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Should the UK leave the European Union?

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Steve3007
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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Steve3007 » May 26th, 2019, 9:51 am

Incidentally, this simple calculation that the biggest, strongest side (economically and militarily) wins does seem, as far as I can tell, to have worked in the particular case of the US versus Turkey, in which Trump declared, in characteristically straightforward style, that Turkey would either do as he says or face total economic destruction at the hands of his administration.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Steve3007 » May 27th, 2019, 5:07 am

OK, so the votes are in from the European elections. In the UK, it seems that the result simply confirms what we've known since 2016: that the UK electorate is split down the middle on the issue of Brexit. Of those who bother to vote at all, roughly half favour Brexit and half favour Remain. That number sometimes tips slightly one way or the other.

In this European election it happened to tip slightly in favour of Remain. About 35% voted for the unequivocally Brexit voting parties and only very slightly more voted for the unequivocally Remain voting parties: the mirror image of the referendum in 2016. This supports the polling evidence of the last few years.

So the new Prime Minister is going to have just as much fun as Theresa May did.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Sculptor1 » May 27th, 2019, 4:29 pm

It is amusing but sad to see that both the Tories and Labour are being punished for being too Remain, and too Leave.
Until this fiasco is over the fringe parties are going to do very well by promising everything and delivering nothing.
What is particularly sad is that the working class have been engineered to believe that all their ill are due to immigrants.
This is a trope that the media and the right wing parties (including the LibDems and Tories) have failed to challenge since it hurts Corbyn's growing Labour movement more than it hurts any other party.
The whirlwind that is going to be reaped now is the breakup of reason and sanity and the emergence of fascism.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Sculptor1 » May 27th, 2019, 4:31 pm

aveenire wrote:
May 21st, 2019, 10:07 pm
others can take precedence. In the UK, regional identifies can, in my experience, often take precedence. Especially for people from Yorkshire!
The Brexit party in Yorkshire and Humber polled more votes that Labour and LibDem combined.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Sculptor1 » May 27th, 2019, 4:35 pm

Steve3007 wrote:
May 27th, 2019, 5:07 am

In this European election it happened to tip slightly in favour of Remain.
I do not think so, given the poor turnout. If people thought remain was a possibility then they would have come out to vote.
People are pissed off with hearing the word Brexit and realize that the only way to end it is to get the hell out.
Image a world where we stayed in?

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Steve3007 » June 26th, 2019, 8:02 am

Sculptor1 wrote:The whirlwind that is going to be reaped now is the breakup of reason and sanity and the emergence of fascism.
I'm not sure about the accuracy of the parallels with the rise of Fascism, tempting as they are, but I certainly agree that whatever reason and sanity there was in British politics has gradually vanished over the last 3 years. I think the rise of Boris to Prime Minister will greatly accelerate this process.

The creation, in a relatively short space of term, of these new words "Brexiter" and "Remainer" to demonise our perceived enemies is particularly interesting. It's now become routine in Newspapers/sites like the Express and Telegraph to find "Remainer plots" under every stone. And this clearly works. People are taken in by it.

It was also interesting to see that in a recent YouGov poll a significant majority of people who are traditionally Conservative voters now see achieving Brexit at any cost as more important than almost anything else. If it means the complete destruction of the Conservative Party (or "The Conservative and Unionist Party" to give it its full name) it is apparently deemed by most members of that party to be worth it. If it means the breakup of the UK (the union), with both Northern Ireland and Scotland becoming independent, it is still deemed worth it, apparently.

The only price they're not willing to pay would be if it meant Corbyn became Prime Minister.

Interesting times. It should be a memorable Halloween.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Sculptor1 » June 26th, 2019, 5:52 pm

Steve3007 wrote:
June 26th, 2019, 8:02 am
Sculptor1 wrote:The whirlwind that is going to be reaped now is the breakup of reason and sanity and the emergence of fascism.
I'm not sure about the accuracy of the parallels with the rise of Fascism, tempting as they are, but I certainly agree that whatever reason and sanity there was in British politics has gradually vanished over the last 3 years. I think the rise of Boris to Prime Minister will greatly accelerate this process.

The creation, in a relatively short space of term, of these new words "Brexiter" and "Remainer" to demonise our perceived enemies is particularly interesting. It's now become routine in Newspapers/sites like the Express and Telegraph to find "Remainer plots" under every stone. And this clearly works. People are taken in by it.

It was also interesting to see that in a recent YouGov poll a significant majority of people who are traditionally Conservative voters now see achieving Brexit at any cost as more important than almost anything else. If it means the complete destruction of the Conservative Party (or "The Conservative and Unionist Party" to give it its full name) it is apparently deemed by most members of that party to be worth it. If it means the breakup of the UK (the union), with both Northern Ireland and Scotland becoming independent, it is still deemed worth it, apparently.

The only price they're not willing to pay would be if it meant Corbyn became Prime Minister.

Interesting times. It should be a memorable Halloween.
The wankers have borrowed more and the country is in more debt than it was 10 years ago. Yet for political expediency they show the lie of austerity and are promising spending 15bn of defence, 11bn for tax reduction, 10bn foe NO reductions, more for a reduction in corporate tax.
The poor shall not benefit from these cuts to tax. Things for them will continue to get worse
In that time we have the advent of food banks and more inequality. This is working poverty to degrees not seen since the 1930s. Meanwhile the number of billionaires has TRIPLED. Most of the UK's financial resources are held off-shore.

