meyer
May 2021

Surviving the Business of Healthcare: Knowledge is Power

Surviving the Business of Healthcare
by Barbara Galutia Regis M.S. PA-C
June 2021

Winning the War on Cancer: The Epic Journey Towards a Natural Cure

Winning the War on Cancer
by Sylvie Beljanski
July 2021

Defining Moments of a Free Man from a Black Stream

Defining Moments of a Free Man from a Black Stream
by Dr Frank L Douglas
August 2021

If Life Stinks, Get Your Head Outta Your Buts

If Life Stinks, Get Your Head Outta Your Buts
by Mark L. Wdowiak
September 2021

The Preppers Medical Handbook

The Preppers Medical Handbook
by Dr. William W Forgey M.D.
October 2021

Natural Relief for Anxiety and Stress: A Practical Guide

Natural Relief for Anxiety and Stress
by Dr. Gustavo Kinrys, MD
November 2021

Dream For Peace: An Ambassador Memoir

Dream For Peace
by Dr. Ghoulem Berrah
December 2021