Misconceptions of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

[ernestm]

One of the consequences of 98% only reading the first sentence on anything is vast miscontruals of Putin's motives. Endless reams of total garbage about his 'evil soul' are now appearing when he has done nothing worse then Bush II invading Ukraine.

First off, Putin has no intention of bombing all the reservoirs and power plants to reduce the nation to a virtual stone age for over a decade, like the USA did to the Iraqis. He has no intention of making 6 million people die of typhoid etc due to lack of water and power, like the USA did to the Iraqis. But you will find a lot of people in the USA now loudly clamoring about Putin's evil, who only 17 years ago loudly clamored for the unjustified invasion of Iraq on totally trumped up false accusations.

For that reason, amongst many others in a long history of US hypocrisys, Putin's not really that after the Ukriaine. He's after uns. I can only admire his superb timing. He could have done this at any time for the last 30 years, but he saved it for this moment. Exactly when the USA hit its lowest unemployment in 50 years, highest information in 70 years, and absolutely zero wiggle room on fed interest rates, he hit the USA with a worldwide oil shortage. Also as Ukraine is a major breadbasket, he is pushing food prices up. And as a result of sanctions, US exports are going to suffer. But most people will be too busy gawking at the TV to realize he just started a major recession in the USA.

Putin has by this superb act of timing made it virtually impossible for Biden to beat one of the Trump family from putting the whole lot back in the White House in 2024. They will withdraw from the Paris Accord again to increase immediate profit. When the Arctic Ice entirely melts away starting a mere three years after his second term, 2035-2045, we now know it will not only affect ocean currents that currently reverse back to the Caribbean by Greenland, and back to Peru from Alaska, but will instead go around the top of Canada, killing all fish and causing the death or virtually everything on every single American coast. We now know it will also change all the jetstreams, making life entirely uninhabitable anywhere in the USA. Of course that won't be until about 2050, so it wont be Trump's fault.

Russia on the other hand is only nation in the world which really benefits from global warming. It has no major cities at sea level and lots of landlocked freezing land. Nothing could please it more than another Trump, and unlike democracies, Russia can afford to wait and take the long term view on its eventual world domination.

Hats off to Putin, guys. Really, what superb timing. Took me by surprise too. I really should have anticipated that. The sleeping bear always wins.

[LuckyR]

One of the consequences of 98% only reading the first sentence on anything is vast miscontruals of Putin's motives. Endless reams of total garbage about his 'evil soul' are now appearing when he has done nothing worse then Bush II invading Ukraine.

First off, Putin has no intention of bombing all the reservoirs and power plants to reduce the nation to a virtual stone age for over a decade, like the USA did to the Iraqis. He has no intention of making 6 million people die of typhoid etc due to lack of water and power, like the USA did to the Iraqis. But you will find a lot of people in the USA now loudly clamoring about Putin's evil, who only 17 years ago loudly clamored for the unjustified invasion of Iraq on totally trumped up false accusations.

For that reason, amongst many others in a long history of US hypocrisys, Putin's not really that after the Ukriaine. He's after uns. I can only admire his superb timing. He could have done this at any time for the last 30 years, but he saved it for this moment. Exactly when the USA hit its lowest unemployment in 50 years, highest information in 70 years, and absolutely zero wiggle room on fed interest rates, he hit the USA with a worldwide oil shortage. Also as Ukraine is a major breadbasket, he is pushing food prices up. And as a result of sanctions, US exports are going to suffer. But most people will be too busy gawking at the TV to realize he just started a major recession in the USA.

Putin has by this superb act of timing made it virtually impossible for Biden to beat one of the Trump family from putting the whole lot back in the White House in 2024. They will withdraw from the Paris Accord again to increase immediate profit. When the Arctic Ice entirely melts away starting a mere three years after his second term, 2035-2045, we now know it will not only affect ocean currents that currently reverse back to the Caribbean by Greenland, and back to Peru from Alaska, but will instead go around the top of Canada, killing all fish and causing the death or virtually everything on every single American coast. We now know it will also change all the jetstreams, making life entirely uninhabitable anywhere in the USA. Of course that won't be until about 2050, so it wont be Trump's fault.

Russia on the other hand is only nation in the world which really benefits from global warming. It has no major cities at sea level and lots of landlocked freezing land. Nothing could please it more than another Trump, and unlike democracies, Russia can afford to wait and take the long term view on its eventual world domination.

Hats off to Putin, guys. Really, what superb timing. Took me by surprise too. I really should have anticipated that. The sleeping bear always wins.

