Congratulations America - Result !

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Georgeanna
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Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Georgeanna » November 7th, 2018, 7:08 am

America’s political landscape has undergone a transformation, after a new crop of politicians - more diverse, more female and more progressive — helped Democrats seize control of the House of Representatives and place Donald Trump under unprecedented scrutiny.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 21276.html

But what does it mean ? In real terms ?

Steve3007
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Steve3007 » November 7th, 2018, 7:57 am

As far as I can gather by reading of the history of US midterms, I don't think that scrutiny is particularly unprecedented. I gather that this result was broadly as expected and that the incumbent president usually gets what Obama referred to, in his case, as a "shellacking" in these midterms.

Georgeanna
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Georgeanna » November 7th, 2018, 8:15 am

Steve3007 wrote:
November 7th, 2018, 7:57 am
As far as I can gather by reading of the history of US midterms, I don't think that scrutiny is particularly unprecedented. I gather that this result was broadly as expected and that the incumbent president usually gets what Obama referred to, in his case, as a "shellacking" in these midterms.

I rather enjoyed your original response in the Brett Kavanaugh thread.
Perhaps it would have been better if you had beat me to it with your suggested thread title: 'How about those midterm results eh ?
As such, I hope you don't mind if I repeat your words here :

Steve wrote:
How about those midterm results eh? A mixed bag, by the look of it. The Democrats take the House and the Republicans increase their majority in the Senate. I've briefly read some articles speculating that the Democrats will now proceed with the effort to impeach Trump, but I presume that's not really going to happen. Apart from anything else, as I understand it, that would need a 2/3 majority in favour on impeachment in the Senate. Since the Democrats are now worse off there than they were before, I would guess they're going to forget about that.

Georgeanna
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Georgeanna » November 7th, 2018, 8:31 am

Steve3007 wrote:
November 7th, 2018, 7:57 am
As far as I can gather by reading of the history of US midterms, I don't think that scrutiny is particularly unprecedented. I gather that this result was broadly as expected and that the incumbent president usually gets what Obama referred to, in his case, as a "shellacking" in these midterms.
I haven't read any history of US midterms but I am led to believe that history has been made.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 21161.html
History has been made after the US elected its first Muslim women to congress – Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

Ms Tlaib, a Palestinian-American, secured Michigan’s 13th congressional district in a race in which she was the sole major party candidate, having won the Democratic primary earlier this year.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota’s Fifth congressional district, Somali-American Ms Omar bagged the seat previously held by Keith Ellison, the nation’s first Muslim congressman. Both women are Democrats.

Ahead of the race, Ms Tlaib told CBS: “The first thing I think about when somebody says you’re going to be the first Muslim is celebrate this moment. We changed the course of history at a time we thought it was impossible. And that if you just believe, believe in the possibility of someone like me.”

Also, the unprecedented scrutiny mentioned is particularly relevant to Trump.
This election was about accountability. Donald Trump may not like hearing it but for the first time, his administration is going to be held accountable,” he said. “He’s going to learn that he’s not above the law.”

Steve3007
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Steve3007 » November 7th, 2018, 8:44 am

Yes, it's unprecedented so far in Trump's presidency. I'll give them that.


This guy called Greg Gianforte is a colourful character. He's on track to win election as a Republican to the House of Representatives for Montana with a pretty comfortable majority. He's the guy who physically assaulted a reporter, slamming him to the ground and repeatedly punching him, was arrested and charged for it, eventually was forced to admit it after originally denying it and then subsequently went back to denying it. He seems to be a bit of a hero to Trump and his "let's attack the press if they say something we don't like" crowd.

He's also, among other things, a Young Earth Creationist who has made large donations to a "creationist museum" in Montana.

Is Montana one of the states where they've legalised marijuana? Because whatever the electorate there are smoking, I want some!

Eduk
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Eduk » November 7th, 2018, 10:56 am

So, anyone know what the results actually mean? Trump says it was great. Anyone agree with him?
Unknown means unknown.

Steve3007
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Steve3007 » November 7th, 2018, 11:26 am

One of the things that I've found interesting is the colourful characters involved. Another one was the Republican candidate for a district of Illinois called Arthur Jones. He got about 26% of the vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_J._Jones

It's a surprise to learn that a lot of the subject matter in the movie "The Blue Brothers" (set in Illinois) appears to have been factual. In that movie, among the bad guys are a group called the "National Socialist White People's Party". When I first saw it I assumed it was a made-up spoof name. But it appears to be real, and Mr Jones was a member for 8 years.

