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Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

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UniversalAlien
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Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by UniversalAlien » March 31st, 2013, 7:12 pm

Sometimes we watch or read about the news and good or bad it at least it makes some sense; Then you watch the North Korea saga unfolding and ask why? Why are the major powers, especially the USA and China, who are currently engaging in much profitable business, allowing a petty two-bit dictatorship to threaten world stability? Why doesn't the US and China make North Korea an 'offer it can't refuse' and tell them to cease and desist threatening world stability or face the consequences of a quick invasion? Or is China not really our friend at all and just letting the North Koreans continue their dangerous and provocative threats as they really want World War III? Or are there political agendas and philosophies going on that the public can not fathom?

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Spiral Out
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Spiral Out » March 31st, 2013, 7:18 pm

Agenda and philosophies that we cannot fathom? I think you give these "leaders" too much credit. It's just a bunch of buffoons engaging in buffoonery.
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MazerRackhem
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by MazerRackhem » April 1st, 2013, 12:04 am

I think one of the things to consider when we speak of North Korea which is different than other countries of similar global standard is that they posses nuclear warheads capable of targeting South Korea and Japan. I think this is largely why the global powers are loathe to engage them directly. The threat of devastating reprisal against our close allies is very real. Secondly there is the problem of diplomacy with China, the Chinese have historically viewed the world from a rather different paradigm than western civilizations. The Chinese have historically been very preoccupied with 'encirclement.' Although they clearly are no great lover of the North Korean dictatorship they view the region as a check on western aggression and see any US influence in the region as 'encroachment' on the sino-sphere of influence.

The Chinese maintain a foreign policy of off setting powers and were infamous during the later days of the cold war for playing the Americans off the Soviets and vis versa thus effectively keeping both from wielding too much influence over the Sino-Pacific arena. An invasion by China is largely unthinkable, the Chinese are very loathe to invade anywhere and believe that any part of China from history that does not belong to China today should be reclaimed (Taiwan, the Doku Islands, Manchuria, Outer Mongolia, etc.) but have practically no interest in occupation of countries they view as not historically Chinese. However, they likewise view an American invasion as an encroachment on the Chinese sphere of influence and would see the US influence in North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc. as 'encirclement' by American forces. Since the Chinese diplomacy rests heavily on the ability to play one neighbor off the next, the greatest threat to Chinese security in the mind of the Chinese is to be encircled by one power, and thus have only one neighbor with no counter force to play the threat off against.

Thus the American's see the cost of invasion as too high since their allies in South Korea would likely suffer, perhaps very greatly, and relations with China would become troublesome at best, hostile at worst. The Chinese likewise see an invasion of North Korea as a more or less wasteful extension of resources toward a land they have no interest in governing. On top of this, while China's relation with its neighbor become ever more frosty, China still views North Korea as a useful tool in checking the re-pivoting of American military and political power toward the Pacific. China expends minimal international resources on North Korea, as long as the US is caught up in negotiations and surveillance of North Korea it has that much less resources to expend elsewhere in the region.

In my opinion that is more or less why the situation in North Korea remains such as it is.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Jklint » April 1st, 2013, 1:01 am

MazerRackhem wrote:I think one of the things to consider when we speak of North Korea which is different than other countries of similar global standard is that they posses nuclear warheads capable of targeting South Korea and Japan. I think this is largely why the global powers are loathe to engage them directly. The threat of devastating reprisal against our close allies is very real. Secondly there is the problem of diplomacy with China, the Chinese have historically viewed the world from a rather different paradigm than western civilizations. The Chinese have historically been very preoccupied with 'encirclement.' Although they clearly are no great lover of the North Korean dictatorship they view the region as a check on western aggression and see any US influence in the region as 'encroachment' on the sino-sphere of influence.
What you write is quite interesting and seems quite credible in the way you describe it but it also has a great deal implication for China.

For one thing, if China wants to control its so called sphere of influence it has to manage maverick countries like North Korea lest the Americans are forced to further interfere in that region. As for the North Koreans, in spite of not getting along too well with big brother they know that China will veto every action against them and may even expect China to protect them, or join in the fray against the West if there is a conflict not out of love but self interest.

In short, the Chinese game of playing off one power against the other as you mentioned is one the North Koreans are also playing in creating a chess board of American and Chinese players. Though definitely a major concern, I think this more than any nuclear capability of the N.K is what is keeping Americans restrained...at least for now.

In any case, that's my uninformed geopolitical comment.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by UniversalAlien » April 1st, 2013, 1:29 am

Other elements to consider are these: Whereas WWII was planed and caused by the Axis powers and was possibly inevitable, WWI seemed to develop, at least partially, by accident when one lone nut assassinated a major political figure and set off the chain of events which led to the First World War. Now with North Korea hell bent on destabilizing the area and possibly even desiring a large war to suit it's own psychotic agenda {my opinion}. it would appear that unless the now small differences between China and the West should at least be temporarily put aside until the loose canon {North Korea} is stabilized; Neither China, which at least for now is profiting much to its own advantage from World and US trade, nor the US which is now relying on a great deal or Chinese manufacturing, stands much to gain by allowing N. Korea to generate a war whether by design or accident. We spent many years, much money, and lost many lives to eliminate Sodom Hussein and his attempt to destabilize the Middle East; How long would it take to eliminate the threat of North Korea if China and the US agreed to do so? To allow N. Korea to continue is like the US and China playing Russian Roulette with World History.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Zjh12 » April 3rd, 2013, 1:16 pm

Seems a good topic for a first post:

I'm going to take a different stance, and say that, no, I do not think North Korea will be the catalyst for the next World War. Why not? Well first of all, the economic, societial, and cultural factors in both Koreas are different than those in the Western world to the point that analyzing this from the traditional western perspective is flawed. If France sank an Itlalian vessel or if Italy shelled Corscia, then yes, the fears of general war would perhaps be well-founded. But while such events would represent a drastic evalation of force elsewhere, this is pretty much status-quo for the pennisula. Since this kind of saber-rattling is the norm, both societies are built with this sort of brink of destruction attitude as the core. It's quite simply in the leaders' best interests (especially for the North) to continue to play the game, in the short run it keeps the populace united, and in the long run it keeps the country prepared in case the other side actually does do something drastic.

