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Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 16th, 2022, 10:52 am
by Sculptor1
mystery wrote: January 16th, 2022, 7:40 am a gut feeling about intent is likely on target. a gut feeling about some action, not as reliable because the other person has also to process and decide.

a gut feeling together with some circumstantial evidence is usually reliable.
--

on the elevator example, you feel threatened by the presence of the other person according to your gut and you also notice they have blood on the shoes.
A person with blood on their shoes is most probably more likely statistically to have been assisting at the scene of a road traffic accident than being an initiator of violence. You have just given an example of confirmatory prejudice.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 17th, 2022, 4:33 am
by LuckyR
Sculptor1 wrote: January 14th, 2022, 3:50 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 14th, 2022, 1:38 pm
Sculptor1 wrote: January 9th, 2022, 7:58 am
LuckyR wrote: January 9th, 2022, 3:48 am
Actually you can tell a book by it's cover, it's just that you can only do it large minority of the time. This is wholly inadequate if you are in charge of hiring, it is completely reasonable if it makes you get off an elevator when you're a woman alone and you get that freeling when someone gets on.
I think my point is that there are areas of human endeavour where experience and study enhances the gut feeling. But no amount of judging other people from their look can guarentee or even improve your prejudice about other people.
We just had a young couple move next door. They are both covered from head to toe in tattoos. THe guy is about 6'2" and about 4' wide with a beard and his wife has a multicoloured hairdo. The whole neighbourhood is in shock. But as each person, significantly dog owners (they couple has two), meets them they are all shocked by how nice this couple is. My view is that most neighbours will never approach them at all. Whatever they might find, their experience of them good or bad will not inform them the next time they encounter another inked up couple.
True, yet off topic. Prejudice is not the same as gut feeling. Gut feelings are conclusions without a known logical basis behind them. If I don't trust folks with tattoos because they have a reputation in my group for being antisocial or I personally had a negative interaction with a tatted up guy, that's a prejudice. A gut feeling would be an otherwise "normal" appearing guy who gives you the creeps. What is happening is your subconscious mind has detected a series of cues beyond your conscious mind's current notice (perhaps due to distraction).
No, this is perfectly on topic. Prejudice is exactly a gut feeling.
Prejudice can be conscious and unconscious.
We are not in agreement on the relative meanings of prejudice and gut feeling.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 17th, 2022, 7:40 am
by Sculptor1
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 4:33 am
Sculptor1 wrote: January 14th, 2022, 3:50 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 14th, 2022, 1:38 pm
Sculptor1 wrote: January 9th, 2022, 7:58 am

I think my point is that there are areas of human endeavour where experience and study enhances the gut feeling. But no amount of judging other people from their look can guarentee or even improve your prejudice about other people.
We just had a young couple move next door. They are both covered from head to toe in tattoos. THe guy is about 6'2" and about 4' wide with a beard and his wife has a multicoloured hairdo. The whole neighbourhood is in shock. But as each person, significantly dog owners (they couple has two), meets them they are all shocked by how nice this couple is. My view is that most neighbours will never approach them at all. Whatever they might find, their experience of them good or bad will not inform them the next time they encounter another inked up couple.
True, yet off topic. Prejudice is not the same as gut feeling. Gut feelings are conclusions without a known logical basis behind them. If I don't trust folks with tattoos because they have a reputation in my group for being antisocial or I personally had a negative interaction with a tatted up guy, that's a prejudice. A gut feeling would be an otherwise "normal" appearing guy who gives you the creeps. What is happening is your subconscious mind has detected a series of cues beyond your conscious mind's current notice (perhaps due to distraction).
No, this is perfectly on topic. Prejudice is exactly a gut feeling.
Prejudice can be conscious and unconscious.
We are not in agreement on the relative meanings of prejudice and gut feeling.
I do not think many racist bigots are in the happy of intellectualising their hatred, so gut feeling it is.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 17th, 2022, 11:15 am
by anonymous66
Terrapin Station wrote: January 9th, 2022, 8:20 am My gut feeling tells me that no, it can't be taken to be reliable.
The author has this to say (page 129 in the book), "Trust them. But understand that your gut feelings are not always reliable. Think of them more as an early-warning system, alerting you to dig deeper to confirm or allay concerns and piece together a more accurate picture."

