The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

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Sculptor1
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sculptor1 »

Sy Borg wrote: January 5th, 2022, 7:20 pm Brian is right. Repetition may be effective for masses who are kept too busy to contemplate anything too deeply. However, thinkers find the technique patronising and naive, which pretty well guarantees a hostile reception. In short, it's nagging.

Sculptor1 wrote: January 5th, 2022, 6:39 pmHospitals are full to bursting.
This is the key issue, and one that anti-vaxxers routinely ignore.

Once a certain people make an ideological decision, any information that does not support their case will be ignored or undermined. The religious is famous for this but the secular alt-right and extreme PC left are similar in this regard.
We live in a world where 60% of Republicans think the US election was stolen.
I do not expect much from people, but sometimes I just despair.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sculptor1 »

RJG wrote: January 5th, 2022, 7:54 pm
Sculptor1 wrote:Hospitals are full to bursting.
Sy Borg wrote:This is the key issue, and one that anti-vaxxers routinely ignore.
Both these comments are "red-herrings" and totally irrelevant to anything I've said.

Sculpt, what does "Hospitals are full to bursting" have anything to do with telling me how we get herd immunity?

And Sy, are you somehow falsely implying that I am an "anti-vaxxer"? ...if so, how did you get that impression from me saying we need vaccinations to get immune people to participate in achieving herd immunity???

Come on guys. Attack my actual words, not your strawman's. [apostrophe error}
Both these comments are true.
FOr some reason you do not like truth
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RJG
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by RJG »

JackDaydream wrote:The point where herd immunity is achieved is going to be difficult if the virus keeps mutating.
Yes, agreed. It's almost a catch-22 situation. It takes herd immunity to stop the continuous perpetuation of mutations. But because we have allowed the mutation to continue (by refusing to implement herd immunity sooner), it is now more difficult/dangerous to do so.

The longer we wait to take action (to implement herd immunity), the more new mutations we will have, thereby making it even more difficult/dangerous to stop the continuous perpetuations.

So what are our options?
Option 1. Should we just continue to be exclusively reactive - and try to develop a new vaccine/booster for every time a new mutation comes our way? …forever?

Option 2. Should we also try to be proactive - and shut down the perpetuation of mutations by implementing herd immunity?

If we choose option 2, then how do we do this? How do we get herd immunity protection? - answer: we do it by letting our healthy immune population unmask and fully socialize. Vaccinations will help give us more immune people. And if we get enough of these immune people to "participate" (socialize unmasked) in achieving herd immunity, then we have a chance.

Relying on option 1 is a dead-end game. It is logically impossible to vaccinate our way out of this mess. We cannot develop new vaccines at a faster pace then we are allowing the new and potentially more deadly mutations to occur. We can never catch up, we can only get deeper in the hole.

Sidenote: it is also physically impossible to hide (social distance and mask) our way out of this mess. Even if we put every human being on this planet inside a sterile spacesuit for 2 simultaneous and consecutive weeks and we had just one infraction, the pandemic would start all over again. It only takes one infection on this entire planet to start a pandemic (we have proof of that!).

So if we can't social distance our way out of this, and we can't vaccinate our way out of this, then how do we get out of this? Answer: implement herd immunity before it is too late; before we no longer have enough fire extinguishers (immune people) to put out the growing wildfire (covid mutations).


*******************
RJG wrote:Both these comments are "red-herrings" and totally irrelevant to anything I've said.
Sculptor1 wrote:Both these comments are true.
FOr some reason you do not like truth
"Red-herring" comments can be true, and still irrelevant.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sy Borg »

RJG, you are claiming that you are being cancelled. This is a blatant lie because you and your thread are here. I moved the thread to the proper place after a (valid) complaint was received.

You display zero understanding of biology. Your claims about virus mutations are wrong; viruses that become more dangerous make themselves extinct. That is why viruses tend to mutate to a cold or flu, because they maximises transmission. That is why there are many cold and flu viruses doing roughly the same thing; that's the steady state. Don't speak about biology unless you have spent the time to understand it, which you clearly have not done. Just one more 8Chan Viral Specialist.

Further, your desire for "herd immunity" ignores the situation of ICU staff, which you false claim is a "red herring". ICUs are exactly the reason why achieving herd immunity is being paced rather than rushed, as the latter would create carnage. You may think that the breakdown of the hospital system doesn't matter - after all, once hundreds of thousands die, what's a few thousand more, right?
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sculptor1 »

RJG wrote: January 6th, 2022, 5:17 pm "Red-herring" comments can be true, and still irrelevant.
No.
Eventually we will achive herd immunity so that, just like the common cold from which the Corona virus is derived, only infects when it mutates.
This aim will be achived more quickly with vaccinations.
But we can also preserve the lives of vulnerable people in the meantime with hands, face, space precautions.
There are two route to go down
1 your idea of removing all protections
2 continuing to achieve herd immunity more slowly

1. This will cause the health services to crash from too many cases. They are already at breaking point on many places. Your plan would double the death rate and impose long term illness for millions.

