Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

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Supine
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Supine » July 21st, 2018, 9:07 pm

Alias wrote:
July 17th, 2018, 6:02 pm
You say occurred, as if no human agency were involved and "under the watch" as if some expert were responsible.
Yes, that is right, the gutting of US manufacturing occurred decades ago, long before Trump became President. And yes... "experts" in the USA were responsible and guided the whole gutting of American manufacturing. It was done so that the *rate* of profit of shareholders could steadily increase.
These are quite misleading constructions. What actually happened? Nothing simple enough for Trump to understand or fix with a big scrawly signature on a piece of paper.
Cheap labour in the southern states and Mexico; cheap material coming in from China and Korea; deregulation; a couple of wide-spread economic slumps; automation; shifting markets; less demand for the product; poor competitive position. Here is one analysis you might find useful _https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research ... -rust-belt .
More profit could be made elsewhere, so the corporations and their investors took their money elsewhere. http://www.jiesworld.com/international_ ... _china.htm
No "experts" run that show; governments can do no more than levy taxes and raise impediments to the movement of capital - and not all that much of the latter anymore: all the big venture capitalists diversify globally.
Did you just provide a link to the US Central Bank? Anyone listening to the Federal Reserve (per religious faith) while simultaneously accusing Trump of being a con-artist loses credibility. The Fed--with its branches across the country, including the one in Minneapolis--is a con-artist organization with its QE injections (digital money created out of the thin air--not even printed money).

I'm not a Democrat or Republican. Other con organizations controlled by bankers and corporations that build weapons to sell to the US military and foreign countries and NGOs. If one is going to criticize Trump why not criticize the fact he like Obama--and it would be like this with Hillary too--are not going to reduce the United States massive Debt-to-GDP ratio.

Okay, I remember in a past economic course a professor reminded the class that a country's "National Income" is essentially equal to its GDP. So, going with that, lets consider as a thought experiment a countries National Income (= to its GDP) is analogous to a couple's combined annual income. In personal finance it would be considered financially irresponsible if a couple's debt exceeded their combined annual income. For example, if combined they brought in an income of $120,000 but their debt was $140,000.

QE by the Federal Reserve (the Central Bank of the USA) is not going to reduce the massive Debt-to-GDP ratio the USA finds itself in years after year (before Trump ever got elected). What QE will do is devalue the US dollar and act as a temporary heroin fix for the US economic system addicted to "cheap money." Neither Democrat nor Republican career politician is honest with voters, US citizens, and telling them this is unsustainable and an OD (overdose) will eventually result. Because that would make them unpopular among American voters. Two things keep the addicted American economic system going right now: debt and QE's (Quantitative Ease).

In terms of personal financial responsibility, assets that will generate a *constant flow of income,* are ideally what you use to finance your personal debt obligations (not taking out more loans, or magically creating money out of thin air). If we were to make that analogous to Government spending it would be the Government nationalizing an asset (say the oil industry), which would produce a constant flow of cash, and using that asset to fund its personal debt obligations to American citizens (entitlement programs: e.g., welfare to single mothers, universal health care, social security retirement payments). But Americans would call that socialism and the word "socialism" to Americans is equivalent to a curse in Voodoo. So, instead, Republicans want to fund non-stop wars with debt and QE, and Democrats want to fund expanded entitlements, bring in illegals and give them entitlements, all with debt and QE.

And together they claim Donald Trump alone has and will further hurt Americans. And they explain it with BS emotive arguments.

The current US Debt-to-GDP ratio according to Wikipedia last time I looked exceeds 100% of the US GDP (= to its National Income).

In contrast Wikipedia places Russia's Debt-to-GDP ratio at less than 18% of its GDP.

Russia has both universal health care and universal dental care. And they fund it--at least in part--with a nationalized asset: their oil or natural gas industry.

The main thing, of course, is that business changes all the time; every industry has boom and bust periods and a life cycle. Like cotton-gins and corset-making, like blacksmithy and and coal-mining, there comes a time when the industry has simply run its course. Every time an industry declines and is replaced by a more modern one, there is net loss of employment, because increased technology needs decreased manpower.
That was not why US manufacturing fled across the boarder.

The USA was in a trade war for years, we just didn't know it down here on the ground as the average Joe and Jane, and American politicians sold (like treason) the American workers in manufacturing out. Period. Now Donald Trump--irrespective if he will be successful or not--is hitting the field of battle like Vince Lombardi and rallying a "hit back" strategy on the playing field. The Fed and its QE can't do that--not sustainably with out eventually the US dollar bubble bursting and the American economic system overdosing.