Well if he is going to hold onto Ukraine, he's going to need to develop a better technique than the Russian Afghanistan strategy. I'm not seeing it yet. You?

[ernestm]

Well if he is going to hold onto Ukraine, he's going to need to develop a better technique than the Russian Afghanistan strategy. I'm not seeing it yet. You?

I cant tell how long the resistance will continue. He could flatten the place any time he wants, but he's not in any rush. The slower he goes, the better a job he does. All the news and everything keeps saying all kinds of weird things about him that are meant to be bad, and not being in a rush is one of them.

[Ecurb]

Oh, the horror! This is the worst war of recent decades -- although only if we forget wars currently raging in Ethiopia with more soldiers on either side than the war in the Ukraine, or the current war in Syria, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people. Bush may have invaded Iraq, but he never had people stabbed with poison-tipped umprellas (that we know of). I suppose it's reasonable to be more horrified by a war in Europe - in part because the two huge world wars of the last century were European and in part because we (rightly or wrongly) think of Europe as a "first world" beacon of reasonable modernity.

[ernestm]

Oh, the horror! This is the worst war of recent decades -- although only if we forget wars currently raging in Ethiopia with more soldiers on either side than the war in the Ukraine, or the current war in Syria, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people. Bush may have invaded Iraq, but he never had people stabbed with poison-tipped umprellas (that we know of). I suppose it's reasonable to be more horrified by a war in Europe - in part because the two huge world wars of the last century were European and in part because we (rightly or wrongly) think of Europe as a "first world" beacon of reasonable modernity.

Does the war in Ethiopia have more than 200,000 soldiers on both sides? I never heard a statement of it before. If so, that's just appalling, you are totally right.

[LuckyR]

Well if he is going to hold onto Ukraine, he's going to need to develop a better technique than the Russian Afghanistan strategy. I'm not seeing it yet. You?

I cant tell how long the resistance will continue. He could flatten the place any time he wants, but he's not in any rush. The slower he goes, the better a job he does. All the news and everything keeps saying all kinds of weird things about him that are meant to be bad, and not being in a rush is one of them.

Okay, so he deploys thermobaric missiles and kills all of the resistance fighters in Kyiv. Puppet government installed. He needs to pay to rebuild Ukraine (with a GDP half of California's) and western capital shut-off, as well as petrochemical revenue. The Ukrainians, who previously tolerated Russia, now absolutely hate it (see Chechnya). A garrison of Russian conscripts are stationed in Ukraine, and are steadily, though slowly returning home in bodybags. The Ukrainian infrastructure is decimated, thus it's contribution to the Russian bloc GDP is almost negative (given the rebuilding required). China is keeping out of it. How is this a win again?

[chewybrian]

Oh, the horror!

The horror I see is the framing of the discussion in terms of tactics or personality or the effects on our own economy. It ranges from Lucky questioning the validity of Putin's game plan, to your questioning the seriousness of the event, to the news focusing on the relatively minor impact on our lives here in the states, to ernestm's pathetic bootlicking praise of the wisdom of what Putin is doing.

It makes me sad that the first response from most of us seems to be "how will this affect me?". Worse is the admiration shown by Trump and his bootlickers. Nothing that happened in Iraq or is happening in Africa justifies what is happening in Ukraine. The last thing we should be giving a bloodthirsty dictator is respect and legitimacy. We should be focused on saving the lives of the people of Ukraine, protecting their freedom, and helping to remove Putin from power from within Russia and from the outside by any reasonable means possible.

[Ecurb]

I'm not questioning the seriousness of the event, merely the nature of our reaction to it compared to other wars. I think the comparative intensity of our reaction is in part based on Cold War fears and enmity, in part on our (America's) close relationship to Europe, and in part on racism.

From what I've read, the Tigray Liberation Front commands 250,000 soldiers, the Ethiopian army about 150,000 and the Eritrean army (rumors are not confirmed that they have entered Ethiopia) 200,000.

I agree that Putin is scary; he leads a kleptocracy (that's one reason Trump admires him) and an autocracy. Of course he's not the only world leader to assassinate his enemies: Barak Obama personally signed off on hundreds of drone assassinations (which also killed hunreds of other people as collateral damage). Nonetheless, excusing behavior by saying, "Lot's of other people do it" is weak sauce.

[Atla]

Or maybe after 20 years of being unable to stop the advancement of NATO, Putin finally snapped.

[chewybrian]

I'm not questioning the seriousness of the event, merely the nature of our reaction to it compared to other wars. I think the comparative intensity of our reaction is in part based on Cold War fears and enmity, in part on our (America's) close relationship to Europe, and in part on racism.