2. By careful use of precautions the time line is extended so that more people can be treated and their lives preserved. Herd immunity is achieved with fewer death and fewer insances of long term illness.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sculptor1 »

JackDaydream wrote:The point where herd immunity is achieved is going to be difficult if the virus keeps mutating.
Corona is, itself a mutation of the common cold. The new omicron is more infective and less damaging.
The mutation trajectory is likley to follow that direction with more infectiousness and less severity since such a mutation out competes more harmful strains BUT ONLY IF PEOPLE WITH SEVERE ILLNESS ISOLATE.
If you allow more dangerous strains to flourish as RJG suggests then it will be those strains that flourish.

Herd immunity will be achived with CORONA reverting to the common cold. This is best fascilitated by isolating harmful strains.
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RJG
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by RJG »

Sy Borg wrote:RJG, you are claiming that you are being cancelled. This is a blatant lie because you and your thread are here. I moved the thread to the proper place after a (valid) complaint was received.
I seriously doubt it was "valid".

Look Sy, my OP is nothing more than a simple exercise in logic where I use 5 facts from science to draw 2 logical conclusions. Nothing more!

If you think I've made an error listing any of the 5 facts of science, then point it out and let's correct it. My interest is in drawing logical conclusions from the facts of science.

If you think that I made a logic error in deriving my 2 conclusions, then please (specifically) point out the error in logic. I don't mind being proven wrong, but you gotta use logic, not insults, to show the error. (Much like in math, it takes math to show an error in math)

Sy Borg wrote:You display zero understanding of biology.
Biology is not involved in drawing logical conclusions.

Sy Borg wrote:Your claims about virus mutations are wrong…
What claim? Be specific. Are you talking about one of the 5 science facts or one of my 2 conclusions?

Sy Borg wrote:...viruses that become more dangerous make themselves extinct. That is why viruses tend to mutate to a cold or flu, because they maximises transmission. That is why there are many cold and flu viruses doing roughly the same thing; that's the steady state. Don't speak about biology unless you have spent the time to understand it, which you clearly have not done. Just one more 8Chan Viral Specialist.
Again, be specific, which premise/conclusion statement are you talking about?

Sy Borg wrote:Further, your desire for "herd immunity" ignores the situation of ICU staff, which you false claim is a "red herring". ICUs are exactly the reason why achieving herd immunity is being paced rather than rushed, as the latter would create carnage. You may think that the breakdown of the hospital system doesn't matter - after all, once hundreds of thousands die, what's a few thousand more, right?
You, and many others, seem to under the very FALSE impression that implementing herd immunity will cause lots of deaths/hospitalizations. Remember, only immune people participate in achieving herd immunity, and immune people, in general, don't die or need hospitalization if they get infected.


*******************
Sculptor1 wrote:Eventually we will achive herd immunity...
And exactly HOW do we achieve herd immunity? What is the mechanism that makes this happen?

Sculptor1 wrote:This aim will be achived more quickly with vaccinations.
Keep going. Please elaborate. How do vaccinations get us herd immunity? Please think this all the way through!

Sculpt, it is logically impossible to achieve herd immunity, if we keep our healthy immune people hidden (masked and socially distanced) away from the virus.

Scultptor1 wrote:But we can also preserve the lives of vulnerable people in the meantime with hands, face, space precautions.
Yes, good idea. Also we can insist that these vulnerable people mask up, stay away from potentially contaminated areas, and take vaccines.

Sculptor1 wrote: There are two route to go down
1 your idea of removing all protections
Huh? "remove all protections" ...what dos this mean? Implementing herd immunity only ADDS protection!

Sculptor1 wrote:2 continuing to achieve herd immunity more slowly
Please finish your thinking on this. HOW do we achieve herd immunity more slowly?

Scuptor1 wrote:1. This will cause the health services to crash from too many cases. They are already at breaking point on many places. Your plan would double the death rate and impose long term illness for millions.
It appears that you have also be fed FALSE propaganda about herd immunity. For who are all these people that are dying and crashing our health services?? Immune people are the ONLY ones that participate in achieving herd immunity, and they, in general don't die or need hospitalization when infected.

Sculptor1 wrote:2. By careful use of precautions the time line is extended so that more people can be treated and their lives preserved. Herd immunity is achieved with fewer death and fewer insances of long term illness.
Again, how is herd immunity achieved? ...just saying it is achieved by vaccinations doesn't cut it, exactly how does that mechanism work?