Most military thinkers, Sun Tzu and Clausewitz especially, believe that if a side views a war as inevitable then they ought to take action to initate the war on the most favorable terms possible. I.e. American Civil War, most countries' entry in WWII, and US 2003 Iraq. North Korea has had more favorable moments than this in the past sixty years, heck they've had better chances over the past six. Diplomatically speaking, the odd "state of war" that exsists in Korea would theoretically favor a North invasion, since it could be interpreted by China/Russia/whoever else wants to side with N.Korea as not an outright unprovoked invasion, but a nessecary resumption of hostilities. But they won't do that, because a conventional war will bog down into trench slaughter, with no winner, a nuclear war would be assured destruction, and in either case, they're better off just rattling the saber than actually using it.

Bottom line, is a major North Korean military action would be in response to a world wide conflict, rather than the opening salvos of it. If I had to go further and guess when we will see an end to the present state of affairs, the answer is that a unified Korea will occur only when the balance of power shifts to the point where a unified Korea is not unpalatable to any of the major players in the region. I.e., not anytime soon!

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Xris » April 3rd, 2013, 3:06 pm

China as an emerging economic power has no interest in military activity. Korea is just as much as problem for them as it is for America.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Darshan » April 4th, 2013, 6:29 pm

Earthellism, a philosophy, can be used as a framework to deal with North Korea. The new dictator has converted himself from a human being to a human devil. He commits passive genocide on his own people (by starvation) then threatens to commit active genocide on S. Korea and the USA. North Korea is extreme hell on earth where 3 generations are tortured for the political dissent of one and where people are starved and when they resort to cannabilism, they are executed. In this context, their threats are bogus and they want us to over react. They are using military threats to cover up their crimes against humanity. They are using military actions as an excuse to not feed their own people. Shine a very bright light on their on-going passive genocide and began a trial for crimes against humanity against their new dictator.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Simply Wee » April 4th, 2013, 8:14 pm

The Chinese hold their cards as close as Mao did. Maybe they will provoke a regime change that works to their benefit, rather than having outside powers muscle in. It's really their call, I would call such an action a swoop! One only they can profit from. I think the saber rattling from the North to be no more than a flailing leadership, one that if left unchecked might start something much worse than cyber. I think for the world to do nothing at this point, would be a grave mistake, but to remember that all we can really achieve is to force the Chinese to show their hand, something they are always going to be reluctant to do. I guess.
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Steve3007 » August 9th, 2017, 9:46 am

Maybe it's time once again to ask that question to which the nuns in "The Sound of Music" couldn't find a satisfactory answer:

How do you solve a problem like Korea?

When president Trump uses similar rhetoric to Kim Jong Un, with the fire and the fury, is it just his way of speaking Kim's language?

When Trump said: "We’ll handle North Korea. We’ll be able to handle North Korea. It will be handled. We handle everything." and when it was said that he would not tolerate a North Korea that could threaten the US, does this mean that a second Korean War is being planned as we speak from a New Jersey golf course?

Are we ok with this?

-- Updated Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:53 pm to add the following --

I guess I should acknowledge that the first Korean War (the M*A*S*H one) never officially ended. So I suppose it will just be part 2, after a 60 year interlude.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Razblo » August 9th, 2017, 10:46 pm

North Korea is not looking at committing suicide. The US will not attack Nth Korea. Nth Korea is just trying to look relevant as it doesn't want to be cut out of any deals.

Trump's "fire and fury" message was for China to hear because China is constructing a war with India for control of Bhutan. India wants to become a greater economic powerhouse by striking hydro deals with it's ally Bhutan. China feels threatened and would like to take Bhutan for itself. It has tried to construct roads in the Himalayas for military movements which Indian military has so far thwarted.

North Korea is a sideshow.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Burning ghost » August 10th, 2017, 1:02 am

Xris wrote:China as an emerging economic power has no interest in military activity. Korea is just as much as problem for them as it is for America.
Yes, and then the question comes what has led N.Korea to build a warhead in the first place? Is it because they have been continually threatened by the US who have already invaded most of the middle east region? Did they US do this in the name of "humanity"? I don't think so.

The pattern is continually the same with US foreign policy. Divide and conquer. They are the ones who fund foreign bodies to overthrow and assassinate leaders (or just go right in and do it themselves.) The purpose is to destabilse foreign nations so they stay on top.

When a US official was told about 500,000 children dying in Iraq war she said she thought "it was worth it". The kind of people who start these conflicts suffer from the same mindset.
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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Gertie » August 10th, 2017, 2:31 am

Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump are ridiculous man babies, determined to prove the banality of evil.

It's gob-smacking.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Greta » August 10th, 2017, 3:38 am

Gertie wrote:Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump are ridiculous man babies, determined to prove the banality of evil.

It's gob-smacking.
This tells us something important about reality. While we humans have long flirted with concepts such as merit and morality, unfortunately the world still operates on the basis that might is right.

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Re: Is North Korea the catalyst for World War III?

Post by Razblo » August 10th, 2017, 3:43 am

Gertie wrote:Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump are ridiculous man babies, determined to prove the banality of evil.

It's gob-smacking.
Oh, I see. So Trump created all this?

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