Supine
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Supine » July 21st, 2018, 9:37 pm

Felix wrote:
July 17th, 2018, 8:59 pm
Trump is a graduate of the Wharton business school (alumni includes Elon Musk, Warren Buffet, and many top CEOs of the USA) which is one of the most selective business schools in the world.
Selective in the sense that you need connections and money to get in, scholastic ability is less important, as evidenced by the fact that Trump has declared corporate bankruptcy 6 times - he's aiming to make the U.S. economy #7.
Trump is rich which is an outcome, and an outcome that he is a champion at what he does, and no champion never fails. Champion ice skaters fail more than 6 times, statistically they fail, fall on their butts, several thousand times before perfecting their moves.

The 6 bankruptcy's are meaningless by the outcome he is rich. And he did not get rich the way Hillary, Obama, and Tony Blair did (bribery money and payoffs from oligarchs in the USA).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihCVPVw2cm0&t=834s
(The Washington Tyranny (3/7)- Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Herland Report TV (HTV))

Here is repetitive failure, in Democratic Party run LA, and the people are homeless--and worse sight of human despair (in concentration and scale) than I saw in Tijuana, Mexico in the early 1990s when I crossed the boarder into Tijuana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juMX31y329E&t=6s
(How did L.A.'s skid row get so rough?
CNN Published on Mar 3, 2015
)

Alias
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Alias » July 22nd, 2018, 12:19 am

The USA was in a trade war for years, we just didn't know it down here on the ground as the average Joe and Jane, and American politicians sold (like treason) the American workers in manufacturing out. Period. Now Donald Trump--irrespective if he will be successful or not--is hitting the field of battle like Vince Lombardi and rallying a "hit back" strategy on the playing field. The Fed and its QE can't do that--not sustainably with out eventually the US dollar bubble bursting and the American economic system overdosing.
I see. Good luck with the Donald strategy.

Steve3007
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Steve3007 » July 22nd, 2018, 4:07 am

Supine wrote:The Fed--with its branches across the country, including the one in Minneapolis--is a con-artist organization with its QE injections (digital money created out of the thin air--not even printed money).
In your view, what is the difference between "digital money created out of the thin air" and printed bank notes? Do you consider making a "hard copy" of the digitally stored money makes it more tangible? Less likely to disappear?
In personal finance it would be considered financially irresponsible if a couple's debt exceeded their combined annual income. For example, if combined they brought in an income of $120,000 but their debt was $140,000.
No it wouldn't. What's so special about the amount of money you earn in a year that your debt must not exceed that amount? Why not say 6 months? Or 2 years? No, it would be considered irresponsible if their annual outgoings, including the cost of servicing the debt, consistently exceeded their income. If my mortgage was only equal to one year's salary it would be very small!

Mr Micawber in Dickens' David Copperfield giving his recipe for happiness:
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen, nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

Alias
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Alias » July 22nd, 2018, 12:39 pm

And yet the personal and household debt-load is growing right along with the national, state and municipal debts.
Capitalism runs on money-lending (aka investment) and its survival depends on perpetual growth.
When the limits of growth are reached, the same thing happens to an economy that happens to a tree.
You just can't break laws or nature.

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Felix
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Felix » July 23rd, 2018, 5:22 am

Supine: Trump is rich which is an outcome, and an outcome that he is a champion at what he does
True, he is a champion at lying to and swindling people, I must suppose that you think the ends always justify the means.
The 6 bankruptcy's are meaningless by the outcome he is rich.
Certainly not meaningless to all of his business associates and the taxpayers who had to pay for his broken promises and unpaid debts.
"We do not see things as they are; we see things as we are." - Anaïs Nin

Alias
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Alias » July 23rd, 2018, 3:52 pm

So, um, six bankruptcies, 35,000 lawsuits, a fake university and a fake charitable trust are qualifications for the presidency, just as long as he ends up rich? The good news: Imagine how rich he will be when he's finished bankrupting the biggest-ever economy! He'll qualify for Emperor of the World. The bad news: Nobody else can match these qualifications, so there will never be another Donald Trump in the White House. Unless the office is made hereditary by then.
Those who can induce you to believe absurdities can induce you to commit atrocities. - Voltaire

Steve3007
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Steve3007 » July 23rd, 2018, 5:02 pm

And yet, and yet, and yet...