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 17th, 2022, 1:43 pm
by LuckyR
Sculptor1 wrote: January 17th, 2022, 7:40 am
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 4:33 am
Sculptor1 wrote: January 14th, 2022, 3:50 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 14th, 2022, 1:38 pm

True, yet off topic. Prejudice is not the same as gut feeling. Gut feelings are conclusions without a known logical basis behind them. If I don't trust folks with tattoos because they have a reputation in my group for being antisocial or I personally had a negative interaction with a tatted up guy, that's a prejudice. A gut feeling would be an otherwise "normal" appearing guy who gives you the creeps. What is happening is your subconscious mind has detected a series of cues beyond your conscious mind's current notice (perhaps due to distraction).
No, this is perfectly on topic. Prejudice is exactly a gut feeling.
Prejudice can be conscious and unconscious.
We are not in agreement on the relative meanings of prejudice and gut feeling.
I do not think many racist bigots are in the happy of intellectualising their hatred, so gut feeling it is.
To each their own, but most folks I know would not call a dislike of every single member of a racial group (conscious or unconscious) a gut feeling akin to the hairs on the back of your neck standing up when a particular overly talky, well groomed, somewhat pushy lone man asks to help you carry your groceries to the elevator.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 17th, 2022, 7:12 pm
by Sculptor1
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 1:43 pm
Sculptor1 wrote: January 17th, 2022, 7:40 am
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 4:33 am
Sculptor1 wrote: January 14th, 2022, 3:50 pm
No, this is perfectly on topic. Prejudice is exactly a gut feeling.
Prejudice can be conscious and unconscious.
We are not in agreement on the relative meanings of prejudice and gut feeling.
I do not think many racist bigots are in the happy of intellectualising their hatred, so gut feeling it is.
To each their own, but most folks I know would not call a dislike of every single member of a racial group (conscious or unconscious) a gut feeling akin to the hairs on the back of your neck standing up when a particular overly talky, well groomed, somewhat pushy lone man asks to help you carry your groceries to the elevator.
Not all racism is a gut feeling - some people write books promoting it. But for the most part the aversion to, say, black people, or muslims, is a viseral and emotional experience.
So what you have done here in this post is described two gut feelings.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 19th, 2022, 3:41 am
by LuckyR
Sculptor1 wrote: January 17th, 2022, 7:12 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 1:43 pm
Sculptor1 wrote: January 17th, 2022, 7:40 am
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 4:33 am

We are not in agreement on the relative meanings of prejudice and gut feeling.
I do not think many racist bigots are in the happy of intellectualising their hatred, so gut feeling it is.
To each their own, but most folks I know would not call a dislike of every single member of a racial group (conscious or unconscious) a gut feeling akin to the hairs on the back of your neck standing up when a particular overly talky, well groomed, somewhat pushy lone man asks to help you carry your groceries to the elevator.
Not all racism is a gut feeling - some people write books promoting it. But for the most part the aversion to, say, black people, or muslims, is a viseral and emotional experience.
So what you have done here in this post is described two gut feelings.
If emotional reactions are gut feelings to you and perhaps most others, then you are correct.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 19th, 2022, 8:24 am
by Sculptor1
LuckyR wrote: January 19th, 2022, 3:41 am
Sculptor1 wrote: January 17th, 2022, 7:12 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 17th, 2022, 1:43 pm
Sculptor1 wrote: January 17th, 2022, 7:40 am

I do not think many racist bigots are in the happy of intellectualising their hatred, so gut feeling it is.
To each their own, but most folks I know would not call a dislike of every single member of a racial group (conscious or unconscious) a gut feeling akin to the hairs on the back of your neck standing up when a particular overly talky, well groomed, somewhat pushy lone man asks to help you carry your groceries to the elevator.
Not all racism is a gut feeling - some people write books promoting it. But for the most part the aversion to, say, black people, or muslims, is a viseral and emotional experience.
So what you have done here in this post is described two gut feelings.
If emotional reactions are gut feelings to you and perhaps most others, then you are correct.
Well a gut feeling is obviously not rationalised.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 28th, 2022, 2:13 pm
by Sushan
LuckyR wrote: January 8th, 2022, 4:07 am
Sushan wrote: January 8th, 2022, 1:12 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

If instinct tells you to be suspicious, listen and proceed carefully until trust and credibility are earned.
(Location 288 of Kindle version)

People take various decisions and perform various actions, of which the reason behind is hard to understand. If you ask about that from them, many of them will say it was their 'gut feeling', or their instincts. I am pretty sure that many of us have felt such 'gut feelings' in various situations.

