Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
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Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
Does legally owning a gun correlate to a significant difference in the statistical likelihood of the gun owner committing violent crime? If so, does the evidence provided only provide evidence of correlation or does it provide evidence (even if weak evidence) of causality? Does the evidence provided strongly indicate a true correlation with actually committing violent crime or (more likely) only provide a correlation between gun ownership and being charged and/or convicted of violent crime? For what factors do the studies control (e.g. income, race, gender, age, etc.)? Keep in mind, any uncontrolled factors in a correlation study could be the true causal link leading to the thus relatively meaningless non-causal correlation.
Please don't respond with gut feelings or anecdotes, or otherwise answers to the question given without evidence. I am not asking for you to just state your conclusion/answer without evidence. Rather, I am asking you to provide evidence, namely presumably scientific statistical studies from credible sources, that the rest of us can then use to draw our own evidence-based conclusions.
If you don't have any evidence to provide, feel free to not post a reply at all. You don't have to reply to this forum post, so don't feel pressure to participate in this topic.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
This is not controversial.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
For an inverted example, The first meaning makes the hero someone who is committing a violent crime with a gun, while the second meaning makes the thug someone who is committing a violent crime without a gun in the following example: A thug accosts a victim in the street, demanding the victims wallet and a struggle ensues in which the the thug is beating the victim. A passerby illegally carrying a gun pulls it out and threatens the thug who doesn't listen, and then the passerby fires the gun, hitting the thug and thus stopping the victim from being further beaten.
The question of what falls into the category "violent crime" will have an effect on the answer to your questions.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
If I had take a bet without significant evidence, I'd ignorantly bet legal gun owners are much less likely to commit violent crimes for the reasons you mention. Hopefully, someone can find and provide very convincing credible evidence that supports that conclusion.LuckyR wrote: ↑March 20th, 2019, 5:38 pm It's my understanding that legal gun owners are much less likely to commit gun crimes. The reasons for this are several: firstly and most importantly, the group most likely to commit gun crimes are (by definition) illegal gun owners, which, again by definition are wholly excluded from the legal gun ownership category. Secondly, legal gun owners are skewed towards several subgroups, the elderly, the rurally located, law enforcement and veterans, all with a below average risk of gun crime commission.
Indeed, we are only on Q2 of the series, so that is the point.
That is a very good point. Nonetheless, I would be extremely interested in convincing credible evidence that shows a statistical link between legal gun ownership and the commission of "violent crime" that use a definition of "violent crime" that differs greatly from my own. Beggars can't be choosers, so I'll take the evidence I can get regarding the link between gun ownership and the commission of "violent crime" however defined. If there's too much credible evidence for varying definitions then I definitely think it would be important to not weight the different scientific studies equally but rather debate which one defines "violent crime" most accurately.
You make a very good point. Any credible scientific statistical studies provided need to be taken with the understanding that it only shows the link between gun ownership and the commission of what the scientists defined as "violent crime" for the purposes of that study. Luckily, most credible scientific studies should be very upfront and clear in how the defined the key terminology used and very clear about how they categorized that which they studied (e.g. into violent vs non-violent crime).
If anyone in this discussions needs a specific explicit definition be provided upfront, I'd be fine to use the below definitions I've bolded of "violent" and "crime" from Merriam Webster:
Merriam Webster wrote:Definition of violent
1a(1) : marked by the use of usually harmful or destructive physical force
a violent attack violent crime The peaceful demonstration turned violent.
(2) : showing or including violence
violent movies
b : extremely powerful or forceful and capable of causing damage
violent storms violent coughing
2 : caused by physical force or violence : not natural
a violent death
3a : emotionally agitated to the point of using harmful physical force
became violent after an insult
b : prone to commit acts of violence
violent prison inmates
4a : notably forceful, furious, or vehement
a violent argument a violent denunciation
b : extreme, intense
violent pain violent colors
[Emphasis added.]
In slightly plainer language, for the purposes of this discussion in this forum topic, we can combine those two definitions to define "violent crime" as an illegal act marked by the use of harmful or destructive physical force.Merriam Webster wrote: Definition of crime
1 : an illegal act for which someone can be punished by the government
especially : a gross violation of law
2 : a grave offense especially against morality
3 : criminal activity
efforts to fight crime
4 : something reprehensible, foolish, or disgraceful
It's a crime to waste good food.
[Emphasis added.]
But if one wants to further elaborate the definition or use a different definition, that's fair. I only ask one try very hard to be clear in what they mean (e.g. specify the different definition being used when using the term in a different way).
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I believe spiritual freedom (a.k.a. self-discipline) manifests as bravery, confidence, grace, honesty, love, and inner peace.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
It is also likely to be a correlative study, so the question as to causality is itself problematic and doing so is opening up the trojan horse of bias. Also, from what we see over and over and over again, that as we add more and more factors into such pattern seeking (predicting), the less and less reliable patterns we see until the correlations are flat.
Scientifically speaking this is not a good question to ask.
Philosophically this is just gamesmanship and doesn't help the discussion of gun control because without actual data but instead 'if so' conjectures, it is all biased.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
It is at its worst when it deludes us into thinking we have all the answers for everybody else.
