The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
- RJG
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The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
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Here are the simple SCIENTIFIC facts (premise statements):
P1. Vaccinations, by themselves, don't stop this virus.
P2. Vaccinations help produce "immune" people.
P3. Only herd immunity stops this virus. This virus will continue to mutate, mutation after mutation, with potentially more contagious and deadly variants, until we achieve herd immunity.
P4. If enough immune people "participate" in achieving herd immunity, then we can stop this virus.
P5. Immune people cannot stop the transmission of the virus if they are isolated from the virus. To "participate" in stopping the transmission of the virus, an immune person must non-isolate themselves. They must fully socialize, unmasked.
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Here are the simple LOGICAL conclusions:
C1. Therefore, vaccination + masking immune people = no herd immunity.
C2. Therefore, no herd immunity = the virus will continue to perpetuate with potentially more contagious and deadly mutations = more deaths.
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At some point in time, we HAVE TO commit to implementing herd immunity. Herd immunity, as any legitimate scientist/medical professional will vouch for, is the ONLY way to stop the further continuation of mutations. We can do it now, or we can wait for 10 new mutations to occur (and many more deaths) and then do it.
Our choice.
- chewybrian
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
- RJG
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
- Sculptor1
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
- Sculptor1
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
Depends. This is a poor start for a logical discussion. Vaccinations by themselves prepare and protect the body from the disease the virus causes.RG1 wrote: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
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Here are the simple SCIENTIFIC facts (premise statements):
P1. Vaccinations, by themselves, don't stop this virus.
What is "immune people"? More vauge terminology. Vaccinations stimulate the immunes system to prepare for virus infections.
P2. Vaccinations help produce "immune" people.
If, as you say the virus continues to mutate then we shall never achive herd immunity.P3. Only herd immunity stops this virus. This virus will continue to mutate, mutation after mutation, with potentially more contagious and deadly variants, until we achieve herd immunity.
Maybe, maybe not. because of the vector of the disease and the infectiveness of the disease the likleyhood that we are going to ever stop this virus is highly unlikely. The viruses that cause COVID are akin to the common cold and are likley to become part of the new normal.P4. If enough immune people "participate" in achieving herd immunity, then we can stop this virus.
No one is effectively isolated from the virus at this time. The number of new infections each day prohibit any chance of the health systems coping with the new variant/P5. Immune people cannot stop the transmission of the virus if they are isolated from the virus. To "participate" in stopping the transmission of the virus, an immune person must non-isolate themselves. They must fully socialize, unmasked.
SInce every single one of your premises are faulty, naive, or simplistic, there are no valid conclusions to be had.
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Here are the simple LOGICAL conclusions:
It is not possible to determine who is "immune", who will get mild disease and who will die.
C1. Therefore, vaccination + masking immune people = no herd immunity.
But statistics have shown that vaccinations prevent serious illness and assist on the raod to heard immunity, and that masking can reduce the viral load, making it easier to achieve immunity when infected, and to avoid infection all together in some cases.
Vaccination contributes to herd immunity more effectively than not having vaccinations, since vaccinated people who become infected achieve immunity with no severe illness.
Wrong.C2. Therefore, no herd immunity = the virus will continue to perpetuate with potentially more contagious and deadly mutations = more deaths.
The new Omicron variation emerged from a population with very low vaccination rates.
The Delta came from unvaccinated people.
The best way to contribute to herd immunity is TO GET VACCINATED.
We already are it is called a VACCINATION programme.
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At some point in time, we HAVE TO commit to implementing herd immunity.
Yes. so shut the **** up, put your needle shyness in your baby box and get yourself vaccinated.Herd immunity, as any legitimate scientist/medical professional will vouch for, is the ONLY way to stop the further continuation of mutations. We can do it now, or we can wait for 10 new mutations to occur (and many more deaths) and then do it.
Chose life!
Our choice.
- Sculptor1
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
No one is saying vaccinations stop virus(whatever that means). And nothing you have presented here argues for or against that.RJG wrote: ↑January 5th, 2022, 8:49 am Chewy, this is different. This is more about the false belief that "vaccinations stop this virus". Vaccinations do not stop this virus. Immune people do. Vaccinations help give us immune people. And if immune people participate in achieving herd immunity, then we can stop the virus. If they don't, then we don't stop the virus. ...agreed?
Vaccinations simulate immunty. You have a massive contradiction when you say " Vaccinations do not stop this virus. Immune people do."
I'm not sure why you are carrying this confusion. But if you want some help, please ask.
- RJG
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
Where's the contradiction?Scuptor1 wrote:You have a massive contradiction when you say " Vaccinations do not stop this virus. Immune people do."