Is it a reliable aid to use in critical decision making? Or is it a way of surfacing our hidden fears, which will ultimately hinder us from taking risky but correct decisions?
Gut feeling is a label for unconscious pattern recognition. You draw a conclusion without consciously going through the logical thought process to come to the conclusion. More often than not the conclusion is correct. How can this be? Over a long time of observation we all detect patterns of perception then we observe the outcome when we see the pattern. Our subconscious mind associates the two. Later, like Pavlov's dogs, when we hear the bell we conclude food is on the way without consciously going through the steps to figure out why.

When the hairs on the back of your neck raise when a particular person gets on the elevator, get off immediately!
Somethings are 'carved' into our reflexes with experience. That is how we no more think about our day to day activities, but just perform them, sometimes even several things together. This can happen to our decision making as well. With the experience we will be very much accurate in making decisions. But unlike in usually performed actions our personalities can play a big role in decision making. One can be too afraid, when another one can be too reckless, and this quality can interfere with the sensation of gut feeling, making the decision biased, and ultimately either wrong or over protective.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 28th, 2022, 2:20 pm
by Sushan
Sculptor1 wrote: January 8th, 2022, 10:12 am Those with with learning and experience benefit far more from gut feelings than people who lack the experience and learning.

I would suggest that we use "gut feelings" from more frequently that you might think.
For example when you drive a car you can arrive at a destination having thought about the anything other than the act of driving. Your body via your experience does all the work for you without ever having made a conscious effort.
A painist does not have to think about the location of any keys on the board. An experienced pianist simply looks at the manuscript and his fingers know where to go.
I think a gut feeling - that solution that presents itself to you without a formal logical and reasonable process can be the right one just so long as you are experienced in the area of the decision.

However - and this is a big however. The gut feeling you get when you think a person is guilty of something, can be the most misdirected and dangerously wrong feeling.
Having gut feelings about a person on first meeting - taking an instant dislike to a person because of their appearance is never to be trusted. For it matters not a jot how many other people you have met that look like this one, you simply cannot tell a book by its cover.
I agree. Unlike our reflexes, gut feelings are affected by our mood, personality traits, etc. We tend to dislike people for no reason. We are afraid to accept easy gains because our gut says "this might bring trouble". So it is okay to respect the gut feelings, but it is better to keep in mind that it is not the only thing that we can use in decision making. I think it is good to apply rational thinking, and if inexperienced going to an expert for further opinions, rather than turning away from a decision just because your gut says so.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 28th, 2022, 6:22 pm
by Good_Egg
The proposition that you can always tell if someone is lying and the proposition that you can never tell if somebody is lying seem to be both evidently false. So the right answer can only be "sometimes".

That's only one area in which "gut feeling" operates. But I suspect the answer applies to other areas equally.

And something that only works sometimes is generally not considered reliable.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 29th, 2022, 3:23 am
by LuckyR
Sushan wrote: January 28th, 2022, 2:13 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 8th, 2022, 4:07 am
Sushan wrote: January 8th, 2022, 1:12 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt

If instinct tells you to be suspicious, listen and proceed carefully until trust and credibility are earned.
(Location 288 of Kindle version)

People take various decisions and perform various actions, of which the reason behind is hard to understand. If you ask about that from them, many of them will say it was their 'gut feeling', or their instincts. I am pretty sure that many of us have felt such 'gut feelings' in various situations.

Is it a reliable aid to use in critical decision making? Or is it a way of surfacing our hidden fears, which will ultimately hinder us from taking risky but correct decisions?
Gut feeling is a label for unconscious pattern recognition. You draw a conclusion without consciously going through the logical thought process to come to the conclusion. More often than not the conclusion is correct. How can this be? Over a long time of observation we all detect patterns of perception then we observe the outcome when we see the pattern. Our subconscious mind associates the two. Later, like Pavlov's dogs, when we hear the bell we conclude food is on the way without consciously going through the steps to figure out why.