Archibald Macleish.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
You're not as ignorant as you pretend. Since 43% of US households legally own guns but less than 20% of gun crimes (in Pittsburgh in the particular study) were used by the legal owner, my points are supported by the data. Of course, this is likely a correlation not a cause, but there you have it.Scott wrote: ↑March 21st, 2019, 10:07 amIf I had take a bet without significant evidence, I'd ignorantly bet legal gun owners are much less likely to commit violent crimes for the reasons you mention. Hopefully, someone can find and provide very convincing credible evidence that supports that conclusion.LuckyR wrote: ↑March 20th, 2019, 5:38 pm It's my understanding that legal gun owners are much less likely to commit gun crimes. The reasons for this are several: firstly and most importantly, the group most likely to commit gun crimes are (by definition) illegal gun owners, which, again by definition are wholly excluded from the legal gun ownership category. Secondly, legal gun owners are skewed towards several subgroups, the elderly, the rurally located, law enforcement and veterans, all with a below average risk of gun crime commission.
Indeed, we are only on Q2 of the series, so that is the point.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
You are correct but leaving out the fact that mass shootings account for a small fraction of total US gun morbidity
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
In fact, "legally owning a gun" is linked with "varification of overall competance" to hold a weapon like gun. Now it is basically wrong..... "to give" and "to enjoy" right to have gun (weapon) just on fundamental rights only. In last 200 years, we developed our social system in multifold rate.... but..... unfortunately with the same philosophy of democracy prescribed by Thomas Jefferson and others. If we are unable to develope social philosophy in matching space with our socio economic formation founded on latest science and technology...... different types of boils are surely going to trouble us..... the gun problem is one of them. Now this is the time..... democracy needs to be redefine along with fundamental rights in matching with prevailing socio economic formation.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
LuckyRLuckyR wrote: ↑March 21st, 2019, 4:16 pmYou're not as ignorant as you pretend. Since 43% of US households legally own guns but less than 20% of gun crimes (in Pittsburgh in the particular study) were used by the legal owner, my points are supported by the data. Of course, this is likely a correlation not a cause, but there you have it.Scott wrote: ↑March 21st, 2019, 10:07 am
If I had take a bet without significant evidence, I'd ignorantly bet legal gun owners are much less likely to commit violent crimes for the reasons you mention. Hopefully, someone can find and provide very convincing credible evidence that supports that conclusion.
Indeed, we are only on Q2 of the series, so that is the point.
What data? What study?
As far as I can see, nobody posted a single source or citation in this forum topic yet, let alone the link to a credible scientific statistical study.
Rederic ,
Please provide a credible source or citation for that statistic.
In any case, it's barely relevant to helping answer the overall titular question unless you can also provide a statistic that most instances of violent crime are mass shootings, and/or that the proportions of legal gunowners to non-legal gunowners is such that the above statistic reflects disproportion. (For example, if 90% of people in a certain area own guns legally, and only 60% of shootings of a certain type are by people using legally owned guns, then it could be simultaneously true that most of those types of shootings are done with legal guns AND at the same time legally owning the gun is correlated to a lower likelihood of committing such a shooting.).
Eddiecoyote, I agree. Let's do that first before (if ever) moving on to the "if so" portion of the question.Eddiecoyote wrote: ↑March 21st, 2019, 3:41 pm The "if so" portion is highly problematic. Instead of going off into conjecture of morality and causality, the first questions should have been how did they collect the data, was it biased, was the sample represetative of a population? Could we replicate it?
Harshad DaveHarshad Dave wrote: ↑March 22nd, 2019, 12:17 am I think the question incorporates irrelavant link between "legally owning a gun" and "likelihood of committing violent crime".
No, the question doesn't incorporate such a link. The question is asking whether there is a link.
Jan Sand, I agree we should be careful with statistics, such as whatever the statistical answer to the titular questions turns out to be. However, that's not the topic here. This forum topic is simply about what the statistics are, i.e. what the answer is to the titular question. The topic is not what we should do with the answer to the titular question. The topic is just what is the answer to the titular question.Jan Sand wrote: ↑March 22nd, 2019, 1:59 am One must be careful with statistics, Only once in the history of nuclear weapons has a couple of atomic bombs been used to kill many thousands of defenseless civilians to no purpose since Japan had already offered to surrender. The world has many nations fully armed with nuclear missiles but statistically there is no incidence of their being used. Does that statistic give the world any comfort?
"The mind is a wonderful servant but a terrible master."
I believe spiritual freedom (a.k.a. self-discipline) manifests as bravery, confidence, grace, honesty, love, and inner peace.
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Re: Gun Control Series Q2 -- Is legally owning a gun correlated to different likelihood of committing violent crime?
Ok if you don't believe me: https://www.upmc.com/media/news/fabio-firearmsScott wrote: ↑March 22nd, 2019, 12:38 pm@LuckyRLuckyR wrote: ↑March 21st, 2019, 4:16 pm
You're not as ignorant as you pretend. Since 43% of US households legally own guns but less than 20% of gun crimes (in Pittsburgh in the particular study) were used by the legal owner, my points are supported by the data. Of course, this is likely a correlation not a cause, but there you have it.
What data? What study?
As far as I can see, nobody posted a single source or citation in this forum topic yet, let alone the link to a credible scientific statistical study.
Is the lay synopsis from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. The study was published in the Journal of Social Medicine
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