**************
Dear Sy Borg and Sculptor1 -- It seems the disconnect in our views is based on the facts that you do not understand the mechanism of herd immunity and that you have been falsely indoctrinated to believe that implementing herd immunity will lead to massive deaths and hospitalizations.

To better understand the mechanism of how herd immunity, review the famous "MOSQUITO ANALOGY". Contrary to Bad Science, healthy immune people do not die or need hospitalization when exposed to the virus, but they bring SIGNIFICANT safety to vulnerable people. Keeping healthy immune people masked up only allows the virus to continue to perpetuate (via mutations).
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sy Borg »

I won't go into detail because past experience debating you tells me that all that I say will be ignored, dismissed or misrepresented - dashed upon the rocks of dogma.
RJG wrote: January 7th, 2022, 8:21 am
Sy Borg wrote:Further, your desire for "herd immunity" ignores the situation of ICU staff, which you false claim is a "red herring". ICUs are exactly the reason why achieving herd immunity is being paced rather than rushed, as the latter would create carnage. You may think that the breakdown of the hospital system doesn't matter - after all, once hundreds of thousands die, what's a few thousand more, right?
You, and many others, seem to under the very FALSE impression that implementing herd immunity will cause lots of deaths/hospitalizations. Remember, only immune people participate in achieving herd immunity, and immune people, in general, don't die or need hospitalization if they get infected.
Case in point. Obviously there are variable outcomes. Without providing any logical reasoning, you claim that allowing COVID to run wild will not overrun ICUs. Never mind that they are already overrun so extra numbers based on your preferred social experiment would indeed create mayhem.

The key to risk management is understanding the stakes, which first requires acknowledgement that the stakes exist.

Herd immunity will happen, but it is a staged process, not something you can just let run free because medical resources are limited and, for some reason, people seem to feel the need to protect those made vulnerable by age or prior illness ...
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by JackDaydream »

@Sculptor1

Yes, it will be positive if it can get to the point of Covid being nothing more than a bad cold. The biggest problem which I see at the moment is knowing when and how to isolate. Each time I have any sore throat and cold I try to isolate and when I have taken tests they have come back negative. It just gets difficult to know when to isolate and it must be harder for people who are working because they have to work out whether they need to phone in sick or not.

Also, if people who are very sick need to self isolate they need to have somewhere to be able to isolate. I have thought about this quite a bit in relation to shared accommodation, which involves many people sharing a bathroom and the kitchen. If anyone in the house became really sick it would be almost impossible to self isolate because it would they would need to use the toilet and go to sinks for water. Also, it is becoming more common for a whole family or a group to be living in one room, so how would they isolate. It is also such a combination of people who may have had no vaccinations or those who have had all 3. Even a Covid_19 passport, which is meant to be on Smartphones may just mean that there is more phone theft, for people to gain access to venues.

The biggest question is how we can get to the point of herd immunity and it is not straightforward. If only it can happen it would be fantastic.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

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RJG wrote:You, and many others, seem to under the very FALSE impression that implementing herd immunity will cause lots of deaths/hospitalizations. Remember, only immune people participate in achieving herd immunity, and immune people, in general, don't die or need hospitalization if they get infected.
Sy Borg wrote:Case in point. Without providing any logical reasoning, you claim that allowing COVID to run wild will not overrun ICUs. Never mind that they are already overrun so extra numbers based on your preferred social experiment would indeed create mayhem.
Firstly,
You are telling a dishonest 'non-truth' (a damn lie) with your words "you claim that allowing COVID to run wild...". Sy, Please stop making up stuff! ...use my actual words ...not your "strawman's"!

Secondly,
Logically, immune people are immune because they don't get sick and die when infected.
Logically, if they don't get sick and die when infected, then they are not going to "overrun the ICU's and create mayhem".
Logically, mathematically, statistically, and scientifically herd immunity ADDS protection to vulnerable people.

Again, you have been conned; you have been pre-conditioned (brainwashed; indoctrinated) to believe that implementing herd immunity will cause mass deaths/hospitalizations. You have bought into a non-truth (a damn lie).

Sy Borg wrote:The key to risk management is understanding the stakes, which first requires acknowledgement that the stakes exist. I do not expect you to logically appreciate this fact but to dig in.
If YOU understood Risk Management then you would know that Individual Risk is determined by Total Risk divided the Number of People sharing that risk. The more people that share in the total risk the proportionally lower risk is to any one individual.

Furthermore, and assuming that you truly do understand Risk Management and Assessment, you would then realize that when an immune person disproportionally shares a greater portion of the Total Risk, this conveys a much greater level of safety to the vulnerable. If you don't understand any of this, it is illustrated beautifully in the famous Mosquito Analogy.