We are being screwed. The only thing that happened in the so-called financial crash was the degree to which the Tories can justify screwing the public more.
More tax evasion, more tax avoidance, more hidden cash. More extremes of wealth, more people going hungry.

The elephant in the room at the moment is the idea that changing the Tory leader is going to make any difference to the Brexit process. They simply do not have the arithmetic in Parliament, and electing Boris or (c)unt is not going to alter that.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Steve3007 » June 28th, 2019, 9:37 am

It's interesting to see that it now seems more and more likely that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will suspend ("prorogue") Parliament in order to force through a no-deal Brexit against the will of the majority of MPs. It's interesting because it's the most stark and direct example yet of the seemingly irreconcilable conflict between direct democracy (the referendum) and representative democracy (a Parliament of MPs who we have, in theory at least, elected in order that they might use their judgement, and not just robotically enact our fleeting whims, for the good of the country.)

It shows more and more that, whatever mistakes Prime Minister Theresa May made (and she made some whoppers, the biggest of which was calling an election in 2017), she did have an essentially impossible task. She had the task of simultaneously doing two mutually contradictory things both of which she was told she must do in the name of democracy.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Belindi » June 28th, 2019, 12:42 pm

Yes, but as Rory Stewart said Parliament is not a building it's an assembly and dissenters can and will assemble parliament .

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Steve3007 » June 29th, 2019, 5:05 am

Belindi wrote:Yes, but as Rory Stewart said Parliament is not a building it's an assembly and dissenters can and will assemble parliament .
Yes, he suggested that Parliament could assemble in the church across the road. If that happened it would be a fascinating development and a huge event in the history of our politics.

Of all the candidates for the Tory leadership Rory Stewart was always my favourite. He always seemed relatively sane and un-self-serving. I'm currently reading his book about his adventures trekking across Afghanistan. It's an interesting read. He seems like the kind of politician who uses his experiences and the lessons of history to actually think properly and seriously about the problems to be solved in geopolitics. The antithesis of Boris Johnson.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Belindi » June 29th, 2019, 7:50 am

Rory Stewart is the thinking man's Tory. But the Tory ethos is self serving . Maybe Rory Stewart will defect to Labour and tidy it up.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Rederic » June 29th, 2019, 8:20 am

I think Rory Stewart is probably the best the Tory party has. He has depth and character with a sharp mind. But his voting record in Parliament leaves a lot to be desired.
Religion is at its best when it makes us ask hard questions of ourselves.
It is at its worst when it deludes us into thinking we have all the answers for everybody else.
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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Sculptor1 » June 29th, 2019, 10:27 am

Rederic wrote:
June 29th, 2019, 8:20 am
I think Rory Stewart is probably the best the Tory party has. He has depth and character with a sharp mind. But his voting record in Parliament leaves a lot to be desired.
The best thing about him is that he was once in the Labour party, but sadly he has gone over to the dark side.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Steve3007 » July 9th, 2019, 9:30 am

Belindi wrote:Rory Stewart is the thinking man's Tory. But the Tory ethos is self serving . Maybe Rory Stewart will defect to Labour and tidy it up.
Right now it seems like people are defecting from all over the place, or just opting out. Brexit supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey seems to be one of the latest. Precipitated by Brexit, the structure of British party politics seems to be more in flux now than it has since the first Labour government, and the start of the dominance of the two party system of Labour and the Tories, nearly a hundred years ago. I suppose, one way or another, the whole Brexit fiasco will eventually end in some way at some point. I wonder if, when that happens, the new system in which everybody is forcibly defined as a Brexiter or a Remainer will collapse back to the old Right versus Left system. And I wonder if the United Kingdom will survive the process. If I were Scottish, as a result of Brexit, I'd be strongly in favour of Scottish independence now. That wasn't true a few years ago.

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Re: Should the UK leave the European Union?

Post by Mark1955 » July 15th, 2019, 3:03 am

Steve3007 wrote:
July 9th, 2019, 9:30 am
Precipitated by Brexit, the structure of British party politics seems to be more in flux now than it has since the first Labour government, and the start of the dominance of the two party system of Labour and the Tories, nearly a hundred years ago. I suppose, one way or another, the whole Brexit fiasco will eventually end in some way at some point. I wonder if, when that happens, the new system in which everybody is forcibly defined as a Brexiter or a Remainer will collapse back to the old Right versus Left system. And I wonder if the United Kingdom will survive the process. If I were Scottish, as a result of Brexit, I'd be strongly in favour of Scottish independence now. That wasn't true a few years ago.
I strongly suspect we will go back to Labour v Tory as before. If “it’s the economy stupid” then this is, and always will be, the basic division in politics; tax and spend more or not. The problem of 'the EU or not' is unique in that all parties that matter are divided on the issue.

Personally if leave means we also loose the whinging Scots then it’s a win/win in my book. Sadly we won’t be able to get rid of the bigoted thickies in NI so easily but it might make us less inclined to tolerate them; if they want to be in the union they accept the rules of the union, no special case laws for NI.
If you think you know the answer you probably don't understand the question.

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