1. A gives us B.
2. B who does C gives us D
1. Vaccinations (immunizations) give us "immune" people.
2. Immune people who participate in achieving herd immunity (i.e. socialize unmasked), help stop the virus.
Very straightforward.
Okay, so then tell us how vaccinations get us herd immunity?Sculptor1 wrote:Vaccinations are the best way to contribute to herd immunity.
Answer:
1. Vaccinations (immunizations) give us "immune" people.
2. If enough immune people participate in achieving herd immunity (i.e. socialize unmasked), then this will get us herd immunity.
...agreed?
- Sculptor1
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
1. No it does not.
2. Neither does thins work.
I do not think you have bothered to read my comments.
Hospitals are full to bursting.
1. Vaccinations (immunizations) give us "immune" people.
2. Immune people who participate in achieving herd immunity (i.e. socialize unmasked), help stop the virus.
Very straightforward.
Logic is meaningless when people are alrady dying needlessly.
Okay, so then tell us how vaccinations get us herd immunity?Sculptor1 wrote:Vaccinations are the best way to contribute to herd immunity.
Answer:
1. Vaccinations (immunizations) give us "immune" people.
2. If enough immune people participate in achieving herd immunity (i.e. socialize unmasked), then this will get us herd immunity.
...agreed?
- Sy Borg
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
This is the key issue, and one that anti-vaxxers routinely ignore.
Once a certain people make an ideological decision, any information that does not support their case will be ignored or undermined. The religious is famous for this but the secular alt-right and extreme PC left are similar in this regard.
- RJG
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
Sculptor1 wrote:Hospitals are full to bursting.
Both these comments are "red-herrings" and totally irrelevant to anything I've said.Sy Borg wrote:This is the key issue, and one that anti-vaxxers routinely ignore.
Sculpt, what does "Hospitals are full to bursting" have anything to do with telling me how we get herd immunity?
And Sy, are you somehow falsely implying that I am an "anti-vaxxer"? ...if so, how did you get that impression from me saying we need vaccinations to get immune people to participate in achieving herd immunity???
Come on guys. Attack my actual words, not your strawman's.
- Sy Borg
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
I note that you dodged the key issue by instead focusing on rules of engagement. Point taken on anti-vaxxer, so I'll retract that one. Now you can return the compliment by acknowledging that vaccination rules have been made to protect the health system, especially ICUs.RJG wrote: ↑January 5th, 2022, 7:54 pmSculptor1 wrote:Hospitals are full to bursting.Both these comments are "red-herrings" and totally irrelevant to anything I've said.Sy Borg wrote:This is the key issue, and one that anti-vaxxers routinely ignore.
Sculpt, what does "Hospitals are full to bursting" have anything to do with telling me how we get herd immunity?
And Sy, are you somehow falsely implying that I am an "anti-vaxxer"? ...if so, how did you get that impression from me saying we need vaccinations to get immune people to participate in achieving herd immunity???
Come on guys. Attack my actual words, not your strawman's.
If a cheap and easy technology existed to quickly assess the antibodies of a person, then the issue of vaccination would be moot. People would then be discriminated against based on antibody status rather than vaccination status, which is more logical.
However, just as all dogs are required to be leashed on the street, even though most would cause zero problems, all people are required to be vaccinated to access certain venues. It's not fair, sure, but it's the "shorthand" that governments use in lieu of adequate administration or technology.
- LuckyR
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
Among the numerous errors contained within this post, probably the most important is the idea that the Covid virus will be "stopped". It is almost certainly going to become endemic, just like the flu virus, which similarly was not "stopped" by the many decades of flu vaccinated people not quaratined nor wearing masks.RJG wrote: ↑January 5th, 2022, 8:27 am The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
***************
Here are the simple SCIENTIFIC facts (premise statements):
P1. Vaccinations, by themselves, don't stop this virus.
P2. Vaccinations help produce "immune" people.
P3. Only herd immunity stops this virus. This virus will continue to mutate, mutation after mutation, with potentially more contagious and deadly variants, until we achieve herd immunity.
P4. If enough immune people "participate" in achieving herd immunity, then we can stop this virus.
P5. Immune people cannot stop the transmission of the virus if they are isolated from the virus. To "participate" in stopping the transmission of the virus, an immune person must non-isolate themselves. They must fully socialize, unmasked.
***************
Here are the simple LOGICAL conclusions:
C1. Therefore, vaccination + masking immune people = no herd immunity.
C2. Therefore, no herd immunity = the virus will continue to perpetuate with potentially more contagious and deadly mutations = more deaths.
***************
At some point in time, we HAVE TO commit to implementing herd immunity. Herd immunity, as any legitimate scientist/medical professional will vouch for, is the ONLY way to stop the further continuation of mutations. We can do it now, or we can wait for 10 new mutations to occur (and many more deaths) and then do it.
