Should the UK leave the European Union?

[Belindi]

With the high probability that the EU may "dismember" itself in the not too distant future, Brexit may simply be a precursor to that event. The success or failure of Brexit may be established on what the EU eventually does to itself, likely, as it seems at this time, a slow demise leading to dissolution. The gravitational pull of Germany is not enough to keep failing member countries in orbit. At this point no one knows except the consequences immediately applicable to the UK.

The presence of the UK in the European Union will be , God willing, a strong barrier against extreme right wing forces in Europe.

[Jklint]

With the high probability that the EU may "dismember" itself in the not too distant future, Brexit may simply be a precursor to that event. The success or failure of Brexit may be established on what the EU eventually does to itself, likely, as it seems at this time, a slow demise leading to dissolution. The gravitational pull of Germany is not enough to keep failing member countries in orbit. At this point no one knows except the consequences immediately applicable to the UK.

The presence of the UK in the European Union will be , God willing, a strong barrier against extreme right wing forces in Europe.

Right wing forces are just about everywhere. When there's too much change and too sudden without the ability to absorb these forces come into play and not just in Europe. I'd think of it as a normal reaction which isn't any worse than all the demented political correctness going on.

[Steve3007]

One of the major arguments of the Brexit campaign before the referendum in 2016 was that the UK has such great economic power that the EU would be forced to make a deal on the UK's terms. It was said that it would be "the easiest deal in history". So, presumably, any UK government, no matter how incompetent, could manage it. Now that it's turned out not to be the easiest deal in history and the UK government is an a state of absolute chaos and open internecine war over this issue, it's interesting to see who gets blamed for this. In my experience, we simply apportion blame according to our pre-existing beliefs. Brexiters generally blame the supposed intransigence of the EU negotiators. Remainers say "I told you so". Labour supporters blame an incompetent Tory government. Tory supporters point out that Labour is just as divided over this issue as they are. Liberal Democrats completely fail to capitalize on the fact that they were the only party who were consistently and unanimously pro-EU.

The current state of affairs, after two years of attempted negotiations, is essentially the same as it was two years ago. The only deal on offer appears to be unacceptable to both Remainers and Brexiters so it's looking like we will simply go over the cliff edge of Brexit, at the end of March, with no deal in place at all. With hindsight, the government might as well have got on with running the country for the last 2 years rather than being absolutely consumed with this issue.

So in 3 months from now we're finally going to find out what happens when all of the delicately arranged trade agreements that have been put in place over the last 40 years simply stop, with nothing to replace them. Perhaps it'll all somehow be fine. Perhaps all the contingency planning that is being put in place in case the just-in-time delivery systems that put food on our supermarket shelves grind to a halt is all just more "project fear". I guess we don't have long until we find out now.

It appears that we're only just starting to think in the required depth about just how smoothly and frictionlessly our trade with the rest of the EU currently operates. As consumers, I suspect that to the vast majority of us it is utterly transparent. The number of EU registered trucks that come and go through ports like Dover and Felixstowe, and the ease with which that movement can grind to a halt, only really hits home when it stops working.

[Mark1955]

Too many Scots I know only seem to be able to define being Scottish as anti-English/anti union.

I have lived in Scotland a lot and was born and brought up there and have never actually met

Too many Scots I know only seem to be able to define being Scottish as anti-English/anti union.

such anybody like that although I have heard about them as the sort of rowdies who write not very artistic graffiti on walls.

Most scots I know are living and working in England. That in itself makes them a specific sub population and perhaps focuses them more on us.

[Mark1955]

The presence of the UK in the European Union will be , God willing, a strong barrier against extreme right wing forces in Europe.

Or would allow us to be dominated by a right wing dictator if he took control of the mechanisms of European power.

[Mark1955]

What money do the Scots and Welsh owe the English?

Every year taxes collected in England are funnelled to the Celtic fringe. Government jobs are also created outside of England to help their unemployment problems and stop them all migrating into England. As an example my VAT is dealt with in Glasgow, despite the fact I live near Nottingham. In the event of independence this money would dry up and the jobs would have to be relocated, unless we classed it all as Foreign Aid. Sensible Celts are aware of this which is one of the reasons why the vote for independence in Scotland didn't succeed.

[Mark1955]

In my experience, we simply apportion blame according to our pre-existing beliefs.

That's politics.

So in 3 months from now we're finally going to find out what happens.

And regardless of what happens the various fractions will spin 'reality' to suit their views and that includes the press who will create 'news' if none exists. We got through two world wars and the 1918/19 'flu epidemic I'm sure we can cope with a few customs delays.

[Mark1955]

With the high probability that the EU may "dismember" itself in the not too distant future, Brexit may simply be a precursor to that event. The success or failure of Brexit may be established on what the EU eventually does to itself, likely, as it seems at this time, a slow demise leading to dissolution. The gravitational pull of Germany is not enough to keep failing member countries in orbit. At this point no one knows except the consequences immediately applicable to the UK.

Which is sadly why the EU has come up with it's 'take it or leave it, obey all our rules' treaty. They are very worried if we leave others will follow and the project will unravel.

[Steve3007]

We got through two world wars and the 1918/19 'flu epidemic I'm sure we can cope with a few customs delays.

I hope that it is nothing more than just a few customs delays, but I think it is more like permanent damge to our economic prosperity and ability to take strong collective action. But the full implications will take decades to play out. And, of course, the 1918/19 flu epidemic wasn't something that 35% of the population voted for.

[Steve3007]

Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion.

I wish all the Brexiters who claim that MPs are betraying the will of the people would pay more heed to the words of Edmund Burke.

Anyway, whatever happens, in the history of the two year farce called Brexit, the next 24 hours might be among the most interesting.

[Karpel Tunnel]

A lot of the reasons people were swayed to want Brexit, I don't agree with. However, smaller countries have less degrees of separation between leaders and citizens.

[Steve3007]

However, smaller countries have less degrees of separation between leaders and citizens.

True. But when it's 65 million people versus 300 million, the difference is meaningless. They're both simply unimaginably large numbers.

Anyway the vote result will be with us in about 10 minutes. As expected, no ammendments will get passed, although one will still be voted on.

The MPs are heading for the division lobbies now.

[Steve3007]

And it gets 24 votes. So the no's have it.

[Steve3007]

The eyes to the right 202, the nose to the left 432. So the nose have it.

It's an old joke but worth repeating: The results of these parliamentary votes do sound a bit like a description of a Picasso painting.

[Eduk]

Politics is maddening. I was just listening to radio 5, some Labour bloke is talking in an overly fake voice about 'May's rotten deal' and how Labour are 'credible negotiators'. All while giving zero detail. Is anyone really fooled?