From what I've read, the Tigray Liberation Front commands 250,000 soldiers, the Ethiopian army about 150,000 and the Eritrean army (rumors are not confirmed that they have entered Ethiopia) 200,000.

I agree that Putin is scary; he leads a kleptocracy (that's one reason Trump admires him) and an autocracy. Of course he's not the only world leader to assassinate his enemies: Barak Obama personally signed off on hundreds of drone assassinations (which also killed hunreds of other people as collateral damage). Nonetheless, excusing behavior by saying, "Lot's of other people do it" is weak sauce.

Let me know when Biden sends a secret agent to poison Mitch McConnel. Surely there is a big difference between trying to stop terrorists hiding in Afghanistan and taking out your political opponents by force rather than at the polls.

Otherwise, there is a lot of truth in what you said. I think the conflict in Africa poses no existential threat to us or our close allies (or our economic interests), so it doesn't register on the radar. But the other elements you mentioned surely play a part in our response or lack of it.

[Ecurb]

Let me know when Biden sends a secret agent to poison Mitch McConnel. Surely there is a big difference between trying to stop terrorists hiding in Afghanistan and taking out your political opponents by force rather than at the polls.

Obviously, there is a difference. But Obama's drone assassinations often took place in countries to which we were allied (like Pakistan). In addition, I doubt they were effective at preventing terrorism; instead, they probably motivated terrorists and aided their recruiting. Obama personally signed the death warrants.

By the way, unlike military drones, the assassin drones were generally operated by civilians. We also targeted children (admittedly, terrorist children, but under-age kids nonetheless). Here's a thread I started about it back in the day:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6578&p=88078&hilit=assassin#p88078

Also, I don't want to excuse Putin by suggesting that others are "almost as bad". The reality is that I object to BOTH Putin's and our assassination campaigns.

[LuckyR]

I'm not questioning the seriousness of the event, merely the nature of our reaction to it compared to other wars. I think the comparative intensity of our reaction is in part based on Cold War fears and enmity, in part on our (America's) close relationship to Europe, and in part on racism.

From what I've read, the Tigray Liberation Front commands 250,000 soldiers, the Ethiopian army about 150,000 and the Eritrean army (rumors are not confirmed that they have entered Ethiopia) 200,000.

I agree that Putin is scary; he leads a kleptocracy (that's one reason Trump admires him) and an autocracy. Of course he's not the only world leader to assassinate his enemies: Barak Obama personally signed off on hundreds of drone assassinations (which also killed hunreds of other people as collateral damage). Nonetheless, excusing behavior by saying, "Lot's of other people do it" is weak sauce.

Oh I don't know, my observation is that the response is typical for a European ground war.

[Ecurb]

Oh I don't know, my observation is that the response is typical for a European ground war.

IN the last 50 years the main European ground wars were in the former Yugoslavia. I don't remember this much of an American media response (although, of course, we did end up bombing Serbia).

Another observation: Trump and his supporters see Russia as the last "truly European" country. OUr allies in Western Europe have all become multi-racial and multi-cultural nations. Racisim fuels Trumpite's respect for Putin and Russia.

Also, the media response is justified in that Russia is a world power and a threat. We didn't really need to fear Serbia, Croatia, or Bosnia. They weren't capable of threatening the major Western powers. Is Russia? They lack the economic power these days, but their military still packs a punch.

[Tegularius]

Probably I'm missing something, but why wasn't Putin's assertion not tested by NATO in yielding to his demand that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO for as long as he holds to his promise that no invasion will take place as per his original conditions. If Putin reneges on that, Ukraine will automatically become a member, being obvious he wishes to invade without being compromised by NATO and its allies.

It would have been at test question making plain his intentions to begin with without expecting NATO to interfere.

[LuckyR]

Oh I don't know, my observation is that the response is typical for a European ground war.

IN the last 50 years the main European ground wars were in the former Yugoslavia. I don't remember this much of an American media response (although, of course, we did end up bombing Serbia).

Another observation: Trump and his supporters see Russia as the last "truly European" country. OUr allies in Western Europe have all become multi-racial and multi-cultural nations. Racisim fuels Trumpite's respect for Putin and Russia.

Also, the media response is justified in that Russia is a world power and a threat. We didn't really need to fear Serbia, Croatia, or Bosnia. They weren't capable of threatening the major Western powers. Is Russia? They lack the economic power these days, but their military still packs a punch.

Overall, sounds like we're in agreement.