Our choice.
- RJG
- Posts: 2767
- Joined: March 28th, 2012, 8:52 pm
Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
Sy, what does any of this have to do with my topic? This seems to be an off-topic (unrelated) discussion.Sy Borg wrote:Now you can return the compliment by acknowledging that vaccination rules have been made to protect the health system, especially ICUs.
If a cheap and easy technology existed to quickly assess the antibodies of a person, then the issue of vaccination would be moot. People would then be discriminated against based on antibody status rather than vaccination status, which is more logical.
However, just as all dogs are required to be leashed on the street, even though most would cause zero problems, all people are required to be vaccinated to access certain venues. It's not fair, sure, but it's the "shorthand" that governments use in lieu of adequate administration or technology.
The point of my topic is that we can't reach herd immunity without the participation of immune people. - Vaccinations help give us immune people. And immune people that participate in herd immunity help us achieve herd immunity.
According to Dr. Fauci, covid will certainly continue and become worse if we don't try to reach herd immunity. The protective effect of herd immunity is an undeniable scientific fact (as well as being an irrefutable logical/mathematical truth).LuckyR wrote:…probably the most important is the idea that the Covid virus will be "stopped". It is almost certainly going to become endemic, just like the flu virus, which similarly was not "stopped" by the many decades of flu vaccinated people not quaratined nor wearing masks.
The point of my post is that not only do we need more vaccinations (as per Fauci) to help get us enough immune people, but we also need these immune people to also "participate" in achieving herd immunity. Vaccinations without participation will not get us herd immunity!
- JackDaydream
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
I am not against vaccines or masks but do think that it sometimes gives a false sense of security to people who have followed these guidelines. Some people seem to think that if they have been vaccinated or wear a mask that they cannot get Covid. I am fed up with telling a few people who I know that they are not protected through wearing a mask. Other people seem to refuse to believe that vaccines have any importance. Sometimes, there seems to be a lack of balanced thinking.
Part of the problem may be that so much is unknown. It is hard to be sure how many variants may yet be on the horizon. In England there is already talk of starting a fourth vaccine and it does lead me to wonder how on earth many are going to follow. There is some hope that Omicron has reached its peak but how long will it be before another variant comes along. It could go on for years potentially but I am prepared to be vaccinated but do struggle so much with masks because they steam up my glasses and I have knocked items over in shops as a result.
The point where herd immunity is achieved is going to be difficult if the virus keeps mutating. It is like how superbugs seem to occur in the most cleanest environments like hospitals. Fighting the virus is like a war against evil, with Covid being the new enemy, almost taking over from the fight against terrorism
- Sy Borg
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Re: The Simple Science (and Logic) of Covid
Once again, you avoid the issue. The primary limit on herd immunity is the overloading of ICUs and the hospital system generally. That is the cause of your months of repetitive bellyaching about COVID responses.RJG wrote: ↑January 6th, 2022, 7:49 amSy, what does any of this have to do with my topic? This seems to be an off-topic (unrelated) discussion.Sy Borg wrote:Now you can return the compliment by acknowledging that vaccination rules have been made to protect the health system, especially ICUs.
If a cheap and easy technology existed to quickly assess the antibodies of a person, then the issue of vaccination would be moot. People would then be discriminated against based on antibody status rather than vaccination status, which is more logical.
However, just as all dogs are required to be leashed on the street, even though most would cause zero problems, all people are required to be vaccinated to access certain venues. It's not fair, sure, but it's the "shorthand" that governments use in lieu of adequate administration or technology.
The point of my topic is that we can't reach herd immunity without the participation of immune people. - Vaccinations help give us immune people. And immune people that participate in herd immunity help us achieve herd immunity.
You rail about masks while refusing to face the reason for the mandates.
Your first conclusion, oddly named "C1" as though it was part of a logical exercise - which it is not - is dicey at first glance. How can an American think for even a moment that all of the population will obey COVID rules? Maybe by being in a coma for the last decade or so? Whatever germs you have WILL spread because the US populace lacks the collective character to pull together for the greater good, eg. reducing case loads so that ICUs are not overwhelmed.
Your second conclusion - grandly titled C2, no less - is simply wrong. The answer lies in the reason why seasonal colds and flus don't mutate into lethal strains each year, causing pandemics every season. Can you guess it?
Again, it's pointless to rail about masks if one does not take strain on the health system seriously.
Oh, and if we are going to treat the key issue as off-topic, I note that this thread has nothing to do with the Philosophy of Science; it is single issue activism and the thread will be moved to an appropriate place on the forum.
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