What if it turns out that global warming really is a hoax invented by the Chinese? It could be. What if it turns out that shooting from the hip without any real knowledge of anything really is the best way to make decisions about the economy of a country? What if it turns out that a narcissist, suitably controlled by the checks and balances of a society like the USA, really is the best way to run a country? What if it turn out that he isn't a very naughty boy, but is, in fact, the Messiah?

Wouldn't that be hilarious?

Definitely worth an Opera, at least. I'd bet dollars to donuts someone is writing something on that theme right now. Probably a movie script to be pitched to cynical cigar-chewing Hollywood moguls.

My mind keeps going back to the ruler living in a shack in a forgotten backwater of the Galaxy, with a cat called "The Lord", who just tells it as he sees it to the smart-suited visitors who come to him for pointers on how to run the Universe. The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy was written before Twitter was invented. And the ruler of the Universe in that book seemed more placid and benign and less shouty and shag-anything-that-moves-y. But still...

Alias
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Alias » July 23rd, 2018, 5:37 pm

The world be all burned down by the time that movie comes out.
Joke's on us atheists: no afterlife, no Netflix, no sequels.
Those who can induce you to believe absurdities can induce you to commit atrocities. - Voltaire

Steve3007
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Steve3007 » July 24th, 2018, 3:29 pm

It's interesting to see that president Erdogan of Turkey has had more success persuading his own central bank to refrain from raising interest rates. The Turkish Lira has dropped massively over the last few years. In many ways Erdogan is the president that Trump aspires to be. More so than Putin.

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Felix
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Felix » July 24th, 2018, 5:51 pm

It's interesting to see that president Erdogan of Turkey has had more success persuading his own central bank to refrain from raising interest rates
It's not persuasion, it's a direct order, he now has complete control over his government.
In many ways Erdogan is the president that Trump aspires to be.
Yes, when presidential term limits were abolished in China a few months ago, Trump quipped (I paraphrase, don't recall his exact words), "Isn't that something, why don't we do that too?"

Immediate damage control was needed for that comment, his White House spokesperson said, "that was a joke , he was only kidding!!"

I don't think he was joking.
"We do not see things as they are; we see things as we are." - Anaïs Nin

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Felix
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Felix » July 24th, 2018, 6:00 pm

I looked it up, Trump's exact words were: "I think it was great that he (Xi Jinping) was able to do that. Maybe we'll give that a shot someday" (and he was no doubt thinking, "before my first term ends").
"We do not see things as they are; we see things as we are." - Anaïs Nin

Steve3007
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Steve3007 » July 25th, 2018, 3:48 am

Neither a joke nor serious. Neither true nor false. It just serves a purpose, I think. The purpose is to regularly whip up those who are regarded as the mainstream liberal media into furious anger at his apparent dictatorial ambitions, to dull the senses with repetition and cause both them and him to be ignored and just be treated as background music.

Alias
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Alias » July 25th, 2018, 8:39 am

You give this big baby far too much credit. There is no purpose!
He says, and types, whatever strays into his head at the moment, whether he's reacting to something he sees (and wants; it's almost the same thing)
recalls a long-held grudge, or is repeating whatever he's most recently heard on a FUX editorial, or just going "nya, nya!" to another toddler on the playground. He's treating the world as his playground: no responsibility, no consequences, just showing off.
Those who can induce you to believe absurdities can induce you to commit atrocities. - Voltaire

Steve3007
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Re: Steel Imports. Why is it so difficult to answer political questions factually?

Post by Steve3007 » July 25th, 2018, 9:55 am

...He's treating the world as his playground: no responsibility, no consequences, just showing off.
Yes, ok. There certainly does seem to be a lot of evidence that what you've said could be true. But it would be funny if it turned out that an overgrown toddler treating the world as a plaything was actually no worse a way to run the world than any other. As far as I can tell, he hasn't actually broken the world yet. At least, no more than anyone else has. Although of course he still has plenty of time and there's plenty of time for the full damage to be done long after he's dead. Notably on such issues as climate change.

If it does turn out that the overgrown toddler school of national and international government and diplomacy was as good as any other, then I guess we could conclude that the US doesn't actually need a president. Or it doesn't matter if they have one or not. Or it doesn't matter what he does or doesn't do.

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