And again, if YOU truly understood Risk Management and Assessment you would not have bought into the damn lie (that herd immunity causes mass deaths/hospitalizations).

Sy Borg wrote:The key to risk management is understanding the stakes, which first requires acknowledgement that the stakes exist. I do not expect you to logically appreciate this fact but to dig in.
I think these words should be directed at YOU, as it is you that does NOT truly understand Risk Assessment nor the basic logic involved.


**********************
JackDaydream wrote:The biggest question is how we can get to the point of herd immunity and it is not straightforward. If only it can happen it would be fantastic.
For starters, all healthy vaccinated people should NOT wear face masks and they should FULLY SOCIALIZE in as many places and with as many people as possible. The more healthy vaccinated people that do this, the greater the protective effect. And if we can get enough people to do this, then we can effective stop any future mutations of this virus (if it is not already too late; i.e. if we have already passed the point-of-no-return).
Last edited by RJG on January 7th, 2022, 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sy Borg »

RJG wrote: January 7th, 2022, 4:12 pm
Sy Borg wrote:The key to risk management is understanding the stakes, which first requires acknowledgement that the stakes exist. I do not expect you to logically appreciate this fact but to dig in.
I think these words should be directed at YOU, as it is you that does NOT truly understand Risk Assessment nor the basic logic involved.
I worked in risk management for years, buddy boy. You are far out of your depth here. I also note that your claims that I lied are actual lies.

You are behaving like a zealot with with an axe to grind, overcome by emotion. By contrast, I'm just interested in being logical about whatever is being discussed and ensuring that COVID misinformation on the forum is countered.

It's times like that that being a mod is unpleasant. I can't readily delete the threads like Facebook or news forums because philosophy is about countering rather than censorship. However, there could be legal implications in allowing misinformation to stand uncontested. Thus, I am forced to provide counter, despite my distaste.

Meanwhile you won't even accept that hospitals are already overrun or that increased cases means increases caseloads for a system already stretched to breaking point.

I see no benefit in continuing this conversation. I will just go on record as saying:

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT COVID MISINFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS THREAD THAT CANNOT BE TRUSTED.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by RJG »

Sy Borg, how about responding with logic and reason and not with insults? If you believe I'm wrong somewhere, then please specifically show the error with your proof. Simply saying that I am wrong with nothing other than insults to back it up is not very convincing. For those who argue with insults, are those that have lost the argument (have nothing rational left to argue with).

Sy Borg wrote:Thus, I am forced to provide counter, despite my distaste.
Please show your "counter" argument/proof, not your "insults". ...I'll wait!

Sy Borg wrote:Meanwhile you won't even accept that hospitals are already overrun or that increased cases means increases caseloads for a system already stretched to breaking point.
Yes, some hospitals are overrun, and more cases will makes it more difficult. BUT what does this have to do with the price of tea in China? (...or what does this have to do with anything I've said?). -- Please explain how immune people participating in herd immunity causes "mayhem" to our medical system. ...the answer is: they don't!

Sy Borg wrote:PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT COVID MISINFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE MEMBER RJG IN THIS THREAD THAT CANNOT BE TRUSTED.
This is a tell-tale sign of a "cancel-culture" mobster. Sy Borg, the best way to prove me wrong, is to prove me wrong. Putting out slanderous comments (like above) is not very professional.

Good Day Sy Borg.
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sy Borg »

This is why health authorities are cautious in their approach to herd immunity:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... th-systems

"Omicron is causing record numbers of cases around the world, and though it causes less severe Covid-19 experts warn this wave still threatens to overwhelm health systems."

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 561_1.html

"Soaring Omicron cases threaten US hospitals, rivaling 2020 pandemic peak "

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/0 ... s-j08.html

"US health staff forced to work while infected with COVID-19" (this is happening in Australia too)
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by RJG »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/speeding-i ... 1641847062

Interesting article from Wall Street Journal.

Very interesting. And Yes, the masking and social distancing of our healthy population is the direct cause of the perpetuation (continued mutations) of this virus (and the resulting massive destruction of lives). Logic tells us this. Following Bad Science (science that disregards logic) is our downfall.

If we want to stop this virus, then healthy people need to unmask and fully socialize asap.

I am hoping that the swift spread of Omicron is a "gift from the heavens" to save us all from our stupidity of following the very Bad Science.

I am hoping people, especially healthy people, don't foolishly mask up and social distance during this Omicron wave. If they do, or the government mandates we do, then things will only get worse.

Follow the Logic!
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid

Post by Sy Borg »

Those struggling in an already overburdened health system are less convinced of Rupert Murdoch's logic.

Omicron is already spreading like wildfire. It hardly needs help in spreading. Widespread transmission is already happening, and very quickly too. It's too quick for some and not quick enough for others.
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