When the hairs on the back of your neck raise when a particular person gets on the elevator, get off immediately!
Somethings are 'carved' into our reflexes with experience. That is how we no more think about our day to day activities, but just perform them, sometimes even several things together. This can happen to our decision making as well. With the experience we will be very much accurate in making decisions. But unlike in usually performed actions our personalities can play a big role in decision making. One can be too afraid, when another one can be too reckless, and this quality can interfere with the sensation of gut feeling, making the decision biased, and ultimately either wrong or over protective.
The problem with gut reactions isn't following them and their being inaccurate. The problem is consciously overriding one's subconscious concern. We say to ourselves, "don't be scared of that scruffy looking guy because you'll be discriminating based on social class", when you should be looking out for the scruffy looking dude. That's not to say trust guys in suits, it is: pay attention to your subconscious concerns regardless towards whom it is directed.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 30th, 2022, 3:06 am
by Sushan
Good_Egg wrote: January 28th, 2022, 6:22 pm The proposition that you can always tell if someone is lying and the proposition that you can never tell if somebody is lying seem to be both evidently false. So the right answer can only be "sometimes".

That's only one area in which "gut feeling" operates. But I suspect the answer applies to other areas equally.

And something that only works sometimes is generally not considered reliable.
That is a reasonable way to look at the question. But then 'gut feeling' becomes unreliable, and a factor that should be neglected when making decisions. But is it good to totally override our gut feelings and do the opposite?

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 30th, 2022, 3:11 am
by Sushan
LuckyR wrote: January 29th, 2022, 3:23 am
Sushan wrote: January 28th, 2022, 2:13 pm
LuckyR wrote: January 8th, 2022, 4:07 am
Sushan wrote: January 8th, 2022, 1:12 am This topic is about the January 2022 Philosophy Book of the Month, Emotional Intelligence At Work: A Personal Operating System for Career Success by Richard M Contino & Penelope J Holt


(Location 288 of Kindle version)

People take various decisions and perform various actions, of which the reason behind is hard to understand. If you ask about that from them, many of them will say it was their 'gut feeling', or their instincts. I am pretty sure that many of us have felt such 'gut feelings' in various situations.

Is it a reliable aid to use in critical decision making? Or is it a way of surfacing our hidden fears, which will ultimately hinder us from taking risky but correct decisions?
Gut feeling is a label for unconscious pattern recognition. You draw a conclusion without consciously going through the logical thought process to come to the conclusion. More often than not the conclusion is correct. How can this be? Over a long time of observation we all detect patterns of perception then we observe the outcome when we see the pattern. Our subconscious mind associates the two. Later, like Pavlov's dogs, when we hear the bell we conclude food is on the way without consciously going through the steps to figure out why.

When the hairs on the back of your neck raise when a particular person gets on the elevator, get off immediately!
Somethings are 'carved' into our reflexes with experience. That is how we no more think about our day to day activities, but just perform them, sometimes even several things together. This can happen to our decision making as well. With the experience we will be very much accurate in making decisions. But unlike in usually performed actions our personalities can play a big role in decision making. One can be too afraid, when another one can be too reckless, and this quality can interfere with the sensation of gut feeling, making the decision biased, and ultimately either wrong or over protective.
The problem with gut reactions isn't following them and their being inaccurate. The problem is consciously overriding one's subconscious concern. We say to ourselves, "don't be scared of that scruffy looking guy because you'll be discriminating based on social class", when you should be looking out for the scruffy looking dude. That's not to say trust guys in suits, it is: pay attention to your subconscious concerns regardless towards whom it is directed.
Your comment made me remember a season in the TV series, 'Dr. House'.

For those who does not know, House is an excellent physician with a gifted aability to diagnose rare conditions. But ultimately he looses his mental capacity due to his addiction to strong pain killers. Then he finds out his diagnoses, which are made with his gut feelings becoming continously wrong. So he decides to do the opposite to what his gut says, and save few lives.

Maybe this is only a TV series. But I think such sort of scenarios are more than zero in the real world as well.

Re: 'Gut Feeling', is it reliable?

Posted: January 30th, 2022, 5:31 am
by AgentSmith
Wikipedia wrote:Truthiness (definition): Truthiness is the belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on the intuition or perceptions of some individual or individuals, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.
It appears that truth has (apparently) nonlogical characteristics/qualities. Gut feelings (independent of logic) may be recognition of these characteristics/qualities of truth. An alternative (nonrational) route to truths presents itself.

One quality that truths have, according to many people, is beauty. Ignoring attempts to show that beauty has an underlying logic and the commonly held belief that beauty is superficial/shallow, our instincts may be able to connect to truths via beauty when present (vide infra)
It's too beautiful to be false/unreal/wrong.