Steve3007
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Steve3007 » November 9th, 2018, 7:00 am

It's interesting to read just how undemocratic the election of the US Senate is:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pl ... 7b94dac7ce

...due to the fact that every state gets two Senators regardless of its population. So one Wyoming voter's Senate vote has the power of over 60 California voter's Senate votes. In terms of actual individual votes, the Democrats should easily control the Senate.

It seems so undemocratic as to be almost like the UK's equivalent upper house - the House of Lords!

Could this ever change? Like any electoral system that tends to favour the incumbent (the group that has power over the electoral system) this seems unlikely.

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chewybrian
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by chewybrian » November 9th, 2018, 8:06 am

Steve3007 wrote:
November 9th, 2018, 7:00 am
It's interesting to read just how undemocratic the election of the US Senate is:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pl ... 7b94dac7ce

...due to the fact that every state gets two Senators regardless of its population. So one Wyoming voter's Senate vote has the power of over 60 California voter's Senate votes. In terms of actual individual votes, the Democrats should easily control the Senate.

It seems so undemocratic as to be almost like the UK's equivalent upper house - the House of Lords!

Could this ever change? Like any electoral system that tends to favour the incumbent (the group that has power over the electoral system) this seems unlikely.

I hope it never changes. It is a check on representatives of large populations in cities enacting laws that benefit the cities at the expense of rural areas. This is still relevant today. Rules that make sense in one might not work in the other, and the economic impact of such rules can be unfair to one side or the other. We had a civil war over such inequities, so you can say they are not trivial.

Steve3007
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Steve3007 » November 9th, 2018, 8:49 am

chewybrian wrote:I hope it never changes. It is a check on representatives of large populations in cities enacting laws that benefit the cities at the expense of rural areas...
Interesting. I suppose you could say, then, that it's a bit like giving the land itself a vote, as well as giving the individual people who live there a vote?

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LuckyR
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by LuckyR » November 9th, 2018, 1:29 pm

chewybrian wrote:
November 9th, 2018, 8:06 am
Steve3007 wrote:
November 9th, 2018, 7:00 am
It's interesting to read just how undemocratic the election of the US Senate is:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pl ... 7b94dac7ce

...due to the fact that every state gets two Senators regardless of its population. So one Wyoming voter's Senate vote has the power of over 60 California voter's Senate votes. In terms of actual individual votes, the Democrats should easily control the Senate.

It seems so undemocratic as to be almost like the UK's equivalent upper house - the House of Lords!

Could this ever change? Like any electoral system that tends to favour the incumbent (the group that has power over the electoral system) this seems unlikely.

I hope it never changes. It is a check on representatives of large populations in cities enacting laws that benefit the cities at the expense of rural areas. This is still relevant today. Rules that make sense in one might not work in the other, and the economic impact of such rules can be unfair to one side or the other. We had a civil war over such inequities, so you can say they are not trivial.
I don't disagree though one could argue that the fact that state boundaries happen to be drawn where they are is a form of historical gerrymandering.
"As usual... it depends."

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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Fooloso4 » November 13th, 2018, 1:04 pm

With his firing Sessions and legally questionable appointment of Whitaker Trump appears to be maneuvering to curtail the Mueller investigation and suppress the evidence. If the Republicans had retained control of the House Trump’s obstruction of justice might have been successful, but there are things that a democratically controlled House can do that they would not have been able to do as the minority.

Talk of impeachment is premature, but the investigation might provide evidential grounds that would never come to light if Trump has his way. But even if he is not impeached, the results could hurt not only Trump but the Republican party. Members would try to distance themselves from him, but for many it would be too late to wash off the taint.

Trump could be subpoenaed to testify but Mueller may have to answer to the acting attorney general Whitaker who has made clear his allegiance to Trump and his disdain for the investigation. Whether Trump will testify and the extent of the questions to which he would respond remain open questions. It is likely, however, that even if Trump were uncharacteristically honest he would not reveal much that Mueller does not already know. The concern within the administration is Trump perjuring himself.

The House does not answer to Whitaker or Trump and a democratically controlled House will not. They can subpoena for information Trump will attempt to suppress. Trump has already threatened to retaliate. He is ready to undermine the House in order to protect himself. The irony is that the Republicans still call themselves the party of Lincoln, but it was Lincoln who warned against a house divided.

Jklint
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Re: Congratulations America - Result !

Post by Jklint » November 13th, 2018, 7:11 pm

Trump, in effect, is impugning himself by threatening retaliation. If he were only half as pure as he proclaims to be, he wouldn't so desperately and perversely malign these investigations as a personal attack uncomfortable as they may be. Trump's reaction forces the conclusion that he's vehement to hide what may or could terminate his presidency. His immediate threats against the Dems the moment they regained the House enforces the conviction of guilt by threatening damage should they investigate more. Trump makes Nixon look like Lincoln.

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